The Makron will not help: the “victory” of Ukraine became very annoying Europe

This week Kyiv hosted the summit Ukraine-EU with participation of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko, head of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker and President of the European Council Donald Tusk. At the summit the parties have not reached consensus and have been unable to adopt a final joint Declaration. Sources of “Apostrophe” in the European diplomatic circles say that the incident is not surprising, because in 2016 it was decided that Ukraine does not receive the status of candidate for accession to the EU. Also, the EU does not intend to offer alternative membership options or scenarios of convergence, because tired of the constant use of Ukrainian politicians of Europe for their own PR.

The summit Ukraine-EU was held in Kyiv on 12-13 July, and its results were not made the traditional joint Declaration in which the parties announce further plans for cooperation. Petro Poroshenko, the leaders of the European Union several times focused on the European aspirations of Ukraine, but the support is not received. According to media reports, the reason that the parties never adopted the outcome document, is that Kiev insisted on the inclusion in the text of a paragraph on the recognition of the EU the European aspirations of Ukraine. But against such a formulation is strictly made by the Netherlands, a position that was supported by Germany and France. It is worth noting that the Netherlands year blocked final ratification of the Agreement on Association of Ukraine with the EU. In December 2016 was able to negotiate a special statement, which says that SA does not grant the status of candidate for EU membership, and does not create the obligations about the assignment of such status to Ukraine in the future.

That is, instead of uncertainty about the future of relations with December last year, Ukraine has established a clear certainty while there is agreement about any new status of the question. And in order to implement the agreement, Kiev will take decades. Therefore, it is clear that as of today, the EU sees no reason to talk about Ukraine, noted the EU now.

Sources of “Apostrophe” in European diplomatic circles have confirmed that in its view, the Netherlands is not alone. “It is the position not only of the Netherlands, in fact the Netherlands has expressed what I think many other countries, in particular Germany and France, who feel that they are cheated, and so it all becomes the position of the European Union. Here (European politicians, Apostrophe) already starts to get the use of the EU in all the PR speeches of Ukrainian politicians, saying that whatever happens with Ukraine, immediately your President makes a PR and never asks whether we agree that we both used. If your power will draw conclusions and will not continue to use us for political games, we are still going to suffer, and if you continue this continue, we will not allow to be used,” says the source.

The source also added that no European aspirations of Ukraine in Europe, yet do not want to hear: “In the Agreement (as of December 15, 2016, Apostrophe) clearly indicated that Ukraine may not have the status of candidate for EU membership. How can we then say that the EU welcomes the European aspirations? This Agreement does not create conditions.”

In addition, according to the source, the effective cooperation and support will depend on several elements. “If in Ukraine will take place very fast systemic reform, if it is really a year or two [will be] to show that Ukraine has changed: there is no corruption, resolve the conflict with Russia. But while systemic reforms will not, no new best conditions, we are not talking”, — said the source of “Apostrophes”.

According to sources, the process of resolving the crisis with Russia has now lost momentum, as the EU expects, what position will the United States and the Russian Federation.

“With regard to settlement in the Donbass, all have hands, all waiting for what agree the Russians and the Americans. Now the situation is such that there is no agreement, they just started to contact. Therefore, at least an understanding of what a possible agreement, will be in three or four months. Now in diplomatic circles characterise the situation: wait and see (wait and see — Apostrophe). In a European perspective major changes on the issue of settlement in the Donbass will not be as long as there will be elections in Germany (September this year — the Apostrophe),” — says the interlocutor of “Apostrophes”.

In this regard while also it is not necessary to lay high hopes on the President of France Emmanuel Makron. “He’s a young guy. He ambitions. He wants to be the new Charles de Gaulle Europe, Helmut Kohl in Europe. He’s like a clean slate, who it will affect, will continue to be. He has engaged in the formation of the team, and Ukraine is in the foreign Ministry, which refers to Ukraine restrained, not to say that very cautiously. Therefore, France will not do anything. And he [Rules] Ukraine is not a priority,” — said in comments “Apostrophe” another European diplomat who requested anonymity.

According to the former Minister of foreign Affairs of Ukraine Konstantin Grishchenko, the Ukrainian side at the level of the President and his administration are given very positive assessment and hushed up the fact that the Ukraine has lost one of the basic elements of the European future. We are talking about the non-confirmation of the prospect is not even EU membership, but simply the recognition of the European aspirations of Ukraine.

“It is obvious that Ukraine reserves the right to insist that it is, ultimately, may become a full member of the EU, but at this stage we lose what unites Poland, Hungary, all other countries of Eastern Europe, mobilized the society to conduct all necessary reforms and to explain to the public what is needed, especially in certain sectors, those are the sacrifices that I had to go to the societies of those countries. And it’s a tradition, because even at the stage of negotiations on signing the Association Agreement formula, which was included in the preamble, was considered totally inadequate. Then it is tied to the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych, with the attempt of those who [were] in opposition, to defer for longer than the signing of the Association Agreement to be signed by the right people at the right time. Therefore lost some opportunities, but at this stage everything indicates that the current authorities in Europe are viewed with skepticism, at least, do not see Ukraine at this power as a country, where you can confirm the prospect of a European future.

This is the main problem, and everything else (at the summit Ukraine-EU,- Apostrophe) was, I believe, a fairly pragmatic, interspersed with positive, in particular, on a number of practical areas of cooperation, but this, unfortunately, is not enough” — said Grishchenko “Apostrophe”.

According to the diplomat, in order to improve relations of Ukraine with the EU, should no longer be promoted on European integration topic. “It causes terrible irritation in Brussels and in many capitals. Well, we celebrated the positive — the visa-free regime. But in the execution of many aspects of that Association Agreement, the reform is a serious and acute dissatisfaction, both in Brussels and in other capitals — Berlin, Paris, not to mention the same in the Netherlands. It was therefore a dreadful annoyance when solid victory proclaimed in Kiev, at a time when there (in the EU — Apostrophe) a very different perception exists. And this dissonance only deepens the reluctance to meet the real needs of Ukraine in assistance of Europe — in the political sphere and economic,” adds the former Minister.

This position unofficially confirmed by European diplomats. “As for the Marshall plan (to allocate major financial assistance to Ukraine, — the Apostrophe), now there are difficulties even in order to allocate the next tranche of macro-financial assistance. Yes, they can allocate 300-400 million annually. All this talk of a 500 billion — a conversation about anything. Now not talking about any alternative plans,” the sources noted “the Apostrophe”.

According to the diplomat, the expert of Fund “Maidan foreign Affairs” Alexander Jara, the current problems are the consequence of a failure of the work of the Ukrainian diplomacy. “When Ukraine agreed (in the past year — an Apostrophe) on the option that will be a separate statement of the Netherlands, she actually swallowed this nuance and has not stated that there can be no changes or reservations to the agreement, since the agreement does not involve participation of any other parties. It turns out there is one country against those of other European countries and, moreover, contrary to the opinion of Ukraine, made significant adjustments to its meaning.

Then the Ukrainian diplomacy, said nothing, and, consequently, now we have the unpleasant moment. Even the fact that the policy of “open doors” is a common formula, and it is available in the statutory documents of the EU, had no impact on it, European countries don’t want to confirm it in respect of Ukraine, and it’s frustrating. And, of course, it does not add evrooptimizma Ukrainian citizens”, — commented on the “Apostrophe” ‘hara.

On the one hand, for us the tragedy of not, continues the diplomat, because Ukraine is not ready to join the EU, but from the diplomatic point of view, each document may have an impact ultimately on the parameters of our cooperation or to the next agreement.

At the same time the expert of the International centre for policy studies, Yevgeny Yaroshenko sure that Ukraine shouldn’t count on the prospect of EU membership in the next few decades.

“If the Association Agreement still contained a certain ambiguity about the possible entry of Ukraine into the European Union (not by providing, but not denying such a prospect), the decision of the EU Council agreement of 15 December 2016 definitively placed all points over “I”. This decision, which was adopted after the infamous Dutch referendum is legally binding, and, among others, contains a provision that the Association Agreement gives Ukraine the status of candidate countries for accession to the EU, and is not a guarantee of assignment to such status in the future. Consequently, the failure of the joint statement at this summit Ukraine-EU on the recognition of “European aspirations” or the “European choice” does not change anything in fact… on the one hand, the slow pace of reforms and fight against corruption reduces the interest of Brussels to deepen cooperation with Kiev. On the other hand, Ukraine has established a foothold among the secondary issues of the EU policy for Brexit, migration, terrorism, financial problems and other priorities,” summarizes the expert.