The fact that the President of the United States Donald trump has publicly announced its intention to invite Russia to take part in the next meeting “the Big seven” became the present shock — in geopolitics, the field of intelligence and security.
How this shock will affect Israel?
The Group of seven includes the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the UK. This format often allows for closely coupled with democratic allies of the discussion about the formation of the world order on issues of diplomacy and security.
In addition, during these meetings, often there is an exchange of secret intelligence. Of course, these decisions and the exchange of intelligence have an impact on the middle East and often in Israel.
That would mean engaging Russia to work in this group?
Moscow is challenging the US policy of trying to weaken American democracy and discredit the elections, but also against Iran, Syria and other (leaving aside the debate about the annexation by Russia of Ukraine).
Israel is trying to maintain good relations with Russia, not competes with it, as do the United States and cooperates or seeks to “settle disputes” with Moscow in those areas where policy conflicts with each other.
But the Director of counterintelligence and the Israeli security (Shin bet) Nadav Argaman (Nadav Argaman) has warned that Russia has been trying — at least — to interfere in some aspects of the elections in Israel, and in regard to Iran and Syria, Russia’s policy is much more problematic for Israel than the US policy.
For America the main threat from Russia is the cyber threat.
But for Israel, the main threat is that Russia may help Iran to create in Syria a new front against the Jewish state and to support Tehran in the nuclear standoff.
If not for Russia’s presence in Syria and its sale to the Assad regime anti-aircraft missile system s-300, Israel would have more freedom of action to exclude the presence of Iran (although some say that Israel has overcome the defense system s-300).
Currently, Israel apparently pushes Iranian forces in Syria, but there was a time when Russia’s presence significantly reduced the ability of Jerusalem to act.
Russia gave anti-aircraft missile system s-300 to Iran. She even discussed the possibility of providing Iran the s-400. Both steps complicate the ability of Israel to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities as a means of containment of the Islamic Republic of seeking to develop nuclear weapons.
Moreover, the Iranian regime is, apparently, withstand the “maximum pressure” from the US and refuses to give up its nuclear program, mostly thanks to the economic support of Russia and China.
Indeed, between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Russian President Vladimir Putin there is an active and open dialogue. In this dialogue there had been some symbolic victories, such as the return to Israel of the remains Baumela Zechariah (Zechariah Baumel) and the release of Naamah Issachar (Issachar Naama).
There are also various economic and social spheres in which Israel and Russia are cooperating and trying to help each other.
But Russia’s Alliance with Iran and Syria is much more important than common interests with Israel and close relations of Jerusalem with the West was, is and will be the line of division between the parties.
Thinking about trump wanting to attract Russia to participate in the summit “Big seven”?
There are at least two possible options.
First, Russia is too powerful to ignore. It is possible that they are driven by the hope that a deeper engagement in a dialogue with the West and a more respectful attitude can lead to the fact that it will hold more responsible and more focused on the interaction of international politics.
The extreme version of this same strategy involves the desire simply to avoid misunderstandings and to be clear about where the lines of conflict between Russia and the West, and where they are not.
But there is another option — a more unpleasant and concern. It is based on some inexplicable actions of trump in relation to Putin. For example, he believed not the CIA, and Putin, who said that the American elections in 2016, Russia did not intervene.
This option assumes that for one reason or another, trump biased to Putin and Russia and is experiencing a weakness for them.
This is potentially dangerous for Israel, because it can lead to the fact that Russia and its allies Iran and Syria will have new opportunities to exert pressure on Israel.
It can also lead to leak into Russia Israel’s possession of classified intelligence that has already happened in 2017 because of trump.
The Israelis may not like the fact that trump is trying to find approaches and to move closer to Moscow and thus requires Israel to distance itself from China.
It is possible that the trump does this as part of its wider strategy to distance Russia from China and further isolate Beijing. It also can be unpleasant to impress the Israelis, who will see this as hypocrisy.
Trump could to get closer to Russia and interact with it in conditions when it helps Iran and Syria, which pose a serious threat to Israel’s security. But Jerusalem cannot enter into economic transactions with China due to global competition, the United States with the Chinese, which does not have much effect on Israel’s security.
This does not mean that China’s actions during the crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic, caused no doubt from his former Israeli supporters — of course, they are forced to think even strong supporters.
But if trump as conditions for the accession of Putin in the elite Western club does not require to change the attitude to Iran and Syria, then take this new initiative should not only consider how to minimize the negative effects.