I do not think that the crisis on the Korean Peninsula turn into something serious. And here’s why. To knock over such a regime in North Korea, no color revolution will not help. It’s hardly the world’s only completely totalitarian regime. There is something similar, except that in Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. No internal revolutions.
So, it is only about the war, and major war, perhaps even using tactical nuclear weapons. And trump is never going. This is just big PR Bang that will end in nothing. Except that will strengthen sanctions against Pyongyang. China, incidentally, is also not really actively protects North Korea.
What is happening today is a firecracker for self-promotion. After his first relative success in Syria, trump wants to consolidate the new PR-action in North Korea, but hostilities with the United States, I think it will not come. Moreover, the reason for this, scared to death of the Korean dictator will not let him. It is obvious that North Korea was afraid, because she never distinguished by great courage, making only a demonstration of the shooting, shouting: “Hold me five, I’m going to be killed!”. Part of the PR-hysteria — Korean dictator well done on the part of the real action — he’s not doing anything at all.
The passivity of Russia in this situation can be explained by several factors. First, Russia, taught by their “great successes” in Ukraine and Syria, and certainly he feels no desire to climb into third mess. As for PR-passivity, it is also understandable for two reasons. First and foremost, Russia does not want to continue to spoil relations with America and is very afraid to translate these relationships into a stage of irreversible deadlock. And even more so for Korea.
The second reason is more serious, it is psychological. I have the impression that Russian politics, which is all called “Putin”, because no other center of political decisions, and especially in the foreign policy of the country certainly is not, so Putin is in quite a serious loss. Personal, internal confusion. This is manifested not only in relation to Korea, it manifests itself in everything.
Confusion and passivity of Putin can be related to the fact that on all fronts — solid impasse. Stalled in Syria — there’s nothing there. Option to butt heads with all the lights of al-Assad, in company with Iran, apparently, Russia is not attractive. Failed hopes for trump, but the final gap is also there, so everyone is freaking out, too. In the European direction, where they were pretty stupid and senseless hopes on a split of the European Union, it is obvious, too, nothing will happen. France will win the macron and about any collapse of the EU and of speech can not be. On the Ukrainian direction — also a dead end and total silence.
Amid such a situation, Putin is in some internal confusion, the most important thing — not the external PR, Korea, Ukraine, Syria and the United States. Most importantly, the fundamental question facing Putin: “Go for the presidency or not to go for the presidency in 2018”. That’s the only question that really looms in front of Putin.
There are pros and there are cons. And it is absolutely unclear what to do if still no go. Just sit retired, or what? I have the impression that he has some psychological hang-up. Well, in this situation, the crack about North Korea — this is silly.
If to speak about the situation in the world from the point of view of the PR activity and political initiatives of States it is obvious that the motor is the United States. China, contrary to many predictions, including Russian, in no hurry to quarrel with the United States. And America is absolutely not to quarrel with China. Russia’s hopes that trump will pick a fight with China and to seek support from Moscow as a counterweight, also not justified. For all his unpredictable and chaotic behavior, trump got along pretty good with China and Russia in this situation the “third-extra”.
So I don’t see any of the notorious triangle USA-China-Russia. The United States are very active. Although this does not help Trump in domestic policy: the rating of the American President is very low, the political elite that it could not become better to treat it inside of Congress, he’s also not a brilliant situation, he failed an important law on the abolition of health insurance. Let’s see how things will go with the second major piece of legislation about tax cuts.
But in foreign policy, trump certainly seized the initiative. He is aggressive, assertive, to some extent, repeating the figure of Putin. Aggressive and cheeky behavior in a vacuum. This unfortunate attack on Syria means nothing.
But the difference between America and Russia is obvious. Russia can lighten up and waving his arms, but she stands in the swamp — it has no economy, she is very vulnerable in all respects. The United States is the first economy in the world. Although in terms of GDP they are lower than China, but in all other respects, is the engine of global technologies, the intellectual center of the world. The second difference between these two countries: as if trump can act like that, hell he did not move. Putin easily moved. I mean Crimea, I mean Donbass. Such actions trump does.
Therefore, in this situation Russia was suddenly taken out of the brackets. Suddenly it appeared that all the Russian formidable activity and impudence, for which the whole world sort of looked horrified, useless. The bubble, if not burst, then flies through the air and suddenly was only a soap bubble, not the great and terrible, crushing everything around him.
Modern politics is 99% just PR. Because really nobody does, but PR. Trump on the part of the PR surpassed Putin.