Primenenie sanctions on five Russian banks with the state capital seems to be more acceptable for Ukraine and its budget than immediate nationalization or liquidation of these banks. This opinion was expressed by a financial analyst Says the ICU group Mykhailo Demkiv.
“The decision to ban the outflow of capital hits the interests of the Russian Federation as the country-investor. In the case of nationalization of banks on the Ukrainian budget would lay the cost of increasing their capital, because not all of these five banks are fully capitalized. At the closing of these banks due to the recognition of insolvency, the settlement of accounts with depositors also had to compensate for from another public source, DIF” – explained demo.
Estimated at ICU, total loans from parent structures the banks with Russian state capital now stands at over 1.3 billion dollars. The ban on the payment of interest on these loans would deprive Russian banks about $ 90 million a year, podchitali analysts.
“After the introduction of sanctions in force, these amounts will actually turn into the capital of the corresponding banks. Perhaps, during the year, the shareholders of the banks convert the funds in Bank stocks. This measure is not contrary to the sanctions and improve the capitalization of financial institutions”, – said demo.
The expert notes that there will be a statistical increase in foreign direct investment from Russia in the Ukrainian financial sector. “But again, this growth, as well as at the end of 2016, will be on paper,” said demo.
“The most likely scenario, in which Russian shareholders will be able to get out of the Ukrainian business and possible return of “frozen” money is the sale of subsidiary banks to third investors. In this case the buyer will be easier to find at small banks – PJSC “Vs Bank” or “BM Bank”, which is not much indebted-Dodgers, like the big banks. Small banks may be of interest primarily to investors who want to enter the market and have not only the license but also a small functioning network of branches. Exit strategy of the market of large banks may be tightening balances decrease due to gradual repayment of loans,” – rascojet specialist.
We will remind, today the banks with Russian state capital are among the worst in the share of problem loans (4th and 5th category of quality according to the methodology of the NBU).
Experts believe that in the case of Russian shareholders from business debts of borrowers will continue to seek new shareholders of banks.
We will remind, on March 15, the national Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has proposed to prohibit banks with Russian state capital to withdraw money outside the country. Today , President Petro Poroshenko has put these sanctions into effect.
Under the sanctions were Sberbank, Ukreximbank, VTB Bank and BM VS Bank. The sanctions imply a ban on any operations in favor of the parent banks, including interbank loans, deposits, purchase of securities, prohibition of dividend payments and other operations.
The reason for this decision was the agreement to serve the customers with the unrecognized by the international community and Ukraine “passports” so-called “DNR” and “LNR”.