Eastern Europe hastened to write to the regions that are most affected by the upcoming presidency of Donald trump. In this series, Mexico will find a wall and output of production, China trade wars, and the Eastern Europe will be thrown at the mercy of Russia because trump is willing to negotiate it with Putin and do not want to spend the extra money on NATO. By this logic, Eastern European leaders have been struggling to root for Hillary Clinton as the heiress of course Obama, because he, on the contrary, strengthened NATO and spared no money to defend Western values, even in such remote corners, such as Eastern Europe.
But in fact, to find Eastern European leaders who really would support during the campaign, Hillary Clinton, is not so simple — this was, except that in Albania and the Baltic States, although these were cautious. But supporters of the trump before the election expressed himself quite openly, and they lead much larger and more influential countries in the region.
The fact that, from the point of view of most Eastern Europeans, trump to leave them can not, because the Americans and so they have largely abandoned — even under Obama. Under Bush the younger, Eastern Europe was friends with Washington directly through the head of the Brussels and both prepared to fight in Iraq, to build a missile defense and expanding NATO to the East. But with the advent of Obama the special relationship is over: the U.S. has redefined the concept of missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic have forgotten about NATO expansion, decreased visits to Vice President Biden and was generally farmed out to European Affairs to Brussels.
The greater part of his reign, to the Ukrainian crisis, the Obama administration paid little attention to Eastern Europe. And over the years many in the region had to learn to live with yourself. They began to build their own policies towards Moscow, especially in relation to Brussels, not counting on Washington’s support.
Their foreign policy interests are now much harder than just to obtain protection from Russia. And the President trump, even if he is three times the Pro-Russian, many Eastern European countries can be much easier than the anti-Hillary Clinton. Because other, no less important than Russia, questions (for example, migration or global warming) position of trump is much closer to Eastern Europe. Even in purely psychological terms for leaders like Kaczynski, Orban, fico, Vucic President of trump is much clearer than Obama or Hillary. Not to mention the fact that with Trump in the White house will now live the Slav from Eastern Europe.
The way to Polish the heart
Take, for example, the largest country in the region — Poland. Warsaw was the chief advocate of strengthening the Eastern flank of NATO and now needs the most to worry about skeptical of trump’s statements on the protection of European allies and its kind of like Pro-Kremlin sympathies. But the Polish leadership, such concern does not manifest — rather it looks very petranovskaya.
Kaczynski hopes that trump will speak to the Kremlin’s “position of strength” — read “not a toothless yapping about values as Obama.” A Prime Szydlo generally recorded trump worthy successors of her own business. According to her, the Polish party “law and justice” a year ago, made antenatalnuu and anti-liberal revolution for the interests of ordinary people. Now came the turn of America. Further, Germany and France.
We can say that trump is so fond of them after the victory, but in fact the understanding between him and conservative poles were established long before the election. During the campaign, trump unlike Hillary actively divided white voters by ethnicity. The poles, which in the U.S. is about ten million, was one of the main goals of its agitation. He met with the Polish community, and his performances, specially sharpened for the Polish audience, was in Poland itself no less famous than his General statements on the debate.
Trump is very definitely said exactly what I wanted to hear conservative American poles. He didn’t just promised to cancel for Polish citizens visa (important and very sensitive issue for the Diaspora), but also said that Poland is just that rare ally of the United States, which is laid out in full, but Washington is underestimating the poles, giving much more attention to different riders. In combination with other slogans trump such a position like a poor and white Polish voters more than Hillary Clinton, whose husband said that the United States gave the poles a democracy, and now they refuse it, supporting Kaczynski and “law and justice”.
After all, who in the autumn of last year most actively voted for Kaczynski and his party? Conservative American poles. In the US, Kaczynski scored almost 75% in two times more than in Poland itself. And now they are told that they are ungrateful destroyers of democracy. Of course, most American poles voted for trump. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania for several decades, voted for Democrats, and this time there won trump. And all the States with a large share of ethnic poles in the population.
The leadership of Poland also could not experience to Trump a certain sympathy, because it was rot for the same and the same liberal media that year being bullied themselves. The poles are in principle not used to the American press, they abused, and very worried about it. And then there was the article that in case of victory trump in the United States will be like in Poland. Of course, in Poland these texts are read much more carefully than in the States, and made one conclusion: what we have is a horror? Means trump good.
Finally, the main advantage of the tramp to Warsaw is that he is not going to go to them with homilies about democracy. Relations with Russia is Poland’s problem is a familiar and current life, she is not particularly affected. But relations with Brussels is another matter. For the past year, Washington and Brussels together put pressure on Poland on issues of separation of powers and other freedoms. And this problem for the Polish government is much more real than hypothetical Russian tanks, coming from the Kaliningrad region.
When trump is pressure from Washington to Warsaw should disappear, and sometimes even turn into a support — for example, on migration policy. As for NATO, Poland in contrast to many properly allocated to the defence required 2% of GDP, so she had nothing to fear. On the contrary, only to wait for change for the better.
The joy of defaulters
Even more reason to love trump from the Hungarian government. The Russian threat in Hungary I’m afraid much less than in Poland, in this area the Hungarians, all is well. But Western criticism of problems with democracy, they receive more than the poles. It is not surprising that Prime Minister Orban became the first European leader, who half a year before the election and publicly supported the candidacy of trump.
The Orban was disgusting relationship with the Obama administration. For six years parallel stay in power, the two leaders never met. Washington and personally Hillary Clinton as Secretary of state constantly criticized the Hungarian government for restricting freedoms. The US even announced several Hungarian officials banned, accusing them of corruption. In response, the Budapest accused the Americans of meddling in internal Affairs.
Hungary in contrast to Poland it is time for those countries that chronically do not comply with their financial obligations to NATO, but Orban is not particularly worried — he has his own ways to negotiate with Moscow. But that victory trump will inevitably weaken Western pressure on Hungary, is very important to him. In the first, congratulatory phone conversation the two leaders have already complained to each other how horribly liberal media.
The success of trump gave a new impetus and the international ambitions of Orban. Turns out he’s not only rights on the issue of migration, but overall was a pioneer, back in 2010 put his country on the way whose correctness is leading powers of the world realize only now. Hungarian Prime Minister for many years predicts the end of the era of “liberal-Democrats” — and there you are, confirmation brighter longer.
Orban was the first European leader to openly support the candidacy of trump before the election. But not the only one. In September, the same did Czech President Milos Zeman. Also said that if he were American, would vote for trump.
Motivation is just about that: the correct position on migration, the fight against Islamic terrorism, less interference in the Affairs of other countries. A victory for trump, according to Zeman, is a victory of real democracy in spite of the collusion of the elites and the major media.
Zeman does not hide that he was offended by the Obama administration. Because Obama appointed Ambassador to the Czech Republic, Shapiro criticized Zeman, when he in may 2015, went to Moscow for the parade in honor of the 70th anniversary of the Victory. The Czech President was very angry with these uninvited teachings and since then does not accept American Ambassador. Now Zeman hopes that Shapiro will withdraw and generally will be smaller to teach him life, so you will normally cooperate.
The Czech government has in foreign policy a lot more power than the President, and there was not welcome such directness Zeman, especially before the election. Prime Minister Sobotka said evasively, that probably would have supported Hillary. But Sobotka to the end of the mandate only a few months and the chance of re-election is almost there. At the head of the Czech government it almost certainly will replace the current Deputy Prime Minister and the leader of the most popular right now party ANO Andrew Babish.
But Babish before the us presidential elections said that his ideal candidate would be Bloomberg, but in many respects he coincides with the trump. For example, for the same migration and disregard for political correctness. And on the biography of the two policies is also very close. Babish businessman, one of the richest people in the Czech Republic, who came into politics just a few years ago and at the first election led his party to second place, received the post of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance. And could soon become Prime Minister, his party is far ahead in the polls.
The leadership of Slovakia enthusiastic about trump more than the Czechs. Slovak Prime Minister fico also before the election stated that he would vote for trump. Because Slovakia and the largest transit country for Russian gas to Europe, is particularly interested in reducing tensions in relations between Russia and the West and the lifting of sanctions.
Slovakia, Czech Republic, Hungary — all this is one of the most inveterate defaulters NATO. For many years their defense spending was not only below which the NATO 2% of GDP, and even 1%. But their leaders are not particularly worried about the hypothetical loss of American security guarantees. They are much more interested in possible support trump in immigration policy, easing Western pressure on internal issues and normalization of relations with Russia.
T-shirts and monuments
In the Balkans during the campaign managed to arise a cult of trump. The ancient record of the 1990-ies, where trump slightly criticizes Clinton for the bombing of Yugoslavia in 1999 was inflated to create fake news that trump apologized to the Serbs for the American bombing. Fake then exposed, but still as an ardent opponent of the Clinton trump has become an absolute favorite in Serbia and many Serbian communities in Bosnia and Montenegro.
Some Serbian politicians like Seselj, who wore a t-shirt with trump, expectations ballooned to the point that trump after winning withdraw U.S. recognition of Kosovo. But it is the marginalized, and the leadership of Serbia, Bulgaria, Macedonia, the Bosnian Serb Republic is more realistic to hope that victory trump will reduce the tension in relations with Russia and they will not have to make such a strict and unambiguous choice between the two parties.
However, such rapid support of Serbs turned out for trump at least the active hostility on the part of Kosovo, Albania, Bosnian Muslims. It’s not only anti-Islamic statements of trump, but in the role in the Balkan crisis played bill Clinton in the 1990s. In Pristina, he established a monument — of course, the Albanians in Kosovo, and in Albania struggled rooting for Hillary.
Supported Clinton in the Baltics, where the Russian threat has traditionally overshadows all other questions of foreign policy. The slightest hint of the possibility of losing the U.S. security guarantee makes the Baltic leaders very nervous, even though these trump should not be claims. All three States are always properly allocated to defense at least 2% of GDP, with the stock fulfilling the standards of NATO.
To Overtake The West
If you subtract Romania, where his own parliamentary campaign was too violent to discuss more American and, it turns out that so horrified the Eastern Europe, the victory trump actually horrified only a few small States on the periphery of the region — the Baltic States, Albania and Kosovo. And the majority of Eastern European countries, from Poland to Serbia, was very pleased with this outcome. Because the Russian threat to most leaders of the Eastern European stuff familiar and too theoretical. They, of course, still fear Russian tanks, but not willing to believe that NATO will suddenly and dissolve. But the conflict with Brussels is for them a daily and unpleasant reality.
Eastern European countries are tired of his role of perpetual catch-up students old powers of the West. Tired of the things that have very little impact on the adoption of the European decisions of their constant lecture on domestic issues that, in the formulation of EU policy takes into account especially the interests of its old and not very specific a new that in any conflict, Washington under Obama has always taken the direction of Brussels, joining the pressure on the countries of Eastern Europe.
Victory trump gives them hope to change the balance of power. To mitigate external pressure and get support for some very important issues for them. Eastern Europe is almost unanimously opposes the current immigration policy of the EU, but in Brussels the position of so many of the state virtually ignore. Maybe now, with the trump of the Eastern European leaders will be able to convey to the leadership of the European Union their claims on this issue. As, however, and for many others, like the rejection of coal power or economic cooperation with Russia — both for Eastern Europe much more than Western.
Although no lesser role here, as a victory for trump changed the self-perception of many leaders in Eastern Europe. Who were they to President trump? So, marginal. Losers who are hopelessly behind the best part of mankind to a brighter future of the left-liberal. And who are they now? Now they are the founders of trends, which then conquered the West. They knowingly lied, they did everything right, and now the West understands as they are in Eastern Europe were right. Join them. But if you have a little emboldened, it is possible to believe that they its success in the national-conservative direction has demonstrated to the West that their Eastern European the right path.
Cherished, centuries-old dream of Eastern Europe to overtake the West. Thanks to the Tramp come true. Of course, they are welcome.