Alexander Lukashenko spoke in front of the item (“asset”) and citizens in Gomel, his rivals on television. The contrast is stunning. Andrei Dmitriev, and Sergey Caraceni, and Svetlana Tikhanovski said that changes are needed, the current President grimly defended the status quo. And basically repeated the familiar horror stories about the shoes and the whip.
Wife is now arrested blogger Sergei Tikhanovski in early may, when elections were announced, nobody could imagine in the role of opponents of Lukashenko. Today it has become an alternative to him in its purest form. Tikhanovski emphasizes that its mission — after a victory to ensure fair elections with the participation of those who for political reasons was thrown in jail.
Although it repeats over and over again “I’m not a politician,” but the day holds all confident and says all the stronger. It was strong and today’s television appearance. Perhaps the top already regret having been given the go-ahead for the registration.
Tikhanovski trying to attract the electorate of Babariko and Tsepkalo
The main point of the plan Tikhanovski is that it is not going to run the country for five years and will hold new elections, said in comments to Naviny.by the expert of the analytical center “Strategy” (Minsk, Belarus) Valery Karbalevich. In fact, her message is: who against Lukashenko — vote for me, says the analyst. He believes that this is a good, technological progress, “an attempt to bring the electorate of Babariko and Tsepkalo”.
Karbalevich stressed that speakers today candidates Tikhanovski the most “paid attention to the procedure of the elections”. She urged to not vote early, and on August 9 (early voting is considered especially useful for fraud), to organize monitoring, also “sounded a hint: be prepared to defend your choice.”
Why this is stated so carefully? Perhaps Tikhanovski feels that her electorate on the whole “not ready for a revolution,” says Karbalevich. In his opinion, the joint staff (as you know, Tikhanovski supported commands unregistered candidates Victor Babariko and Valery Tsepkalo) actually continues to bet on the thesis of Babariko: if 80 percent vote for an alternative, nobody would dare to rig the elections.
The Director of the Institute of political studies “Political sphere” doctor of political Sciences Andrei Kazakevich in the comments for Naviny.by noted: Tikhanovski will be sympathetic, positive emotions in many people. But she and her team little time, “the staff is largely paralyzed.” The intensity of the campaign decreases, and that “the most significant figure was eliminated from the process.” We are talking about Tikhanovski, Babariko, Tsepkalo.
“Wave of protest largely brought down”, — said the source. “I see no mechanism to change the government,” — he concluded. While he has “a feeling that Lukashenko with his current rhetoric, slogans of basic electoral ceiling of 20-25%”.
Again with the whip, the cart and walking without pants
Today in Gomel at the opening of the clinic Lukashenko is literally persuading listeners: “When you are talking about some reform that you now helicopters the money will bring, will scatter, will you, please, not buying it.”
It is worth noting that none of the competitors promise to throw money from a helicopter does not. But the current President over and over again ascribes it to them, trying to okarikaturit. Apparently, remember the phrase “helicopter money” from Western recipes to support the population in connection with coronariana.
Speaking today before the activists of the Gomel region, the official leader thought again of the dashing 90’s, when “we were barefoot, without pants, hungry.” This way in recent months has also become a refrain Lukashenko. And not from good life. The last and the current five-year plan failed. The average salary in dollars is not higher than a decade ago. It remains to exaggerate, drawing the post-Soviet collapse.
But, first, no pants, still did not go. Second, neighboring Poland, for example, during this time, so rushed that Belarus remains only dust. Despite the fact that presidents of the poles change.
“If we have such a policy (which we scientifically call socially oriented) folk is not performed, we would be in this room today were not. Hold the meeting here and meeting other people, if even such a cozy room managed to save,” — said Lukashenko in Gomel.
This is the horror story for the item with the subtext: don’t stop the fifth column at any price — will lose seats, status. The rotation of ruling elites, which in democratic countries is the norm and, in General, the meaning of the election, in speeches Lukashenko served as a crime and a disaster.
If another policy, he said, “we would be clothed in sandals, were harnessed to a cart and drove would whip.” This set of metaphors, the President also exploit mercilessly, with mind whether invaders, whether potential homegrown oligarchs, who in his interpretation certainly ruled and fatten we would have in case of reform, condemning people to hunger. A sort of animated pictures from the history books about the era of wild capitalism and damned tsarism.
The strengthening of the police state or transformation?
It seems that such rhetoric if it can work, only for the most backward, zashugannyh, unassuming, Patriarchal part of the population. A lot of this left? At the end of may — first half of June, in the days of “sign of revolution”, in queues to the pickets alternate candidates to sign their nomination, stood a lot of ordinary people, pensioners. Referring to the representatives of the nuclear electorate Lukashenko. But a bonfire in the tail and mane bigger notebooks opposition.
There are still officials, law enforcers, court businessmen, and their families. I’m sure some of them are really afraid to lose in the event of change, much or all, and therefore prefers to hold on to Lukashenko. However, more progressive part of these social groups may well attract and slogans of avoiding tyranny, the emancipation of initiatives that promoted and promote alternative candidates.
Horror stories about the dashing 90-e is unlikely to have an impression on the main part of the middle class, businessmen, intellectuals, youth. These people want Outlook, the European standards of work and life. These social strata Lukashenko is clearly losing. He has no attractive positive program. A promise to configure bridges and giants in the next five years — sad Soviet approach, it is unlikely someone warm. Too much money ditching on state modernization, and good with gulkin nose. Yes, now there’s no money left.
However, Lukashenka due to the power of the state, force is almost certainly the opportunity to stay at the helm after 9 August. But what he offers the country will lead?
There are two possible scenarios, says Kazakevich. First, the further retention of power based on the base electorate in 20-25% and power methods. But in this case, Lukashenko will be “strong pressure from the society, economy and elite.” The analyst does not exclude the reform scenario. This, in his opinion, the only authorities with a way to attract additional segments of the population, to build a sustainable political system.
Thus, in the case of a new five-year term of Lukashenko will be faced with a challenge: to strengthen the police state, to escalate fear, or liberate the potential of society, to go to convert that to him, as visible to the naked eye, deeply nasty.
Both ways are for him considerable risks. And judging by the speeches these days, the option transforms the permanent President is not ready.
Meanwhile, his horror that in case of victory of a political alternative Belarusians will lash the whip, probably, many cause profound irony. Yeah, you would think that today, when for the policy Blizzard batons and thrown in jail, we’re in the realm of freedom.