Whether threatens the national currency “seasonal collapse” in August: weather experts

The summer lull in the currency market ends in August. The economy is gradually prepared to fall — in August start active purchases of gas for the heating period. In addition, increase the activity of the agro-industrial sector and importers, preparing postoppussy sales. Last year, “August” expectations were met completely. If since the beginning of June 2016, the hryvnia has not dropped below a level of 25 UAH/USD., starting from 10 August, the dollar rebounded sharply upward, reaching to the end of the month, mark 26.37 UAH, writes “Business”.

The tension in the market last year repaid the tranche of the IMF, which Ukraine received in early September. This helped to reduce risks associated primarily with payment coupon income according to the old Ukrainian Eurobonds. Experts analyzed, repeated the same scenario in 2017.

“In August, foreign exchange market out of the season of low demand for foreign currency. Accordingly, the balance of demand and supply in the market will change in the prevalence of demand. Additional demand in the coming months will shape a new wave of purchase of currency for repatriation of dividends to companies with foreign shareholders. At the same time, grounds for strong devaluation of the hryvnia no, as commodity prices of Ukrainian exports are maintained at a relatively high level,” – said the chief economist of “Alfa-Bank Ukraine” and notes that clearing the dollar amount to the end of August to 26.6 UAH.

More optimistic forecasts with the Director of Treasury Bank “Credit Dnepr” Oleg Kurinnoy. He believes that the clearing rate for the beginning of autumn up to 26.2 UAH/USD, and cash to 26.5 UAH/USD.

“We expect that within one month in the foreign exchange market will remain fairly stable situation. The preconditions for any sharp fluctuations in the near future is not observed”, – said Kurinnoy.


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At the same time, the Director of the Department of market research Agency IBI-Rating Victor szulik predicts the growth of a cash dollar exchange rate to 27 UAH.

“Risks to the stability of the hryvnia in the next few weeks could worsen. First, the threat to foreign exchange liquidity of the country (and international reserves in particular) in claims before the international courts; second, no specific predictions about the conditions (and conservation) cooperation with private international creditors; and thirdly, there remains the issue of keeping the balance on the current account under a certain easing of administrative restrictions by the NBU. While our expectations for the current month in favor of a moderate devaluation of the national currency,” explained szulik.

Don’t rule out the possibility of traditional devaluation in August and the Deputy Director of analytical Department of company “Alpari” Natalia Milchakova.

“It is probably for several reasons. First, summer is a traditional time revaluation of the hryvnia, and when the summer ends, the hryvnia depreciates against the world’s reserve currencies. Second, the growth rate of GDP and industrial production slowed down, and, probably, the national Bank may cease so much to keep the hryvnia from external shocks to raise the competitiveness of Ukrainian export products. Thirdly, much will depend on the actions of the fed and the European Central Bank, ie, if the dollar starts to strengthen, or, for example, the Euro strengthened even more, the hryvnia exchange rate will not be slow to affect negatively,” – said Milchakova.

Recall, today, August 1, NBU set such rates of major foreign currencies against the hryvnia:

1 USD – UAH 25,85;
1 Euro 30,31 UAH;
10 Russian rubles – UAH 4,3.

Under the baseline scenario, Ukraine’s first three-year Budget resolution, in 2017, the average annual hryvnia exchange rate is projected at 27.8 million UAH/USD., in 2018 on the $ 29.3 UAH/USD., in 2019 – 30.5 UAH/USD. and in 2020 – 31 UAH/USD.