Today, after finishing the story with the “closure” of the Adriatic sea for the Russian, the whole game between Washington and Moscow is reduced to a huge geostrategic and economic interest, under which the world has long understood the geo-strategy aimed at the control of territories and energy resources. In this case the Americans decided in any way to prevent the construction of “Nord stream-2”, which should be laid directly in Germany parallel to the existing pipeline and that in Europe will receive additional volumes of Russian gas. The project has already invested a lot of money. In its implementation interested not only Russia and Germany but also France, Austria, Italy and some other European Union members.
In the first days of August the Balkan leaders very excited about the arrival of us Vice-President Penny in Podgorica. Technically, he rode to the summit of the Adriatic Charter. In fact it was an American gesture of gratitude to Montenegro for the “most important decision” to join NATO. In fact it was a “family” meeting, the purpose of which was to explain to new and old members of the family, the situation, and that they now expect. In addition, this meeting is a message to the other Balkan States that are not yet part of NATO, about what will happen to them when they become members of the Alliance, and that — if you don’t.
All this information Pence concluded in a few sentences. First, it caused a surge of enthusiasm among the majority of community small Adriatic state, saying that the determination of Montenegro, which joined NATO despite Russian pressure, an example for the world. He said confidently, and all people in Podgorica supported him, “Russia continues to seek a violent change in international borders, and here in the Western Balkans, Russia was trying to destabilize the region, undermine your democracy, and to separate you from each other and with the rest of Europe”. In the end, he assured the audience that the future of the Western Balkans — in the West. “We assure that the US is interested in building relationships that will strengthen ties between the two countries, the European community and the United States,” said Pence.
Outlet to the Adriatic sea
Mike Pence, who is his approach and how he explains the purpose and suggests democracy, many times surpassed Hillary Clinton, arrived in Podgorica after Estonia and Georgia. Their leaders, he also assured that they can rely on the United States, which “protect against Russian aggression”. In fact, “protection” has long begun. NATO is constantly increasing military presence on Russian borders and has raised at the feet of the media around the world to those hysterically announced Moscow is the only serious threat to security and peace on the planet. There is also North Korea, but with her everything is easier: to enter via UN sanctions, which the world has never seen before, and be done with it.
Back to the Balkans to the true reasons “sudden love”, which is in the form of mandatory instructions of the Vice-President of the United States expressed in Podgorica. These “feelings” there are two main and obvious reasons. The first is that work on the rallying of the ranks in the face of Russian planetary threat in the territory of the former Yugoslavia only half done, especially efforts to attract new members to NATO. Members of the “family” here is primarily Slovenia and Croatia, and now Montenegro. That is, 50% of. Not yet involved Serbia, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
All ideological aggressors inherent logic in the style of “whoever is not with us is against us”. Of course, between the three mentioned countries outside the Alliance, there are many differences, and very significant. Their political wisdom, guidance and ability to fight for their own interests will depend on further developments. Undoubtedly, their NATO membership is a prerequisite to ensure that Washington, especially the wing close to Mike Pence, took control of the whole region, which for US is vital. First of all, the US is keen to banish from the geopolitical space of the Russian and “stretch them in the stomach”. Second, the US wants to make a “gas” breakthrough with the Balkan parties in Central Europe and thus to deliver a crushing blow to the interests of Russia as a major provider of strategic energy in this market.
The goal is to take possession of the Western Balkans bound for America with more old Russian goal — to get to the Adriatic sea. After the breakup of Yugoslavia and formation of new States on the Adriatic coast of Montenegro was the only and last chance for the Russian to reach the goal. Still it seemed that the balance of power in the small but strategically important Montenegro was in favor of Russia, not the United States. Now it does not matter who overestimated their strength, made a mistake or misread the wind direction blowing in the Balkans. The deed is already done.
By the way, exit to the Adriatic country outside of NATO is still there; it is about port of Neum, but a role is played by the old tactic of Croatia, which avoids the completion of negotiations on the Maritime border with Bosnia and Herzegovina. Recently again became a crucial issue and Peleska the bridge. Croatia claims that it does not recognize “this issue,” how does not recognize and the Commission’s decisions in the dispute with Slovenia. In the materials of some of the Croatian media about “the end of the competition for the Adriatic” between Russia and the United States Neum is not mentioned in the context of rights of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the territorial waters. In fact, all it shows that our relationship remain unresolved in the Western Balkans, and how we submit to the powerful worlds. The most important thing for us is to be “someone’s”.
The Example Of Montenegro
Two seemingly minor incidents well illustrate the “love” great to small States, which appear when needed, and then is replaced by coldness, when interests change. First, the world laughed at shots taken at the NATO summit in Brussels in may of this year. Them in front of dozens of cameras Donald trump shoves like a sack impeding him to pass, the Montenegrin Prime Minister Dusko Markovic, to stand with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Less than three months, according to the Vice-President of the USA, Montenegro has become an example for the world due to its resistance to Russian pressure…
This statement Pence, motivated by purely pragmatic interests of America and not associated with love or at least some sympathy, is extremely painful perceived Croatia. While Montenegro has not declared “an example”, Croatia was considered a “leader in the region”, as such it was announced by the Americans in their seductive speeches in other circumstances. But in Podgorica, the Croats were forced to remain silent when Pens with full confidence said: “Montenegro has a leading role in safeguarding stability and security in the Western Balkans”. But Zagreb bought US an expensive aircraft, and at the NATO summit Croatian President comically pressed from the back rows closer to Donald Trump. Croatia was declared leader of the “Initiative of the three seas” (at least!)… And all this ill-fated Pens forgotten, saying the role of Montenegro… for nothing. Love is Love, business is business!
The same is happening with other local “leaders”. But in the Balkans was a true statesman who had much to learn, especially in regard to the dignity and enhance the international prestige of their country. Anyone in the world and in a head did not come to do him such parodies, in which every day ridiculed the so-called “leaders”. But something to learn from him, you need to have the ability not to lose self-esteem in any situation. New policies in the Balkans, with rare exceptions, did not understand that it is better when they even do not like, but respected, than when they are praised and supposedly love, and behind tell jokes.
Today, after finishing the story with the “closure” of the Adriatic sea for the Russian the whole game between Washington and Moscow is reduced to a huge geostrategic and economic interest, under which the world has long understood the geo-strategy aimed at the control of territories and energy resources. In this case the Americans decided in any way to prevent the construction of “Nord stream 2”, which will run directly to Germany in parallel to the existing pipeline, and that in Europe will receive additional volumes of Russian gas. The project has already invested a lot of money. In its implementation interested not only Russia and Germany but also France, Austria, Italy and some other European Union members. All they need that Russian gas is cheap, it comes directly and quickly. In addition, this project is beneficial for a number of industries and manufacturers of energy equipment for gas pipelines. For the “old” EU members (Germany and France) is especially crucial to European energy policy was approved in Brussels, not in Washington.
The Russians do not hide your additional concern: “Nord stream 2” rules of the game Ukraine, through which early Europeans did the bulk of Russian gas. Now Kiev risks losing billions of dollars a year. When the Americans began to flirt with Kiev in the interests of the EU (and in fact in the interests of NATO), ignoring the position of Moscow, which is not against Ukraine’s accession to the EU, but opposed to its NATO membership and the emergence of missiles on the Russian border, was all that happened. Ukraine had particularly tight. Europe pulled away, and America had not intervened, and was lost Crimea…
The American plan in Europe
Today, the American plan in Europe to stop the Russians and their gas. Once it has already happened when Bulgaria stopped to let its territory “South stream” the Russian gas to Europe through Greece and Italy… Now the Americans will have to solve at least two problems. First — you need to raise NATO member by convincing them that Moscow is the biggest threat to their existence, and that it will threaten their gas supplies. In this operation the US has ideological allies, especially in the former republics of the Soviet Union, the Baltic and Eastern European countries that are now part of the European Union. The first of the first here in Poland. Her ideological anger and fear for their own safety is still extremely high. The poles support the West in everything that is done against Moscow. In addition, a negative to Russia customized and Scandinavia. However, they are guided by other (economic) reasons. Still hesitating, the three mentioned Balkan States that have not yet joined NATO: Serbia, Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Closest to join the Alliance, now of Macedonia, led by Prime Minister Vladimir Sevim. To end the story with the name of the state is simple: the Americans only enough to hint to the Greeks, “we are talking about General strategy and security, and fines no.”
From the perspective of Washington, Bosnia and Herzegovina today is a problem because the Republika Srpska opposed the American project. The situation is complicated. Dayton reminded the Americans about their success (now they impose the same in Syria!). They can adjust and change the agreement as it is convenient only to them. Until we solved their own problems with the Dayton agreement could not be changed in any case! And, based on this philosophy, the European Union, grotesquely praised “the impressive success of Bosnia and Herzegovina on the path to Europe.”
Serbia is a different story. On the one hand, there is the Pro-Russian front, which stands against the EU and against NATO. Possibly acceptable for Serbia, and for the United States and Russia for certain reasons, option would be a half-hearted decision: Serbia enters the European Union, but does not become a NATO member. However, there are many nuances. Even when persistent support of Russia and a much less substantial support for the Republika Srpska (although Dodik and positions itself as the indispensable leader in solving the fate of the Serbs in the Balkans, and not only) Belgrade is unlikely to answer all the challenges of time.
Here I must mention the remarkable dexterity of Putin, which he manifests even in a situation when objective circumstances do not leave him room for maneuver and opportunities to bring the game to the end. Many reasonably believe that Vucic may ultimately get from Putin the go-ahead to join the European Union. Don’t forget, what mechanisms and rules apply within the EU. For example, the recent extension of anti-Russian sanctions would not be, if only one EU member state voted against it. The calculation is simple: in certain situations, or Serbia itself, for example, through Hungary or some other EU member States can play an important for Russia, because Serbia is the only country in Europe that took the Russian side. Of course, while all this is just speculation, but in an era when in Europe and around the world rapidly and brutally destroyed a inviolable principles, unions and political logic, anything is possible.
Russian, American and Israeli gas
All I, as an outside observer, presented in conjunction with passionate support, and promises Mike Pence Balkan leaders in Podgorica that is based on the notion that local political circles do not appreciate the conflict of two powerful forces in the Balkans sensibly, rationally and from the point of view of their own interests. Policies are not set primarily by the question: “what is our interest?” Whether Russian gas is the cheapest, best and affordable in our region? Not if we still go tomorrow dependent on expensive American gas (or “new” Israeli gas from the sea that Washington offers us as an alternative)?
American gas is extracted from shale, and then expensive way is delivered to the LNG terminal where it is returned to a gaseous state. Therefore, the possibilities to vary the costs are much less than in the case of Russian gas. The question is, how long in the competitive war that America is fighting for dominance in the energy industry of Europe, you can win solely by violent anti-Russian sanctions. Recent measures have deeply affected European interests, because firms of the Old world that produce equipment for the “Nord stream 2”, threatened with punishment.
The latter-day “Initiative of the three seas”, which involves EU countries bordering the Adriatic, Baltic or Black sea, too, is considered to be a purely American project. Competent political analysts are calling the initiative the basis for the “American cordon Sanitaire near Russia.” It is clear that the main purpose of the initiative behind common goals within the economic and any other cooperation between the participating countries, which, incidentally, is home to 22% of the EU population, and their total GDP amounts to 10% of EU GDP. The main aim is to associate has not yet built an LNG terminal on the Krk island LNG terminal in Poland and thus to create an alternative to gas axis Moscow — Berlin.
All this made a rift in the ranks of the members of the European Union, which is very beneficial for policy Mike Pence and his entourage. Trump with his desire not to engage in energy war with Russian is powerless. The main force that moved Congress to deny the President any leeway in this matter, is a well-known hawk and chief Russophobe John McCain. He manages to do all this, even though it diagnosed with a brain tumor in the last stage!
Talk about the “destabilization of the Western Balkans Russia” and attempts “to divide the Balkans and the West”, as a few days ago, said in Podgorica Mike Pence, has already forced many to perceive the Balkans as a battlefield in which local peoples were attacked, we need to help — in the name of democracy, of course. And after the “closing of the Adriatic” the US is going to take control of the Western Balkans as a whole…
For many, this is probably not a bad option, if we somehow different serve different forces. Although still remain two questions: in the interests of the “Western Balkans” for the sake of someone’s ambitions to buy expensive energy, which depends largely on the standard of living? And the second question: where are those politicians that are able to act in the interests of citizens who elected them? If we had such policies, relations between America and Russia would have been not so important. And we are their slaves. But still happy with that.