What to do with the agreements on Donbas: the expert described three scenarios for Ukraine

Ukraine could change the tactics of military actions on the front

Ukraine is currently the best option in the Donbass – this is a tactic of freezing the conflict, but in parallel to carry out active activities with the local population in the occupied territories and to change military tactics at the front. This is referred to in our material: “the Minsk agreements “dead” and hybrid annexation continues”.

Deputy Director for international Affairs of the research Center for army, conversion and disarmament Michael Samus said that there are three options for ways in which can go to Kiev, but two of them are not favorable to us.

“For Ukraine, there are three scenarios of action. The first is the continuation of the implementation of the Minsk agreements, as they were recorded in 2014-2015, which is disadvantageous for Ukraine. An algorithm that is based on, presupposes changes in the Ukrainian legislation and the Constitution, and then to the fulfillment of Russia’s security part – out its military units and mercenaries from the Donbas and the transfer of control over the border. Second – to withdraw from the Minsk agreements, which, again, is advantageous to Russia. In this case, Moscow can say that Ukraine wants to fulfill its obligations, so it is necessary to lift the sanctions against Ukraine and to enter. The third is to continue the tactics of freezing the conflict, achieving its goals in its own interests,” he said.

In the Kremlin told about the consequences of Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Minsk agreements

He explained that the Minsk agreement can occur only if there is a change in the sequence: first, the implementation of the security part (the withdrawal of Russian troops, the transfer of border control, security preparations for the elections), and only then – political changes in the laws and the Constitution. But the expert notes that Russia will not go for it, and that means we will be about in the same condition as now.

“For Ukraine, I believe, is the best option, because then Russia did not reach their goals – the destruction of Ukraine fully or embedding controlled by Russia Donbass “political body” of Ukraine. Instead, this frozen conflict, Ukraine should itself carry out activities with the local population in the occupied territories and to change military tactics. We have to resort to active measures, but asymmetrically: if Russian snipers killed Ukrainian soldiers, Ukraine should use attack drones Bayraktar. And say this is so that while Russian snipers kill our soldiers, we will carry out such activities. This is an occupied Ukrainian territory, where Ukraine can act as anyone, defending his soldiers, and their territorial integrity and sovereignty. European partners it will not say anything. Russia also formally nothing to say, because it is, according to them, alleged internal conflict,” said Samus.

As told in comments to the website, “Today,” first Deputy Director of the Center “New Europe” Serhiy SOLODKY, Russia has long been out of the Minsk agreements, and violated them immediately after signing in 2015. Ukraine, in spite of the destructive position of the Russians, it is not necessary to get out of the “Minsk”, and it is better to use this for the introduction of new sanctions against Russia.