According to experts, “Bloomberg Economics” (Bloomberg Economics), based on data of the Ministry of Finance, last month the total production volume in Russia declined by a quarter because of the restrictions imposed in the conditions of a pandemic coronavirus, decreased economic activity, and revenues fell.
“Given the impact of the restrictive measures which will remain in place until the end of may, the decline in GDP in the second quarter is likely to be more significant than during the global financial crisis” — the analyst “Bloomberg Economics” Scott Johnson (Scott Johnson).
The first data indicating the extent of the damage caused to the economy, becoming a published government data on income and spending for April. Monthly GDP the Ministry of Finance does not publish, but it can be calculated from the budget aggregates, which the Ministry publishes in percent of economic activity.
Last week, President Vladimir Putin, trying to limit economic impacts, ordered to cancel the mode isolation. But the authorities of Moscow and other major cities plan to extend the lockdown and limitations for at least another few weeks.
According to experts, “Bloomberg Economics”, in the second quarter, GDP may decline by 16%. In this case it will be the worst quarterly figure since the beginning of 1990-ies.
According to the Association of European businesses, car sales in Russia fell by 72%, and the volume of sales last month was “black April” for the automotive industry. According to data released late last month by the analytical Agency “ay-aitch-es Markit” (IHS, Markit), the index of business activity of manufacturing industries in Russia fell to its lowest level in the history of statistics since 1997.
Because of this reduction fell the government’s expectations, which hoped for economic recovery this year. According to data published on Tuesday by Rosstat (Federal state statistics service), production in the first quarter increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last year. It’s below the median estimate of 1.8% obtained in a survey of 15 economists conducted by the Agency “Bloomberg”. The monthly data of Rosstat does not publish.