Russia will not be able to abandon the gas transit through Ukraine – rossm

Russia’s Gazprom is stepping up the use of the Ukrainian route for the transportation of gas, and by the end of 2017 transit may be close to 100 billion cubic meters. This writes the Russian edition “Kommersant”.

“If the demand for Russian gas in Europe will remain at this level in the coming years, Gazprom will have to negotiate with Kiev on a new transit contract: alternative new pipelines Nord Stream 2 and “Turkish stream” will not be able to completely replace the route,” – noted in the material.

The increased performance of transit explains the growth of demand for Russian gas, and repair works on the gas pipeline “Yamal – Europe”, which passes through Belarus and Poland, resulting in about 300 million cubic meters of transit gas was in August transferred to the Ukrainian route.

The demand for Russian gas in Europe supported by growth of its use in the energy sector and the need for filling of underground storages (UGS), devastated after last cold winter. Filling of UGS in the EU at the beginning of September still lags behind the dynamics of 2016 by 8%.

In addition, from 11 to 22 September, will be completely shut down for the repair of the Nord Stream pipeline, “Yamal – Europe” is completely filled, and therefore, the flow of gas through Ukraine these days could rise to 150 – 160 million cubic meters per day. Already in January-August Ukrainian transit grew by 23.4%, to 61.9 billion cubic meters.


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Sources in the industry perceive the record-breaking Gazprom’s supplies to Europe this year, rather as an exception to the rule, caused by the coincidence of several favorable factors: the weather, the relatively low price of gas and a moderate level of competition. Now in “Gazprom” expect export growth to non-CIS countries up to 185 billion cubic meters and save it in the range 165 – 185 billion cubic meters per year in the medium term.

“But if the dynamics of demand for Russian gas will be more optimistic, Gazprom may have problems: after 2019, when it will expire transit contract with Ukraine, the monopoly may not be sufficient export capacity”, – writes the edition.

The plan of “Gazprom” consists in the construction of 2 of the Nord Stream (55 billion cubic meters) and the “Turkish stream” (32 billion cubic meters), while maintaining transit through Ukraine to 15 billion cubic meters per year. When you use new pipelines by 90%, “Gazprom” will have in the aggregate approximately 93 billion cubic meters capacity replacement for the Ukrainian route. This is less a forecast of the transit through Ukraine this year, but enough if we consider contractual volumes of consumers of Gazprom. “This circumstance can be the basis for talks on a new transit contract with Ukraine”, – sums up edition.

We will remind, in the middle of August the Cabinet of Ministers adopted the energy strategy of Ukraine for the period until 2035. In particular, the energy strategy implies the preservation of the transit of natural gas through Russian gas at the level of 50 – 80 billion cubic meters by 2019, but there is the option of reducing the transit of up to 15 – 40 billion cubic meters.