In the first days or weeks of the presidency of trump, who takes office on Friday 20th January, will need to focus on the five capitals — Mexico city, Havana, Moscow, Beijing and Jerusalem to understand the new course of American foreign policy.
As for Mexico, the problem is obvious. The political scientist Ian Bremmer (Ian Bremmer) called “an extreme degree of one-sidedness” the closure of branches of American car companies, resulting in hundreds of thousands of Mexican workers will be on the street. More jobs for the most ardent supporters of trump and more expensive cars to American consumers due to the difference in cost.
It is possible that Havana, the warring of Miami, holds some hope for trump, but the President-elect has repeatedly stated that it made no concessions to the Castro regime will not. At least, the trade embargo will remain in force.
The approaches to Moscow and Beijing closely linked. In this area trump wants to do the opposite of what was carried out Nixon in 1972, when trying to turn Beijing against Moscow. Now the billionaire is trying to isolate Beijing in the South China sea in exchange for recognition of the Russian presence in Syria. But the biggest problem lies in the principle of one China. In this context any steps towards recognition of Taiwan can trigger a tough response. But it is a question of more long-term perspective.
The highest friction will cause possible migration of the American legation from tel Aviv, where all the Western embassies in Jerusalem. The move provoked such concern in the EU that the conference, held this past Sunday in Paris, which was attended by representatives of 70 countries in order to formalize the existence of two States, has become a kind of warning to the Trump, so he left it as is. The recognition of Jerusalem as the “United and indivisible capital” of Israel will in fact mean the rejection of the formula of two States and create conditions for the annexation by Israel of the West Bank of the Jordan river.
But such a move would mean also recognition of the very important facts: Washington has never been and has always provided absolute support to Israel on all issues, and the stalemate over negotiations with the Palestinian national authority is quite satisfied with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for an arbitrarily long time. All this is also linked to a possible revision of the nuclear agreement with Tehran that would suit perfectly for Israel.
Never in the history of the transfer of power from one President was not in such an acute form. While Obama is trying to stake his legacy, trump is trying not to leave a stone unturned.
But, whatever it was, it is unlikely the new President will go cut some more firewood than Bush, which has primary responsibility for the destruction of Iraq. So, there I year-of-era trump.