The position of Russia in relation to the likely Armenian-Azerbaijani war

Foreign policy of Russia and Turkey increasingly become similar both in aims and approaches, as both countries are approaching the same status in international relations — become a regional mikrocerrahi.

Of course, Russia continues to defend the benefits in front of Turkey, and one of the important reasons that the current Turkish-Russian relations do not become closer in nature, is that Russia does not accept Turkey as a power that equals.

Indeed, Russia has significant advantages in military and economic spheres, and the positions of the first countries in the world. But Turkey has the leverage and positions in Russia itself, especially, in many regions, what has Russia against Turkey.

At the same time, between Turkey and Russia growing controversies over regional issues, and not only in the black sea-Caucasian and Central Asian regions, but in the middle East and partly in the Balkans.

Characteristically, in the framework of the Armenian-Azerbaijani problems are political lines of Russia and Turkey are becoming mirror images, and, increasingly, not only overall, but for individual events and steps.

Turkey involved in events in the middle East, both in its own initiatives and external and can not pay due attention to the Caucasus, especially because it expects here the opposition not only of Russia but also the United States.

Likewise, Russia is not trying go ahead and to boost its expansion in the Caucasus. However, Azerbaijan, all the more convincing becomes one of the major reserves of Turkey’s foreign policy. Azerbaijan is more comfortable as a reserve than as a partner whose actual problems had to be solved in quite a favorable situation.

Realizing that if I will have to limit or curtail ambitious plans for the middle East, Turkey will not be able to adequately deploy its policy and significantly strengthen positions in the Black sea and the Caucasus, Turkey, however, is trying to apply in this region and other approaches and style.

Turkey is trying to maintain in the South Caucasus, tension and even a situation bordering on the war, and possibly create a situation that would require direct military intervention of NATO, including Turkey.

It is difficult to say to what extent these goals of Turkey agreed with the US, but, most likely, the Americans would not want to have Turkey as a partner in such region as South Caucasus, and especially in military aspect.

It is difficult to assume that Russia was interested in resuming large-scale hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan and the NATO intervention into events in the region. However, quite a high tension in the South Caucasus is very favorable for Russia, as it “reaffirms the legitimacy” of its military presence.

That is, the tactical part of this policy, Russia and Turkey show similar interests.

In relation to the war as such, Turkey has long been intended to increase its importance and more important role, as state able to influence the beginning, course and termination of the war, that is, performing the role of regional conductor.

It would be remiss to deny the fact that Russia would also like to play a similar role, and it is even more than logical, because a different position would have meant concessions to Turkey.

In fact, something similar has taken place during the first Karabakh war, when Russia tried to limit the offensive of the troops of Karabakh and Turkey threatening war. Then, in recognition of the special assistant to the President for national security Affairs Brent Krofta, the Americans visibly startled the Turks by Russian missiles. That was in itself a bluff.

Apparently, this time, the Americans will prefer the same tactics, but how it will be effective? In any case, Russia, moorezilla Azerbaijan to the teeth, will try to show Turkey and the West that it is able to manipulate the Armenian troops and stop the complete military defeat of Azerbaijan.

That Russia will try to convincingly present your capabilities to control the situation and, in parallel, to negotiate with Turkey, once again. Thus, from Russia in this war situation, as always, we should expect a “knife in the back”.

You need to draw the appropriate conclusions and take advantage of the benefits in a future war, which Armenia has already and that can be lost as a result of Russia’s position in the second stage of the war.

The position of Russia expects a complete failure in connection with the contradictions in US foreign policy. American politics may not be long enough to remain in the experimental stage. Neither the democratic nor the Republican stage in Congress will not wait for the complete fall of America’s reputation in the world. The first rejected this policy of the closest friends of D. trump.

It’s possible that trump expects impeachment. Opponents of the declared policy is already quite a lot, and in the United States formed a new opposition, composed of two political parties. And the Republican party will be more active and will be the main opponent of the policy of trump.

But even in the current situation Russia will not be able to enjoy this policy of the United States. It was the American economic ambitions will lead to the extinction of any success of Russia. You need to understand that “political and military” leadership of the United States is noticeably separated, and the Pentagon continues to be in a state of great hostility to Russia and to the countries that are in vassalage to her.

The Pentagon believes that the Central US will continue pressure on Russia and bring her to economic collapse as a result of continuing the arms race. Recruitment administration trump still has not been completed and consists of rather contradictory people, who share anything, but not an ideology.

But the CIA and the Pentagon remain in traditional positions. Already developed new, or rather, continuing the strategy of the Pentagon in relation to the Black sea and South Caucasus. USA have a lot of problems in this direction, but the Americans have already begun to absorb this “inner region”.

With this region associated policy of Turkey and Iran and outlined the essential political bargain with them, possibly in opposition to Russia. Black sea-Caucasian region is one of the key in the fight against the US and Russia. And these tasks will be connected to NATO.