The beginning of the week was very rich in events related to the global political situation, which in turn depends on disturbances in Washington, the capital of the global hegemon. And the events there are far from the usual picture of a healthy political competition and mutually beneficial cooperation in the framework of coordinated state machines.
There is a common disorder
And the reason for it is the personality of the President of the United States Donald trump. The threat that this disorder began in anticipation of a possible and, according to many analysts, and the inevitable global political crisis. And the main actors in this crisis, except the United States, are Russia, as the main subject of international tension (here the question of Ukraine, and Syria, and now in Georgia, although the latter remains out of sight of the international community), and the European Union, which is the main ally of the United States, and the other has a certain level of economic cooperation with Moscow.
Naturally, any global outrage one way or another will affect Azerbaijan. Moreover, we border both with Russia and with Iran, who is also an active participant in the geopolitical game unfolding primarily in our wide geographic region. And therefore, it is necessary to understand what is happening, and what all of this means for Azerbaijan…
Let’s start with the fact that the mentioned disorder in Washington found in the last days very interesting shape. Initially, it was clear that Trump will be very tight in its relations with the legislature, though controlled by his party members. However, the lack of necessary for such an important post, political experience has an effect on the relationship of the tramp with his own administration. If the national security Advisor, Michael Flynn was forced to resign after only some three weeks after his appointment, because of the scandal in connection with the appeared information about the discussion of anti-Russian sanctions, Russian Ambassador to the US Sergey Kislyak, the press Secretary of the White house Sean Spicer himself on 21 July during a briefing resigned, expressing their protest against Donald Trump, in connection with the appointment of financier Anthony of Scaramucci for the position of Director of the White house public relations.
At the end of last week appeared the message about the apparent dissatisfaction with trump as its attorney General Jeff Sissom, who in March of 2017 officially recused himself from the investigation of any cases related to charges of Russia meddling in American elections. It is for this in a recent interview, the American President is extremely sharply reprimanded and Roman sessions, giving him to understand that he expects his resignation. Literally trump said that if I knew that sessions is not going to do anything in this respect, he would not appoint him to such a high position. A pretty clear hint.
The collapse of the team
And yesterday we began to receive the attention that the U.S. Secretary Rex Tillerson such open criticism of its own appointee from the trump seemed the height of unprofessionalism. As reported to the authoritative us news channel CNN, citing reliable sources, such frustration has led to the fact that Tillerson is seriously considering his resignation from the post of foreign Minister. And although the press service of the state Department denies this information, the smoke without fire does not happen…
Trump has always tried to position itself as a professional and successful Manager, to somehow make excuses for the lack of political experience. However, it turned out that the Manager is not the best. He always boasted about his ability to find the right people, but came into the White house was not able to create an effective team. And therefore, not only in Congress but in the Executive branch itself, which is formally subordinate to the President, the trump position was not as strong as expected.
It is clear that the non-systemic politician and politics is not particularly involved, not a priori to have their own team, and forced to rely on experienced professionals with at least some managerial experience. And professionals, especially in the United States, quite independent and have our own opinions on the range of issues charged to them. Especially because, once again, trump never had relevant experience. Even his business, he has always built more on a whim than based on long-term deliberate strategy. No wonder he was four times declared itself bankrupt! The problem is that the US President can’t declare bankruptcy and walk away from responsibility, and before contemporaries, before history.
And all of this very difficult situation imposed on the growing tension in relations with Russia. Growing despite, and maybe because, the last trump meeting with President Vladimir Putin at the summit “Big twenty” in Hamburg. Yes, the meeting was held in a cordial atmosphere, and had reached some agreements. We already wrote about the fact that it is too early to judge the effectiveness of any agreements reached, given the specificity of the American system of checks and balances. And then came the time of the Congress of the United States to give your answer. And he gave it in the form of a draft of a new package enough of harsh sanctions against Russia. Democratic Senator Ben Cardin said quite eloquently: “Almost a unified Congress sends to President Putin a clear message on behalf of the American people and our allies. And we need a President trump to help deliver this message.”
It should be noted that the proposed bill, which already passed the House of representatives, concerns not only Russia, but also Iran and North Korea. Here’s an interesting company. Thus, with respect to Russia, the bill provides for tightening existing sanctions imposed by the us authorities against several major sectors of the Russian economy after the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of armed conflict in the Donbass, as well as possible sanctions for Russia’s intervention in the American election campaign.
Although the bill tightens sanctions against Russia, one of the major changes relate to the powers of the President of the United States, which means they have serious mistrust of the President by the American legislators. In the case of final passage of the bill, trump will not be able to unilaterally, without congressional approval, weaken or lift the sanctions against Russia or “significantly change” the principles of foreign policy.
A new war
The bill will be considered in Congress soon, and will be fairly serious blow to U.S. relations with Russia. In fact, it is a Declaration of a new cold war. Thus, despite the relatively recent friendly rhetoric toward Moscow, trump, apparently, will not be able to use its veto.
The opponents to trump, and forced many of his supporters — the Republicans believe his recent words on the need to establish relations with Russia striking expression of his naivete at best, or incompetence in matters of foreign policy, which is also not in his favor, but, at least, cannot be the pretext for impeachment.
But the most radical view on this is expressed in the conviction of many Americans that this whole game with Putin is nothing but a cynical cover-up of the Mercantile and treacherous relations with the Russian government and the oligarchic circles. Naturally, in this situation, any action trump aimed at the easing of sanctions against Moscow, or even to prevent them from tightening, can be regarded by his opponents as evidence of his guilt. Even soft rhetoric against the Kremlin will be grist to the mill of those who yearn for the expulsion of trump from the oval office.
That is why the new press Secretary of the White house Sarah Sanders stated that the President of the United States Donald trump supports draft of new sanctions against Russia and Iran. “The administration supports the rigidity in relation to Russia and the imposition of these sanctions, in particular,” she said in an interview with the American TV channel ABC News. According to her, the administration, trump will continue to work with the house of representatives and the Senate of the U.S. Congress, “to enact these stringent sanctions against Russia, while the situation in Ukraine is not normal”.
In his article about the possibility of impeachment trump, we wrote that Republicans will try to use fallen a chance to provide more pressure on the tramp and force him to cooperate, or rather to the unquestioning execution of all directives of the party, and compliance by the Republican leadership. It is from Republican votes determine the fate of trump as President, and he undoubtedly understands, despite the lack of political experience. Given the difficult situation in the Executive branch, he’s in no position to exacerbate already difficult relations with Capitol hill.
And because this behavior is trump after the words about an “amazing” meeting with Putin, should not cause much confusion. As trump does not decide with his team, he also can not determine its foreign policy course.
Still, the world expert community has been focused on the topic, what is the foreign policy doctrine of Donald trump. Six months have passed since the inauguration, but a clear answer to this question is to fail. “America first,” the fight against ISIL (banned in Russia organization — approx. ed.) and economic nationalism — these are the slogans with which trump went to the polls, and which primarily was addressed to the domestic audience. Naturally, those aspects of his foreign policy, if any, which may harm the interests of the United States are quietly, but consistently torpedoed by the political establishment.
It is the system of checks and balances is the mechanism that holds today, the United States from making fatal mistakes in the international arena. The problem is that the main spokesman of interests of the country on the world stage continues to be the head of state, and his reputation on a global scale were initially tarnished, and the actions of trump as President is not only not improved the situation, but on the contrary has further reduced his prestige, both abroad and inside the country.
In this whole situation, a big problem for Russia, and the trump (especially if the suspicions of his opponents in the ties with the Kremlin will be made on the evidence base), is a rare unanimity of Democrats and Republicans in his negative attitude towards Moscow and its foreign policy. In this regard, the White house and the state Department is very limited space for maneuvering. In fact, it simply does not. The American political establishment wants the punishment of Russia, which was reflected in the prepared draft tough sanctions.
During the election campaign of 2016, we have repeatedly written about the fact that trump is an outsider and a declared opponent of the political establishment in Washington. And at the same time, we pointed out that he will still have to work with this establishment to play by long established rules. Time puts everything in its place.
Inauguration day and still Trump was not given a minute to breathe freely and to somehow get closer to fulfilling those, to be Frank, chimerical promises given simple townsfolk. For example, several times he “threatened” to Obamacare, but was not able so far to reform the U.S. health care system. A few days after taking office, trump said, I didn’t think it would be so difficult. But more and more difficult. There is no doubt that the sphere of business and politics radically different from each other. Yes, in modern developed countries of the West, business and politics are very closely interact, but this interaction is most often limited to the influence of these fields on each other. But policy making is still the professional politicians, and business businessmen. Not every business will be able to become a real professional politician and not every politician can succeed in business. There are exceptions, for example, a former mayor of new York and one of the richest businessmen in the world, Michael Bloomberg. But trump is not Bloomberg. We have already mentioned about his bankruptcies. And in this situation he is left with no choice but to follow in the Wake of the unfolding events.
As for the impact of sanctions on Russia, here’s a much more important economic indicators for the Russian political elite would question the impact these sanctions will have on them, i.e. on members of Putin’s entourage. After all, this new package provides the sanctions against the oligarchs close to Putin. According to the document, the U.S. Treasury will be required to prepare a report on all Russian “oligarchs” and “the companies” on their “proximity” to the power! With a view to further the introduction against them of personal sanctions.
In previous articles we have already said that Putin’s circle has long been smoldering some dissatisfaction with the stalemate in relations with the US. With all that America is the Kremlin’s propagandists chose as the main scapegoat for all the test problems of Russia, the political elite of the country continues to nurture tender feelings for this overseas country. No wonder numerous offspring of Russian officials receive education, do business, and just live in the United States. That is why the administration trump pinned such great hopes for improving bilateral relations. Now those hopes are melting at an alarming rate. In response to the sanctions the Russian leadership will grow the political action of supporters even more robust and aggressive foreign policy.
Game patriotism or spiritual crypts
Western experts on this issue believe that the conventional wisdom about the omnipotence of Putin on the Russian political scene is exaggerated. Putin still has to reckon with the opinion of their quite diverse and colorful in their views of the environment. From its part I want to add that the game of the Kremlin in patriotism and the so-called “spiritual bonds” led to the formation of the majority of the population of this way of thinking, in which the Russians today are in a very perplexed condition. The old Christian commandment to turn the other cheek now in fashion in Russia. Creating from America an enemy and introducing into the minds of citizens the idea of a special mission of Russia, now it is difficult to explain the lack of response to Washington’s actions.
And the weakness in Russia is not honored. As the saying goes, weakness is an invitation to aggression. No matter in foreign or domestic policy. Putin and his entourage have maneuvered themselves into a corner, the output of which can only be a more aggressive foreign policy. And she, in turn, can lead to even greater isolation of Russia. Otherwise the course of events, if Putin goes down, it can actually cost him his presidency.
Response for Putin
Thus, if we talking only about the possibility of impeachment trump, now at stake and the Putin presidency. But if possible impeachment trump will be even painful for US, but still a technical issue (the new President of the Penny, most likely, will put everything in its place), the potential departure of Putin is fraught with very serious consequences for the entire post-Soviet space.
The only question is, will Putin on easing foreign policy to avoid sanctions and the deteriorating economic situation of the country, leaving his successor the liberal-minded policy, or, conversely, begin to tighten the nuts in domestic politics and to pursue a very aggressive foreign policy including military action in the already smoldering hot spots of the region.
The room for maneuver here is not great, but have the potential to provoke a global confrontation. This is the Donbass and Transnistria, and the Russian-speaking population of the Baltic States, which may suddenly muster, and it’s creeping bordersize in Georgia, which directly affects the interests of our country. Finally, it is Syria, where Russia also involved in a number of countries in the world. Only time will tell which way Putin will go. We just have to closely follow unfolding events, hope for the best and prepare for the worst…