The DPRK behaves so quietly that I don’t even hear breathing. There were no missile launches or nuclear tests or provocations. Apparently, it’s because the White house was occupied by “a group of blond.” It seems that the DPRK is closely watching President trump. Perhaps, Pyongyang surprised at his lightning-quick and aggressive action at an early stage.
Apparently, the leadership of the DPRK drew attention to the fact that it was face to face with a President who is capable in just one week to turn long-term US policy with respect to environmental changes, the UN, and relations with individual States. The DPRK does not understand, what steps will the President trump, however, is aware that trump is responding in a situation where its interests are infringed.
Trump has repeatedly said that North Korea develops ballistic missiles that will be aimed at the American continent. Therefore, his reaction to the preparation of the DPRK’s missile tests should be sharp. Perhaps he may even destroy all the missiles, fueled and on the pad.
I think this uncertainty and instability have become the defining factors that influenced the DPRK to refrain from provocations.
The DPRK has puzzled not only direct relations with the United States. President trump will likely have an impact on U.S. relations with countries such as Syria and Japan, which will also affect relations with the DPRK. Consider possible changes in US relations — China, US — Russia and US — Japan, which are of the greatest importance for the DPRK.
In the short term, the deterioration of relations between the US and China could play into the hands of the DPRK. The fact that perhaps China will try to strengthen relations with its ally, North Korea. However, actually, China does not want conflict with the United States.
Pyongyang is worried about the torn China, where this fall will take place the 19th Congress of the party, the negotiation process with the United States. Washington may require from Beijing to weaken the relations with the DPRK in exchange for small concessions on the issue of Taiwan and the South China sea. I am sure that the DPRK is extremely concerned about this.
Even if it will not come to military conflict between the US and China, the constant instability in the relations between the two countries, as well as a possible crisis in the Chinese economy will seriously affect the situation in the DPRK. China is the largest importer of coal and iron ore from North Korea.
Raw material prices continue to fall. If the pace of development of the Chinese economy will slow down under the influence trump, this will lead to a decline in demand for raw materials and, consequently, to the fall of prices. This will further aggravate the situation of the DPRK.
The reconciliation between the U.S. and Russia could seriously squeeze the diplomatic space of the DPRK. For a long time, the DPRK sought to pit Russia and China. If Russia will converge with the United States, Pyongyang will not be able to use this tactic. For North Korea there will be only one way: hide under the wing of China.
Perhaps the DPRK will make greater efforts than required by China’s leadership. This means that in order to cover the DPRK, UN Security Council, China will have to act alone.
Since China is unlikely glad this run, it will start the passive refers to the fact to help North Korea. In the course of telephone conversations January 28, presidents Putin and trump discussed the cooperation issues on the Korean Peninsula. North Korea became even more of a reason for concern. Russia has to give priority to relations with the DPRK, and Europe and Central Asia. Taking the strategic negotiations with Russia, the United States may require the Kremlin to stop supporting North Korea.