On the visit of President Poroshenko to the USA already written a lot.
Sincerely not wanting to join as echinachem skeptics and “tradepalm” and the joyful chorus of enthusiastic commentators, with more than 20 years of experience in lighting a variety of visits a variety of figures, ZN.UA tried to understand what were the objectives of this visit, what is its value and real results. Unfortunately, questions was more than answers.
Why Poroshenko is so persistently sought in Washington’s Trump? The members of the official delegation and our diplomatic sources who publicly who “off the record” — testified: Poroshenko was extremely important to meet with trump before he’ll see Putin (possibly on the sidelines of the “big twenty”), to: a) convey to the American leader, his vision of the current situation in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict; b) to obtain assurances that no deal on Ukraine behind Ukraine not; C) to promise to maintain the sanctions until until Russia stops its aggression against our country and will not restore its territorial integrity.
At the same time, sources ZN.UA the President claimed that Poroshenko wanted to meet with trump, first, just to outdo Putin, the first “marking the territory” of the White house. Secondly, to know how he intends to behave in Washington to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, why it can push (or force) of the Ukrainian leader, and what the consequences might be for Poroshenko personally in case of disobedience. And finally, thirdly, to image bonuses within the country to rise in the eyes of opponents — both in the ruling coalition and outside it, having a special relationship trump and thus demonstrating his own prospect that the President Americanization of the country, going for a second term, is extremely important.
However, overconfidence does not always lead to the desired result, and often interferes with his achievement.
If, according to our sources, for the President was an important form of meeting with trump to “sit and talk”, not “be and take a picture”, why then he boarded a plane for Washington, still not exactly knowing its format? As the message on a rendezvous with Poroshenko in the schedule of the American leader on the White house website came later and was designated as drop-in, i.e. a short meeting (“visit”), and only on the eve of the meeting at the cost of enormous diplomatic efforts in a format that is able to expand up to 30 minutes bustling crowded communication.
Disappointment after the resounding words Poroshenko about the “fantastic program” and untrue allegations that “never had such a powerful visit”, cause not only personal recollections of the protracted but pleasant anticipation in the conference room of the White house joint press conference of presidents Yushchenko and Bush zagovorukha during a meeting with eye to eye and released to reporters with a very significant delay — elated, and almost in an embrace.
It is not Ukrainian “zradniki” or Russian “bots”, and most Western media covering the meeting Poroshenko and trump, first noted unusual for an American President modesty Ukrainian colleagues, and even called it humiliating, comparing with the recent much more pretentious visits to the White house the leaders of Romania and Panama. It is true that American journalists have linked this unusual technique trump of the Ukrainian President with the alleged concerns of the American leader to irritate Putin, while the new administration does not leave hopes to establish a relationship with him. We add that P. Poroshenko, maybe I shouldn’t have too much to count on a warm welcome from nerovivo the White house after Kiev, not particularly hiding, not only supported the election of his rival, but also made public the documents incriminating the head of the electoral headquarters of the trump — Manafort. This is not quickly forgotten.
But God is with her. Although, of course, as many have noted, the lone vigorous joyful news briefing of the Ukrainian President on the background of the fence of the White house with got in the warning sign “do Not enter!” it is very trash some (which looked and what they think the Protocol and the press office, preparing this background the chief is a mystery.) Let’s deal in fact.
Did Poroshenko to seek a special arrangement to his trump, to establish personal contact — at least the same as with Merkel? Very doubtful. Because it was not a tete-a-tete, because there was no opportunity for confidential communication, since trump didn’t want to give Poroshenko the opportunity. After all, during conversations with eye to eye, as a rule, and tie personal contacts, established a special relationship. And after the negative campaign of the Ukrainian-American background is precisely such a meeting could give a chance to fix the remaining trump with a bad aftertaste. But the White house chose a different format and at a meeting in the oval office was also present and his adviser on security issues, McMaster, and Vice-President of the Pence, and Ukrainian foreign Minister Klimkin, and ambassadors roan and Jovanovic. And not anticipated by the program and, according to our information, the proposed spur of the moment trump the start-up of the press and the exchange of formal remarks only reduced the time of communication. Besides, flattery from the lips of Ukrainian President, “admiring” the leadership trump and his “very effective action,” celebrated “historicity” date — five months of his presidency the new head of the White house, jarred many not only in Ukraine, but Washington: well worthless President making such a fuss.
So, if Poroshenko really wanted to hit a meeting in the oval office, his opponents — both in Moscow and in Kiev, it is unlikely he did it. If previously, many only guessed that Poroshenko does not enjoy a special location of the trump, it has now become obvious.
Yes, he met with trump to Putin. Yes, agree, today is a good symbol. But will he not become tomorrow’s domestic political indulgence received by trump for his chance meeting with the owner of the Kremlin? Who will now be able to blame the fact that he prefers Russia to Ukraine? And that in addition to symbolic gave a date “up to Putin”? Maybe if “Putin” did not work, the need to justify to critically minded American society and politics for “defaming contact” with the aggressor would have made trump more attentive to Ukrainian wishes and would give Kiev more space to maneuver and time to prepare, and the President of Ukraine — more time and respect from the leader of the free world?
Members of the Ukrainian delegation say, that a meeting of Poroshenko and trump was full (though the repeated emphasis on that word itself raises doubts), and that it was impossible to discuss all the planned issues — security and the economy. What exactly does this mean? President maps and other materials informed his American colleague about the situation in the Donbass, spoke about the Crimea. But is a month and a half ago, the Minister Klimkin did not do the same? Or perhaps there was quite a long and detailed meeting Poroshenko with the Vice President of the Penny in February in Munich? What did you learn American leadership during the visit Poroshenko in Washington? We, unfortunately, is unknown.
Did, in turn, Petro Poroshenko, as you can see, the Americans ways of resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict? Introduced it from the us strategy on Ukraine? Or informed about the forms and mechanisms of the American involvement in resolving this conflict? Something concrete the President in Washington heard in addition to assurances of support? It would be wrong, but I think not. Because the new us administration and personally trump, no more of these strategies, visions, forms and mechanisms. The state Department has not even appointed a person to replace Victoria Nuland, responsible for American involvement in resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Last week, however, in a short time it seemed that the Americans did come up with something new, something different. The Secretary of state suddenly Tillerson said that the US would support the attempt of Ukraine and Russia to end the conflict in the Donbass outside the framework of the Minsk agreements. But first, our sources, and then state Department spokesman announced: no Washington no concrete proposals. “I have not heard that the United States proposed a new plan,”- said the speaker of the state Department H. Neuert, saying that “the United States remains committed to the Minsk agreements”, but “not satisfied with the progress” in their implementation, and is “deeply concerned by escalation of violence in the Donbas.”
Another question without a clear answer: does Kiev something instead of Minsk, the futility of which all mercilessly criticize? According to the Washington statements by the President, no. What is the President’s proposal for “a more active involvement of the United States to the peace process in the Donbass,” referred to in the press service of the Ukrainian head on the results of his meeting with us Secretary of state Tillerson? How to understand Poroshenko, claiming that the Ukrainian side did not think that the change of the Minsk and Normandy formats of negotiations on the Donbass, but at the same time stating that the Ukrainian side for “more active involvement of our American partners to Channel format” and would welcome their “representation in the format of the Minsk process, including in the Trilateral contact group” that would bring “a new breath, reloaded”? If Americans will “attract” to the Channel format and will be present in the TAG, doesn’t that change the Minsk and Normandy formats? And, by the way, what is the position regarding this “attraction” and “representative offices” of the Americans in Normandy and in Minsk the other participants of these formats? I would like to get answers to these questions.
Further. Sanctions. Yes, it is definitely positive that the Americans not only retain but also strengthen sanctions against Russia. But this is not the result of Poroshenko’s visit to the United States. That Russia “fully responsible for the implementation of the Minsk agreements”, and the sanctions imposed on Russia “will remain until Moscow will not back up their actions, which was the reason for the imposition of sanctions,” the White house and the state Department said another month and a half ago during visits to Washington by the Russian and Ukrainian foreign Ministers Lavrov and Klimkin.
Yes, the Senate almost unanimously voted for a new package of anti-Russian sanctions. But agree the American and European media and experts, it is made, rather, to “bind the hands” of the Buddha, that they decided to “normalize relations” with Moscow in its decision on the lifting of sanctions. However, this bill now stalled in the lower house of Congress without the intervention of the White house, according to journalists, “new York times”, does not share enthusiasm of P. Poroshenko regarding the leadership style of D. trump.
Yes, at the same time as Ukrainian President crossed the threshold of the White house, the administration trump announced a new package of sanctions against Russia, involving 38 individuals and organizations involved in the annexation of Crimea and intervention in Donbass. But, according to all the same skeptical “new York times”, “given that few of these individuals and organizations have any known contacts outside of Russia or Ukrainian territories controlled by Russia, it is unclear whether sanctions have immediate effect.” Moreover, it is assumed in the paper, this step of the administration of trump, probably to do with her desire to bury the tougher Senate bill, saying that we are already doing something in this direction, and in the new law there is no need.
What else is in the “trophy bag” Poroshenko? “Firm support for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of our state”? So it’s vintage: this “trophy” for more than two decades. The promise of “no deals behind the back of Ukraine”? This trophy is earned in winter in Munich has already been moved re-from Washington to Kiev together with P. Klimkin last month. But we are again consigning it to the “trophies”?
For the first time, perhaps, can be attributed more profound, as evidenced by the sources, the discussion of the Crimea and clearly articulating the position of the Ukrainian side: the Crimea we do not sell. It is, preventively — “in case of unsolicited scripts.” However, as we were assured, to convert the Donbass in Crimea and no one offered.
Trying to figure out what the words mean in the press release up on the ways “the institutionalization of bilateral cooperation in the sphere of security”, found that a speech about a submitted by the end of the document in the form of a non-paper (unofficial notes) with the proposal of the concept of Ukrainian-American security agreement. This is, unfortunately, not an agreement similar to the allied treaties of the United States, such as Japan or Israel, which said, something messes speaker Parubiy, has also recently visited Washington. Of such document, and the status of the main ally outside NATO, Ukraine can only dream of. The intention of Kiev while a more modest and realistic. And although the details of the concept of this document for obvious reasons not disclosed, our interviewees explained that in idle the Budapest Memorandum and beyond the “security umbrella” of NATO, Ukraine needs a kind of “intermediate station” on the way to an Alliance, which increases its safety.
With regard to the provision of lethal defensive weapons, it is still only discussed “ways of giving” it to Ukraine. During the election campaign, Republicans criticized the Obama administration for indecision in this matter. Moreover, even many Democrats were ready to support the provision of lethal arms to Ukraine. After the election, these sentiments in Congress has only increased. But stop, as before, at the White house. Trump is in no hurry to give the go-ahead. Its positive decision if it was made during a meeting with Poroshenko — that it would not be used, and worthy of the President trophy. Alas. According to our information, the Ukrainians have received only assurances that if lethal weapons to Ukraine all the same will provide, it will not be instead of sanctions (such concerns — “give weapons sanctions against Russia removed the” — soar in the expert community).
The achievements of the presidential voyage across the ocean of his team classifies the parties expressed readiness to prepare several agreements, in particular in the sphere of military-technical cooperation and energy. But usually presidents drive to visit the other presidents (especially the us) not to announce the preparation of the documents and to sign them or to “sanctify” the signing with his presence. And, importantly, that such a possibility existed. According to ZN.UA two agreements in question, in particular, on defence procurement and on military-technical cooperation, thumb in Kiev for a year and a half years respectively. Before the visit, all startled, immediately blew the dust documents, but to bring the agreement before the mind did not. The same applies to the “energy” of the document. According to experts, during the visit Poroshenko, in principle, you could already contracts for the supply of coal from Pennsylvania to sign, not only to discuss with trump that possibility.
But if it would be in Kiev. Or if the President so insisted on a speedy rendezvous with the tramp, whose main task was “to catch up to Putin,” not well prepared to achieve real results. There is certainly nothing tragic for the country did not happen. And numerous meetings in Washington were absolutely useless do not call — have been quite positive talks with energy Minister Perry and Minister for trade Ross, and (especially) with the Pentagon Mattis, by the way, for the first time met with high representatives of Ukraine And the United States continues to support the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine believe that Russia is the aggressor, keep the sanctions, and promised help with the reforms.
But the situation is ambiguous. Yes, Ukraine has, in fact, have a lot of support in Washington — and in Congress, and several ministries and agencies. There developed documents, preparing draft decisions “for Ukraine” — the “body” of the body the American government works. Including, by the way, spetsorgany, dry material “shells” in the form of corruption cases by the Ukrainian authorities. But the problem is that the circulatory system that connects the “head” and “body” of the American ruling body, is not yet fully formed. And today it is not clear what decisions, in the end, will “head” powerfully to support Ukraine; to give a “volley” at its apex, at the same time covered with wreckage and the country; or in what proportions to combine carrot and stick? The answer to this question Petro Poroshenko in Washington not received.
In short, sorry for the enormous effort, time and nervous energy of our diplomats as the Embassy and the foreign Ministry, in a difficult geopolitical environment organized this visit. After meeting with the President of the United States do not occur monthly, and in the oval office was able to visit not all the heads of States of the world. And if Poroshenko ever again such an opportunity is the big question. Sorry for the missed chance. Because, what is the “added value” of the visit, we did not understand.