Offer on the foreign exchange market in Ukraine since the middle of January exceeds the demand, as a result of the hryvnia strengthened slightly. The trend of excess supply of foreign currency over demand will continue in March, which means that the value of the dollar will remain under pressure, said a senior analyst “Alpari” Vadim Iosub.
“The situation with the tranche one billion dollars, officials characterize with the words “all the fundamental issues are resolved, it remains to agree on the fine technical details and the money will come.” However, as we all remember on previous experience, the “coordination of small technical details” can last for months, and the issue of disbursement of a tranche should not be considered a foregone conclusion. If before the end of March the IMF money coming, the NBU can spend the day obsessing about the size of the reserves and to reduce, if not suspend the auctions for the purchase of foreign currency”, – says the expert.
In this case the dollar by the end of March will fall, and will be in the range of 26.0-26.5 UAH, said the analyst. Otherwise, if the IMF money and will not be, the NBU will be forced to replenish reserves, thereby preventing a drop in the dollar. In this scenario, the dollar will remain around current levels, that is about 27 USD.