Pessimistic forecasts have been avoided: what is happening in the fuel market in Ukraine

Experts say that petrol and diesel will fall in price by 3-4%, and the liquefied gas found a “price bottom”

Last week, Ukraine continued fuel “price fall”: the oil is rapidly dropping, the price tags on stelae, each day has varied in the smaller side. As a result, the first working day of may gasoline and diesel fuel fell in price by almost 90 kopecks./l, liquefied gas – by 50 kopecks./l. That is, in comparison with January, the fuel is now cheaper by almost UAH 5/l, or 20%.

What trends to expect this week, told our experts: Director of consulting group “A-95” Sergey Kuiun, the Deputy Director of the Scientific-technical center “Psyche” Gennady Ryabtsev and market analyst of liquefied natural gas Artem Kuyun.

What has changed in a week

Prices fell in all regions, but the difference in the rate of decline increased as the areas and types of petroleum products. For example, in the Kirovohrad region a-95 gasoline fell by 1.07 UAH/l, and in Donetsk region – only 22 kopecks./l. But in the Donbas most dropped the price of diesel fuel, from UAH 1.13/l is still slowly getting cheaper fuel to the region – only 48 kopecks./l, but here two weeks prices fell almost on the hryvnia. The situation is the same with LPG: in the Donetsk region, the cost was reduced by 1.02 UAH/l, and in the Ternopil region – only 4 kopecks./l.

The difference between the highest and lowest prices depending on region, increased for all fuels.

A-92 the range of prices amounted to 16.4% (3,26 UAH/liter, plus 42 kopecks./l) was 13.7 percent, A-95 – 14,8%, (of 3.09 UAH/liter, plus 45 kopecks./l) was 12.1 percent, according to the diesel engine of 12.7% (2,63 UAH/liter, plus 40 kopecks./l) was 10.4 percent, according to autogas 24,2% (1,89 UAH/liter, plus 29 kopecks./l), was 19.7 per cent.

Prices for A-92

The average price for Ukraine – UAH 21,11/l (a reduction by 87 kopecks./l) and highest in Luhansk region – UAH 23,16/l (reduction by 48 kopecks./l) and lowest in the Sumy region – UAH 19,90/l (a reduction by 90 kopecks./l).

Luhansk oblast – remains the only one where the A-92 is more expensive 23 UAH/l, and only in Sumy “second” is already below 20 UAH/l. In most areas, the price is in the corridor 20,40-21,50 UAH/liter.

In Kiev, the cost of gasoline A-92 – 21,68 UAH/l (minus 66 kopecks./l).

Prices for A-95

The average price for Ukraine of 22.11 UAH/l (a reduction by 87 kopecks./l) and highest in Luhansk region – UAH is 23.99/l (reduction by 49 kopecks./l), and lowest in Sumy region 20,90 UAH/l (a reduction by 94 kopecks./l), only here it is possible to refuel the “fifth” cheaper 21 UAH/liter.

In half of the regions of A-95 costs less 22 UAH/l, in ten areas it is cheaper to 22.5 UAH/liter.

In Kiev, the cost of gasoline A-95 – of 23.41 UAH/l (minus 70 kopecks./l).

Prices on DT

The average price for Ukraine – 21,57 UAH/l (reduction by 83 kopecks./l) and highest in Luhansk region – UAH 23,26/l (reduction by 48 kopecks./l) and lowest in the Sumy region – UAH 20,63/l (a reduction by 90 kopecks./l). Thus, Sumy for the first time in the last month has become a field where the most affordable prices for gasoline and diesel fuel.

Lugansk region is the only place where diesel fuel still costs more than 23 UAH/l. In most areas the price within 21,30-of 21.70 UAH/l, and in three areas it is below 21 UAH/liter.

In Kiev, the cost of diesel fuel – of 22.53 UAH/l (minus 58 kopecks./l).

The price of LPG

The average price for Ukraine – UAH 8.33/l (a reduction by 51 kopecks./l) and highest in Ternopil region – UAH RS 9.69/litre (cheaper by 4 kopecks./l), the lowest – in Kiev region – 7, 80 UAH/l (reduction by 57 kopecks./l).

In all areas, in addition to Ternopil, gas is cheaper than 9 UAH/l, in most areas, the price in the range of 8.00-8.50 UAH/liter.

In Kiev, the cost of gas – 8,29 UAH/l (minus 42 kopecks./l).

Analysis of the situation on the market

Experts say that the market situation is similar to that which was last week.

“Last month in connection with the sharp fall in oil prices, oil products in large wholesale fell by more than a third, and lots of cheap fuel more reach retail – analyzes Gennady Ryabtsev. – These stocks have not yet sold out due to low demand from consumers in connection with the ongoing quarantine, which is reflected in the retail prices they have a month to decrease weekly by 3-4%”.

According to Sergey Kuyun, the market last week moved on the same course as before.

“Another significant decline in prices occurred in the past may holidays, – said the expert. – At the same time managed to avoid pessimistic forecasts to reduce sales. They fell less than expected, so traders can adjust prices is to lower them due to increasing sales volumes, earning on the turnover. Because the more sales, the lower the per liter constant component of the cost of daily maintenance of gas station”.

Artem Kuyun said that petrol was cheaper because of low consumption and high competition in the market. According to him, due to quarantine, retail sales of gas fell to 30%. In the end, at the beginning of April, the surplus in the market of liquefied natural gas traders was estimated at 20-25 kt, and he was not chosen by the consumers.

Continued to lower the prices and the so-called “trashy” (illegal) filling.

Prices, according to experts, has decreased due to the increase in sales volume, as gradually, the demand still increases. But a price limit is almost reached.

“Retailers, discount stores prices dropped to 7-7,5 UAH/l, large branded networks – 8,5 UAH/liter taking into account the margin. But many brands are implementing loyalty program for regular customers, so those customers who have a discount card, can get discount up to 1 UAH/liter,” explained Artem Kuyun.

What can change in a week

Experts promise that the decline in the prices of gasoline and diesel fuel will continue for another week, as it is not sold stocks, bought at low wholesale prices. And the demand for quarantine is still far from that of the spring-summer season, when fuel traditionally required much more than fall and winter.

“For consumers, the prognosis is good: I hope that the next week the price of gasoline and diesel fuel in many regions “zanimat” under 20 UAH/l,” – says Sergey Kuiun.

Gennady Ryabtsev said that abroad, where Ukraine, we will remind, imports 80% of oil products, wholesale prices have stabilized. If this trend becomes sustainable, it will eventually slow down the fall of prices we have.

“In the last days of April, world prices for crude oil and fuel quotations in Europe showed growth on expectations of a recovery in demand from-for taken by the governments of many European countries of measures for a gradual exit from quarantine. But Ukraine is not yet affected. We have in the next week, the downtrend will remain at the level of 3-4% from current prices, so the retail price reduction is expected for gasoline and diesel fuel by 50 kopecks/liter, and more”, – says Gennady Ryabtsev.

Artem Kuyun says that the gas has practically reached the lower price limit.

“In the conditions of tough competition next week can only be a small adjustment of retail prices depending on the purchase price of gas in the opt”, – predicts Artem Kuyun.

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