Russia is likely to build in coming years, and large surface combat ships, while corvettes and frigates with a large displacement are already in the process of construction. However, Moscow is unlikely to spend large sums of money to build massive new ships, such as destroyers of the class “leader” with the tonnage of 14 thousand tons or an aircraft carrier “Storm” with a displacement of 100 thousand tons. Instead, Russia is likely to get larger size versions of already existing projects warships.
“Russian corvettes and frigates, seem to be larger, and this will be done in order to place on Board the larger and more arsenals of weapons systems” — said in his personal blog, researcher of the Center for naval analysis (Center for Naval Analysis) Michael Coffman (Michael Kofman).
“The General direction is the creation of a more heavy corvettes and frigates, modification of existing projects, as well as the development of some of the more “heavy” versions”, — he said in his blog.
In fact, the ships of class “Leader” is unlikely to ever be built. Most likely, Moscow will get larger and more cost-effective ships, which will be based on frigates of the project 22350 “Admiral Gorshkov”. The ships of the new project “Super-pots”, apparently, will have a displacement of 8 thousand tons and its dimensions correspond to the normal destroyers.
“The lack of gas turbines from Ukraine stopped the process of building two frigates of the class “pots” and created the conditions for completion of this project to the level of “Super-pots”. Apparently, 2 — 4 frigates of the class “pots” of this series, then the ship displacement which will, at least, 1 thousand tons more”.
“Change project “pots” was the question related to plans for the purchase of ships for the Russian Navy. The project of creating the ships of the class “Super-pots” is becoming more real and, perhaps, their displacement will be 7 — 8 thousand tons”, — said Kofman.
New ships of class “Super-pots” with a displacement of 8 thousand tons will be larger than most analogues, including such as the Franco-Italian frigates of the FREMM class (6.7 thousand tons) or Spanish frigates type F100 Alvaro de Bazan (6.4 thousand tons), and thus they are more likely to correspond to the category of destroyers. In fact, the new Russian ships will be comparable with the size point of view, if not from the point of view of possibilities with the Australian Hobart class frigates (7 thousand tons), or with the British destroyer class, Type 45 (8.5 thousand tons).
“It will greatly extend the capabilities of the current draft of the ships of the class “pots”, and then the question arises — and whether, of Russia, in fact, the new destroyer?”
“Implemented currently, the state program of armaments (GPV) 2018 — 2025, apparently, does not provide for the creation of a single class destroyer “Leader”, but it might have the funds for the construction of several ships of the class “Super-pots”, which can be considered as a cheaper, more practical and less redundant platforms. However, they possess considerable power (if you get the air defense system),” notes Coffman.
Other analysts, including Gorenburg Dmitry (Dmitry Gorenburg) from the Center for Russian and Eurasian studies named Katherine Davis (Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies) at Harvard University, also agrees that the destroyers of the class “Leader” may never be built. “Destroyer class “leader” is a monster with a displacement of 14 thousand tons with a nuclear power plant, construction of which was originally scheduled for 2019″.
“I highly doubt that the construction of destroyers class “Leader” will begin in this decade, and it is possible that they never will be built, given their high price and the limited priority that the Navy will receive in the new State armaments program, which is expected to be adopted later this year”, — said Gorenburg.
In addition to the ultra-long the frigates/destroyers on the basis of ships of class “Gorshkov” Russian will probably focus on the corvettes larger size.
“Currently developing a new “heavy Corvette” with a displacement of more than 2 thousand tons (project 23800). It is not excluded that its displacement will be even 3,5 — 4 thousand tons.”
“Perhaps this is a consequence of the General disappointment in the effectiveness and characteristics of the corvettes of the “guarding” (project 20380), which began with the displacement 2.2 thousand tons”, — said Kofman.
In Russia there is a debate about whether the Russian Navy in the additional amount of surface combat ships that operate in coastal waters, but able also to act in the open ocean (green water surface combatants). If Kofman is right, the Russians tend to build larger ships.
“There is ongoing debate about whether the additional number of ships with a displacement of 2 thousand tons, and although the experience of development projects in the early to mid 2000 years, perhaps suggests that this is not necessary, the Russian shipyards, however, have to build something”, — said Kofman in his blog.
“So the Russians are likely to build more corvettes just for these shipyards have worked,” he added.
In General, the Russian Navy will continue to grow and modernize at a moderate pace. Moscow is unlikely to soon begin work on such a fantastic project as “Leader”. Modern Russia is not the Soviet Union, and it just doesn’t have the resources that existed during the cold war. Therefore, the modernization of the Russian Navy will be more moderate than it was before the collapse of the Soviet Union.