Donald trump takes a promising political decisions (suspension of funding abortions abroad, the nomination Gorsuch Neil (Neil Gorsuch) for the office of member of the Supreme court), which can generate real and lasting change in American society. As we see it (at least yet) is coming to its election promises seriously. However, what will be its security policy in Europe remains a mystery.
Russia wants to solve this mystery force. The resumption of fighting in Eastern Ukraine is probing new American policy and the reaction of the new President of the United States. Meanwhile the United States continues to send mixed signals. Such as the two happened within one month, but going in opposite directions appointment to the post of presidential adviser on national security. Poland should be prepared for all the twists and turns of the course of American politics. Therefore, even before the change of power in Washington, taking into account the possibility of détente in U.S.-Russian relations, Kazimierz Ujazdowski (Ujazdowski Kazimierz) published an article on the demilitarization of the Kaliningrad region as a necessary condition of Polish security. Hard to stand idly by as 300 kilometers from Warsaw Russia puts mobile missile complexes with nuclear missiles.
Some commentators (Wieslaw Pawlak (Pawlak Wiesław), Mikolaj Rosinski (Mikołaj Rusiński)) immediately asked the question, how realistic is the demand for the demilitarization of the Kaliningrad region. We have answered this question already in our text: Polish diplomacy will not be able to achieve the withdrawal of Russian troops from the region. However, it may raise this issue, forcing the others to discuss it, and act so that in discussions on the settlement of relations between Russia and the West it was impossible to get around. As it was impossible to get around the Polish borders during Germany’s reunification.
No one expects that in a modern situation forces Russia to evacuate from the Kaliningrad region troops to allow the poles to feel relaxed. They are there to threaten us. The demilitarization of the Kaliningrad region can occur only in the context of larger scale strategic change. Now the West is beginning to implement the decisions of the Warsaw summit of NATO. In Poland there were American military, and in the Baltic States — NATO troops (including the Polish — Latvia). If the Americans want to start the conversation on the withdrawal of these forces, we will need to know how to formulate the concept of our security interests in negotiations with the allies. Because Kaliningrad oblast is a barometer of security not only for Poland but for the whole of our part of Europe.
Dlugoborski Andrzej (Andrzej Długoborski) wrote that the demand for the demilitarization of the Kaliningrad region will only “exacerbate an already tense relations with Russia.” Such a view is at odds with reality. If Poland wants to pursue an independent policy, she must find a way between confidence in the inevitability of war on Polish territory (which will be for our country a disaster) and ignoring the threat, which in fact only aggravates it. The search for strategic solutions that go beyond the logic of the inevitability of the conflict, serves to strengthen the position of Poland as an active participant in international security policy.
Jacek Kloskowski (Jacek Kłoskowski) asked the question, can Russia really agree to that. Of course, this happens only if she can get something in return or, more likely, if the price of maintaining the status quo will grow. She is now Kaliningrad oblast — this is a very expensive “trump card”, and preparing for its defense in case of a hypothetical conflict is “a strategic nightmare”. Costly for Moscow and the war in Syria, which has allowed her to take the place of arbiter in the middle East. Let me remind you that Soviet Union, whose collapse Putin called the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the XX century became the bankrupt because of participation in the arms race.
Russia’s neighbors, especially after the annexation of Crimea, not feeling increasing threat. Sweden and Finland, which during the cold war maintained a neutral status, often as a last resort option considering the prospect of joining the Alliance. This will give them not only the assurance of allies, but also the opportunity to take part in shaping security policy in the Baltic region. These pragmatic people, the first place is, of course, security, and NATO is just a tool that will allow it to strengthen. Their reaction to the growing tensions could create favourable conditions to the pursuit of peace has found a solid Foundation, and at the same time to point us in the direction for political cooperation. Like every great nation we need to learn to wait, of course, knowing what we expect and what we want to change.