As you know, Baku state that supposedly freed Jajuk Marjanli village of Jabrail district, and are actively trying to repopulate it. In fact, Azerbaijan is not liberated this village, but only had the opportunity to populate it with taken famous peaks Lele Tepe. Leaving aside this fact, we note that Baku accompanies the whole process a great noise, which aims to impress both our own society and the international community.
The 15th of February the Azerbaijani authorities even organized a visit of representatives of foreign diplomatic missions in the village to show how it was populated by refugees, built up and strengthened. Jajuk Marjanli visited almost all accredited in Azerbaijan after the emergency, and the Russian Ambassador Vladimir Dorokhin even noticed that in addition to professional, this question also has an emotional side and that Moscow is continuing efforts to resolve the conflict. The only exception was the US Ambassador to Azerbaijan, who missed organized by the Azerbaijani authorities, the event (which caused some anti-American sentiment in Baku). Abstained from visiting Jajuk Marjanli also the representative of the International Committee of the red cross in Baku.
The Signal N1
In fact, however, Baku has its organized “settlement” is trying to show the international community that, in the absence of the negotiation process, it is possible to achieve success, even the local settlement and solving the refugee issue.
The performance, organized by the Azerbaijani authorities, nothing like a video to demonstrate that they can achieve military success and settle “occupied and destroyed the bloodthirsty Armenians settlements” Azerbaijani refugees.
This message Baku raised concerns that the Azerbaijani leadership is preparing the ground for another military adventure, and when large-scale military operations will expect a loyal response from the international community since Azerbaijan “releases and inhabits”.
The Signal N2
On the other hand, the operation “settling” of the Azerbaijani authorities aimed at the domestic audience. After 1994, in the course of the settlement process, the Azerbaijani authorities were forced to come to terms with the psychology of the affected side, and the society, sharing the same thinking, always remain insecure in their own abilities, in spite of the active propaganda of the authorities. Now, when during the April war the Azerbaijani army was able to take control of Lele Tepe, the Azerbaijani authorities had the opportunity to present it as a great victory. This is the most important factor in the current phase of the conflict. Get at least a highly conditional and controversial victory, the public of Azerbaijan to change its attitude to the armed forces and, thanks to the propaganda of Baku is confident that the conflict can obtain a military solution.
The Signal N3
This step of Azerbaijan, of course, also directed the public of Armenia. So Baku is trying to bring some psychological pressure, because it turns out that after the April collision of the Artsakh(Karabakh) side was forced to evacuate Talisha, and the Azerbaijani side, in fact, inhabits Jajuk Marjanli.
Comparing all these three Azeri signal, it turns out that proceeding in Azerbaijan can lead to a new military confrontation. Moreover, these processes may increase the number of supporters of the war among the Azerbaijani population and to strengthen the “demand” of society into “military solution” to the conflict.
The authorities of Azerbaijan in the current situation, can see all the prerequisites for provoking a new war: the virtual absence of the negotiation process undertaken with the international community to work, support their own companies and alleged decadent mood of the opposite side.
In these circumstances, it becomes necessary not only to find new ways to promote the negotiation process, but also to attract the attention of the countries involved in the settlement process and in General the world community to this problem in order to prevent another bloodshed.