Threat or reason: look at the Belarusian exercises “West-2017”

Estonian summer severe test of endurance and patience for all estanzuela. It often seems that it doesn’t exist, but the sun will Shine and the world is very different. It is not surprising that the discussions in the Estonian press and political circles, no less severe. For example, does not ponder whether Russia is a huge neighbor Estonia with a complicated character — under cover of exercises “West-2017” to absorb his very close cousin while Belarus and then and look to pull the plug in the form of Suvalki corridor all the Baltic sisters — Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

In Belarus, the Russian troops began to arrive already, to be exact, from July 23, so it’s time for us to razbiratsya this problem.

First, what kind of teachings are “West-2017”? What is special about them? I must say, it is a planned event which is held every two years jointly by the armed forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. This year the main phase of the exercises planned for the period from 14 to 20 September. Most likely the “West-2017” will be part of a larger. At the same time, Russia plans military and other training in different theaters of the proposed military action along their very long borders.

Demonstration of force — of course, exercise combat operations against Lithuania and Poland in Suwalki the corridor — quite possibly, the interaction of their forces with colleagues from Belarus — of course. All of this will be in the process of the exercises “West-2017”, but a number of Western experts, tinogasta the Belarusian foreign Ministry, even the Estonian intelligence, saying that we still have the occupation of Belarus by Russian troops. Such an interesting occupation, which everyone knows a year before the events… But let’s say and move on.

Secondly, we ask the question, why would Russia and Belarus, these teachings actually hold? The answer is very simple. About then why Estonia and the United States and other NATO countries. As we know, the confrontation between Russia and the Western world is now a very serious. And certainly the Russian leadership wants to keep their own and allied forces prepared for different scenarios.

And it happened almost since the coming to power of Alexander Lukashenko in 1994, the joint efforts of both countries and quite freely, had created a number of integration structures, the crown of which became the Union state of Russia and Belarus, the CSTO and the Customs Union, i.e. in simple terms the political, military and economic Alliance between these countries.

What does that entail? That the allies should be able to help and support each other in all circumstances. In particular, in the case of a military conflict. And also the fact that if a strong party in the Union (Russia), weak (Belarus) need to perform. The other option of course is consensus, negotiation and respect for the positions of partner, but these practices in the post-Soviet realities of Russia and Belarus simply did not stick.

Arises the perennial question: why capture its closest ally, if everything is tied? Where you have seen problems, for example, between members of the EU or NATO in such matters? But we are not so simple. It’s only in the West that is written in the contract, inviolable and enforced. In the post-Soviet space is just an excuse for the discussion and decision of a question on concepts.

Here, for example, Alexander G. said: I’m worse than that of Vladimir Vladimirovich, because I rule like a king for over 20 years and he almost sat down on the Kremlin throne. Why should I do what I’m supposed ally, but it is not profitable? For example, to pay for gas under the contract, to recognize the Crimea or Abkhazia, even there, to stand in the same trench against the evil NATO and so on… so I will not, I will do what I’m wondering, since I’m totally in Belarus the sovereign. And as my tongue hanging nice and a great experience, as always first quarrel with Vladimir Putin, and then will oboltus… And NATO will look at it with great affection and interest.

Because of such actions in recent years, problems in relations between Belarus and Russia has accumulated a critical, already no one they can not hide neither the West nor at home. Side rather tolerate each other than live in perfect harmony. And this is in the context of events in Ukraine in 2014, forcing the West to ask questions, but do not want Mr Putin during these exercises, finally and definitively, to solve the Belarusian issue, in lead, so to speak, to the loyalty of his “presumptuous vassal”? And especially the Baltic States and Poland are nervous about this, because, of course, for them, this vassal (Lukashenko and Belarus under his authority), especially made constantly in conflict with his sovereign (Russia) is much more convenient than Russian tanks, aircraft and Iskander on their borders, in Belarus.

But unfortunately, not for respected Western neighbors of Belarus, no to Lukashenka the most encouraging facts just yet. The fact that they are discussing the possibility of behavior for the country and its ruler, and what their by all means convince specially appointed messengers of the Belarusian authorities, no longer a real possibility.

The question of the future sovereignty of the Republic of Belarus in the hands of the Lord God, so to speak, of Vladimir Putin — Orthodox servants of his. Since 1996 the Republic of Belarus took control completely and irrevocably Alexander Lukashenko with the invaluable help and support of the Russian Federation.

Since then, never had such a situation and, I fear, will never be that without the economic, political and military protectorate of the Russian regime of Lukashenka would have been capable of independent life. No matter how played, Belarus, China, Iran, the Arabs or the EU and NATO. It understands Russia, knows it Lukashenko. For this reason, to send troops and with their help, change the power — measure is absolutely redundant and unnecessary, even more so before the re-election of Vladimir Putin in March 2018.

I think there are other 1001 ways to achieve the desired from the Kremlin — and while they are working. Otherwise, neither Lukashenko nor Belarus under his control a long time would not exist.

So, dear extensibility, we can enjoy a few days of Estonian summer quite quietly, from Belarus to us while threatens nothing. There have all been wrong.

Pavel Morozov — the Creator of the AGC TV, a civil society activist from Belarus, was granted political asylum in Estonia in 2007.