What do you think, who or what is a real problem for the Kremlin? Bulk? Corruption? The stupidity of the government? Renovation and truckers? All this trouble, I think, the Kremlin still has a chance to survive, albeit with a headache. The threat comes from where did not wait. Our eyes loosened the brace, the cementing of the Russian autocracy. This cementing force, and undermines a very interesting couple: Donald trump with XI Jinping, a kind of us-Chinese Duo. Trump does it, of course, not realizing what he’s doing. As for the Big C, he clearly cannot be blamed that he does not understand the consequences of their steps.
We are talking about statehood, which is the backbone of the Russian personalistic power: if you have any doubts about the statehood, then the whole ideological structure begins to crumble. For a quarter century after the Soviet collapse, the Kremlin was able to reproduce the status of a great power, for which the Russians were willing to sacrifice their freedom and well-being, having in a pocket only nuclear warheads and a reminder of the courage of the past years. But the irony is that Russia can maintain an international claim only through the correlation itself (through dialogue or confrontation, and often using both) USA, a leading global player. Russian political mentality fixated on americanocentrism; for this mentality the rest of the world, including Europe, is only a Supplement to the Russian-American bipolarity. The American narrative has become a crucial element of self-assertion of the Russian authorities and justification of the way of her reign.
USA regularly worked system support for a new Russian autocracy. Under the presidency of Barack Obama, who was trying not to irritate the Kremlin, in Moscow, even felt that it was time to demand that the United States took other people’s rules. When the White house came a trump, the Russian elite is dreaming about the tandem Russia-America, who will rule the world. Of course, to rule under the guidance of more experienced leader, and the Kremlin, there was no question who was to be the soloist in a pair of Putin-trump.
And then a collapse! Something unexpected happened: Russia has become not just a tool of the American struggle for power, but turned into anti-systemic force that threatens to provoke in US the new alignment of forces and change the balance of power. It does not matter real or contrived intervention of the Kremlin in the American political process irreversibly: “the Russian card” has become a fact of American reality. Of course, the Kremlin even in a nightmare could not prividetsya avalanche of events that turned any communication from the us administration with the Russian representatives in the promise of a new Watergate. And trump temper, narcissism and unbridled way — contributed to the transformation of the “Russian card” in their own gravedigger. You can imagine the Kremlin moaning: “Oh, Well, he would, themselves dug the grave, but he, the villain, rocking our boat!” However, what is there to wonder: if Moscow is so long and successfully exploited anti-Americanism in order to strengthen their own positions, then why the American elite does not learn from the experience and not try to play with kremlinology?
If you do not stop the shaft of the suspicion of Russian intervention and of attempts to discredit American democracy, then Russia will become if not a threat, unwanted partner for the entire Western world. And it will turn into a strategic problem for Moscow, forcing the West to create a mechanism for real (not imitation) containment and isolation of Russia.
“This is a political schizophrenia!” — outraged by President Putin. “How can you treat an elected President?!” — bewildered questioner Russian celebrationist. Eh, would be better if the Russian side do nothing! Every sound or sigh emanating from Moscow in support of trump, is seen as another confirmation of the fact that between them there is an agreement, and it is a new act of discrediting the American President.
Whatever the real or perceived motives for using “Russian card” in the United States, a situation which undermines the foundations of the Russian personalistic power. Now Moscow is very difficult to use America as the source of their own statehood. A confrontation with Washington — our own peril. We remember the end of the confrontation of the Soviet Union with the United States. Dialogue, much less cooperation with Washington is now unlikely to succeed. Every time trump will try to reach Moscow hand, even for justified reasons, it will strengthen suspicions about its dependence on Moscow. And this is a new step towards impeachment.
Moreover, any successor trump will be forced to operate in an atmosphere of suspicion about the intentions and capabilities of Moscow. Suspicion towards Russia and Russian is already turning into a virus that starts to penetrate into the political life of various countries. And for Russia, which became part of the global world and which not only actively use financial and technological resources of the West, but turned into a raw material appendage of the developed countries, this represents a blow to the model of existence.
The anti-Russian consolidation of the American elite revives the ideologization of foreign policy, which the West has long lost the habit. Exit West from the era of postmodernism with its moral and normative relativism narrows the field to maneuver to the Kremlin, which is still successfully used political ambivalence of liberal democracies and their willingness to bargain. A return to the regulatory standards will mean the closing of the Western world for Russia and its elite. A great power cannot exist in isolation, it can maintain its status only through participation in the Concert of great powers.
Here’s a reason to abandon the usual of americanocentrism, trying to reassure some experts. Okay, but then what the Kremlin to feed your status without America? We will build partnership with China, I suggest the optimists. Do they believe that Beijing will offer Moscow something more than the role of Junior partner? Is clear that the Russian elite, which is accustomed to whining about their humiliation by the US, finally there is real cause for lamentations. Chinese leader XI Jinping has already announced China’s desire to do what is still in Beijing were afraid to speak aloud about readiness for global leadership. At a recent forum of “One belt and one road”, XI Jinping, Chinese throwing caution actually offered his own version of globalization under the leadership, of course, China. Can be seen by looking at the paralysis of the West and how Washington is keen on the destruction of the people in Beijing decided it was time, openly, to come to the forefront. Vladimir Putin in Beijing on the above forum was standing next to si, but clearly no fun. And it is understandable why the Chinese global project — another blow to the Russian statehood and the Kremlin’s ambitions. Only hope that the concept of “One belt and one road” will fail and that the United States will gather strength and shorten Chinese ambitions.
In short, has managed with this tramp! But even more — with XI Jinping. Of course, you can develop in Sochi frantic diplomatic activity and to engage in dialogue with all who are willing to come to Sochi: from Erdogan to the Italian Prime Minister, whose name was not necessarily to memorize, because the government in Rome are constantly changing. But everyone understands that this is the game in the second League. Today in the Kremlin must, it is painful to reflect, how and what, how and with whom to cheat cloud statehood? And no it does not — the last brace left.