U.S. Ambassador to Poland Georgette of Mosbacher said that Poland could host on its territory nuclear weapons of the United States. And although the poles do not make official statements on this account, it is easy to assume that this scenario is very likely.
Sooner or later it would happen, and Poland will agree to this with great pleasure. Warsaw has allocated $ 2.5 billion for the construction of a US military base on its territory. Military base — not even NATO, and the United States! Plus today Poland has more than 30 thousand troops of the countries-members of NATO, including the us. And, besides, on the territory of Poland has placed missile defense system.
And Russia can not influence the course of these events. Not in her power to prevent the development of events in such a scenario. If a decision in principle on the deployment of us nuclear weapons in Poland will be made, then Russia will simply put before the fact.
If you assess the idea to deploy US nuclear weapons in Poland globally, on a strategic scale, it is possible to conclude that the United States create a barrier, the most Eastern NATO. It is entirely in the fabric of conversations about creating a Baltic-black sea Union.
If these intentions are realized, it will be used by the States in two aspects.
First — the United States offered Western Europe a security system in which the American presence in the countries of Western Europe would be minimal. And the Alliance’s presence and protection from a military threat from Russia will be concentrated in Eastern Europe: in the Baltic States, Poland, Ukraine and possibly Romania and Bulgaria.
Second — agreeing with the above listed countries and creating the Baltic-black sea Union, the United States will sit in customs and will collect fees for the movement of goods from Europe to Asia and from Asia to Europe. The us will fully control the process. See for example: “Nord stream — 2” buried “Turkish stream” — too, and now Poland has refused to transit Russian gas through the pipe that goes from Yamal to Europe via Belarus. It turns out, there is only Ukrainian pipe. And who controls Ukraine’s GTS? The Supervisory Board, in which the broad front represented the United States!
So over time, in Poland really will host US nuclear weapons. And it will be a credit to Russia. In fact, Moscow’s own hands have brought to life your worst dream: NATO will stand on the border of Russia.
However, all this does not affect either the behaviour or politics of Russia. On the contrary, it will behave more aggressively and nervously. In saying it will not be exact to restrain myself. Moscow is hysteria, screaming and waving his arms, screaming about what a nuclear weapon in Poland is unacceptable.
But the fact is that Russia today is nothing to answer, nothing to oppose. For example, the famous “Topol-M”, which Putin ten years scared the whole world — everyone already knows their tactical and technical characteristics and missile defense system able to intercept it. Or, for example, the new hypersonic weapons, “Dagger”, which Russia is trying to scare — if it exists, the fact is that in rare instances, i.e. in the form of prototypes. And the rest is just cartoons that showed Putin to the Federal Assembly. Know it all intelligence work, the gift of the bread to eat.
Besides, most of the countries of Western Europe included in its military doctrine of Russia as the main source, or terrorist or military threat. For example, in Germany in the military doctrine States that Russia is the main source of terrorist threat.
In addition, when all together discuss the coronavirus, and the military theme has gone by the wayside, few paid attention to the fact that the United States last week ended large-scale exercises in the Baltic sea, mined and demining of marine areas. This means that the States work out the option and blocking the Russian fleet in the Baltic, Ladoga, and unlock, if Russia would undermine the aisles. In fact, now Russia from the Baltic sea there is no escape — everything is already controlled by NATO.
That will mean for Ukraine of the stationing of nuclear weapons of the USA in Poland? It will depend on her.
If Ukraine will continue to bury our heads in the sand, doing nothing, the development of the event will not go in her favor. Moreover, this will further exacerbate the situation, because Russia will try to get as close to Poland. Accordingly, the battle over Ukraine flares up with new force. That is, if Ukraine will adhere to the same political position, and today, that is continue to “silence of the lambs”, its political absorption will unfold with a Bang. Then Russia will have even more to terrorize. It may be expressed in the increase of attacks in the front to put Ukraine more faster and losses to persuade the President Zelensky agree that what is happening in the Donbass — the civil conflict, and we need to sit down at the negotiating table with representatives of the “LDNR”.
If Ukraine will give a clear political assessment of what is happening in Eastern Ukraine and call the second party of the conflict — not the mythical rebels, and Russia, then we have a chance to join the Baltic-black sea Union, and to rely on its military-technical assistance.
Oleg Zhdanov, the military expert, retired Colonel