Everywhere the hour of rearmament. USA Donald trump present an expanded military budget and urge the allies to increase defence spending, while Vladimir Putin’s Russia is alarming, and China, XI Jinping, is redoubling its efforts to modernize the army.
Although we do not know where to lead the current changes in the international arena, in one of no longer to obtain a peace dividend and, to the extent possible, preparing for defense in the setting of acute instability.
Donald trump has clearly demonstrated its intentions by announcing a 10% increase in the budget of the Pentagon, which is (more than 600 billion dollars) already accounts for 40% of global military spending. This, of course, is up to 25% expansion, which took Ronald Reagan in 1981, however, the end of the cold war, America still did not give such impetus to the arms race.
Motives trump reason in common with Reagan: in the absence of a real military strategy the goal is to contribute to the recovery of the national economy, and to impress potential enemies. The emergence in Syria of a battalion of Marines with a waving stars and stripes to fight against “Islamic state” (banned in Russia as a terrorist organization — approx.ed.) means that the course the new administration will not necessarily be so isolationist as promised by the slogan “America first”. If you consider that “strategist” of the White house Stephen Bannon (Stephen Bannon) was convinced of the inevitability of war with China, the prospects do not look too encouraging. China this year announced only a modest increase in defense spending, but they increased tenfold over 15 years, and Beijing is prepared to challenge Washington on the sea.
In Asia tensions are growing not only because of the territorial claims of Beijing in the South China sea, but also because of the unpredictable behavior of Pyongyang. Recent tests of North Korean missiles led to the deployment of us missile defense to protect Seoul, which is put in the uncomfortable position of Beijing. In this extremely volatile region, there is no international system that could reduce the risk of confrontation. In addition, according to the Stockholm Institute for peace studies (SIPRI), here there is a strong increase in weapons imports.
Upgrading is a phenomenon of global proportions. It applies primarily to the Middle East and Africa, Algeria is the largest importer with 46% share, according to SIPRI. In Central Africa the major customers are Nigeria, Sudan and Ethiopia, countries that have to deal with open conflicts.
The global arms race goes to the background forcing to fear the worst verbal excesses of trump, as well as the crisis generated by Russia and the United States at the end of the cold war system of arms control. Today we can see again on all sides modernize military arsenals and their integration into military strategy.
Europe has long enjoyed the dividends of peace, but is now forced to follow this trend. NATO allies urged to comply with the requirement to allocate 2% of GDP on defense. It is worth noting that the U.S. share of the costs of NATO has reached 75%, and that trump only more insistently repeated the voice in the past accusations.
The nature of the disputes changing. As you can see in the French election campaign, no one or almost no one disputes the need for large spending on security. On the background of the crisis of the European Union the idea of European defence again comes to the fore, but all this does not lead to the emergence of specific solutions.
In France, the gun industry knows no crisis. Last year exports reached a record level of almost 20 billion euros, according to the report by the control arms. India was sold to 36 Rafale fighter jets to Kuwait — 300 pieces of equipment and 30 helicopters, Egypt is a telecommunications satellite, the Singapore — 16 helicopters and Australia — 12 subs. The weapon is one of the last sectors of French industry, which has enjoyed similar success in foreign markets. Given the scale of unemployment is easy to understand that pacifists don’t get much response, and that the major presidential candidates support increasing the defense budget.
At the moment when the United States talk about their unwillingness to continue to play the traditional role of world policeman and the intention to focus on national interests, regional powers are tempted to indulge in an arms race, to yourself to guarantee their safety. In the arms there’s a huge market taking into account all possible threats may sooner or later put us on the brink of war.