How trump could improve us-Russian relations and to prevent an arms race

Some parts of the us-Russian architecture in the field of arms control and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons came close to turn into a combination of incorrect behavior of the Russian and American neglect. The question is whether the team trump the will and qualification in order to seal existing cracks up to the moment when the whole structure starts to crumble.

Such efforts are complicated by the fact that us-Russian relations are at their lowest level for the last time, and it happened as a result of Russian intervention in Ukraine, and as a result esclerose cycle of sanctions and counter diplomatic moves. A community of experts in the field of arms control encourages the administration to trump, it is too late to work together with Russia to solve significant problems of our cooperation.

However, some Republicans in Congress would like to challenge Russia in the field of the arms race, strengthen the measures of retaliation, and, in addition, they propose to withdraw from these agreements. For President trump, who consider the inmates of his predecessors agreements bad deals, their preservation will be challenging. However, he must carefully evaluate the benefits of these deals before you abandon them.

“Current tensions in relations with Moscow increases the risk that created by Bush, Reagan and Obama, the architecture of the control arms can be destroyed, said Daryl Kimball (Daryl Kimball), Executive Director of the Association for arms control” (Arms Control Association). We should not act to their own detriment just because we are unhappy with the behavior of Russia”.

One such agreement was on the Newspapers last week, when an unarmed aircraft of the Russian air force flew over the Pentagon, the CIA, as well as other sensitive from the point of view of national security, which has caused concern among many Americans. Even many in Washington don’t know anything about the Treaty on open skies, which since 2002 allows the U.S., Russia and 32 other countries to fly over each other’s territory. According to the state Department, the Minister of defense of Jim Mattis and the Senate, Russia has for many years violating the provisions of this agreement. Russia does not allow to carry out flights over key parts of its territory, as well as taking other steps that do not allow the United States and other countries to implement contained in the contract law.

Some lawmakers in Congress want the United States government imposed the same restrictions in respect of flights carried out by Russia. Some military leaders prefer to opt out of this agreement taking into account the possibility of collection by Russia of information on the basis of new technological opportunities.

“I would be glad to deprive the Russians of this right, — said Lieutenant-General of Marines Stuart Vincent (Vincent Stewart), the Director of the Intelligence Department of the Ministry of defence, speaking in March of this year before one of the committees of the house of representatives.

Members of the administration trump look to the open skies Treaty as an integral part to be evaluated of the interagency policy in the field of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. They should keep in mind that this contract provides transparency with respect to Russia, not only the United States but also to America’s allies.

Congress is also planning soon to make claims of Russia concerning the Agreement on the elimination of intermediate-range and shorter-range nuclear forces (INF). Russia has for many years violated the INF Treaty, she develops and places new cruise missile, whose range violates stipulated in the Treaty of limits, which poses a threat to Europe. As the Senate and house of representatives in its version of the appropriations Bill for national defense, provide tens of millions of dollars on the development of the United States private new cruise missiles that can also make America a violator of the Treaty. The Democrats in the Senate plan to defend this position when the new bill gets to the Senate next month.

In November last year, representatives of the state Department Barack Obama met with his Russian colleagues to discuss the INF Treaty. This negotiation proved fruitless, however, currently efforts are being made for the resumption of us-Russian consultations. On 18 July, Deputy Secretary of state Thomas Shannon (Shannon Thomas) met in Washington with his Russian counterpart Sergei Ryabkov, and they agreed to hold soon “the Negotiations on strategic stability issues” (Strategic Stability Talks). Thomas countryman (Thomas Cooper), a state Department official responsible for these issues until January of 2017, in a conversation with me said, If Congress would force the United States to break the agreement, or if trump will come out of it, our country will be at a disadvantage.

“As for the United States, the withdrawal from this Treaty will not strengthen our national security, he said. — It will be a victory over Moscow in the field of public relations, and we must do everything possible in order to choose a less radical solution.”

Shannon and Ryabkov promised to continue consultations about the New start-3 Treaty, which imposes restrictions on the number of placed missiles of distant radius of action with nuclear warheads. This agreement, which is due for renewal in 2021, is also in danger. Agreement on its extension at the present time could strengthen the long-term credibility, and also help to stabilize relations, said the countryman.

In their first telephone conversation after the inauguration of the trump Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to extend the Contract start-3, but trump, after a pause and consultation with his advisers, refused to do, calling it a bad deal.

Our current low point in relations was not caused by wrong behavior of Russia in the field of arms control; it was caused by Russia’s intervention in our democracy. However, the use of hard diplomacy in cooperation with our allies when discussing arms control would give Trump the opportunity to achieve what he, in his words, wants most to get back on the path of improved relations. In this way, he could also avoid a new arms race.