The American edition of the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Secretary of defense James Mattis approved the plan of supplying Ukraine defensive weapons, in which she will receive anti-tank missile Javelin and anti-aircraft guns. According to journalists, the White house plan have not yet discussed, and President Donald trump is not yet acquainted with its contents. About how this decision will change the situation on the front and what reaction we should expect from Russia, “Apostrophe” said military expert Alexey arestovich.
The probability of such supplies is quite high. As for the delivery time, then this question is even American senators and the Minister of defense can’t answer. I think the decision on granting this arms to go package. And is it after us will appreciate the Russian response to sanctions (expulsion of diplomats is only the beginning), I’ll see what the Russians will do in Syria, in Iraq (now there is a very active Russian-Iraqi contacts), making Russian-American relations and, if necessary, will give Ukraine these complexes.
If we talk about the necessary number of such complexes, can be calculated from the Soviet organizational structure. For example, in the mechanized division BMP on the state of the platoon had three-tank — for each BMP was standing ATGM. If divisions in the APC, the company was a separate section of the ATRA — 4-6 complexes. Therefore, in every platoon, one or two of the complex. We need approximately the same order: two armed and the third is a spare. On the frontline platoon holding about 600 metres of defense. The front line we have 500 kilometers — about 500 worth of platoon, although in reality less: there are lines where it is impossible to attack tanks — there are rivers, lakes. Assuming the number — three sets on the squad, we need 1 500 Javelin. Still need more teaching materials for training centers and material-technical base of only 2 000-2 500 complexes. It would radically change the course of the conflict.
Problems with training military APU to work with the new complexes will not be — it will take one to two weeks. Harder to retrain maintenance personnel who will operate these systems. The fact that the Javelin belongs to the third generation and operate on the principle of “fire and forget” — put the label pressed a button and everything.
Transfer Javelin Ukraine is an international precedent. This means support signal us and Europe and signal to Russia that no one will hold it — the Americans crossed the red line that is not crossed in four years. This means that they are not afraid of escalation of the conflict and is ready when you try escalation from the Russian side to have to hurt you for war Russia by Ukrainian soldiers, but with American weapons.
Russia, reacting to the decision, will be angry and will say that it is not constructive and does not correspond to the Minsk process. Will try a couple of times to shoot at the front. That’s all. We give them these Javelin will take back her wish and show that the game has changed. This situation is called “weapon game-changing”.
Why do Americans change the situation on the battlefield? They want to force Russia to peace talks. And it can be done, just raising the price for trying to continue fighting. They are all ways tried, persuaded as he could, now begins a new cold war, it is clear that the United States is tired. They impose sanctions and at the same time as a means of pressure on Russia, us weapons are issued, there is pressure from both sides, because Americans understand that Russia does not want.
For us it is very good because it is a fact of support and overcoming important obstacles. One lethal weapon set, then it may be followed by the second, fifth, tenth. The main task was to break through this semipermeable membrane, which we were not allowed. It is also a very big difference on the battlefield — the price of any movements in our direction will greatly increase. Modern tank costs 5 million dollars, and it can shoot the ordinary infantry Mykola, who spent two weeks studying the site, and now pressed two buttons. It very much will force Russia to think about.
Early for Russia to attack the Ukrainian positions at a cost of two dead and a few captured rifles, and now it will cost six corpses and the stricken object of armored vehicles. Even for such a crazy country like Russia, which is ready to spend on the war a lot of resources, the loss of several armored vehicles on a monthly basis — it is very expensive. During the six months they accumulate large losses and be forced to change strategy.