The upcoming visit of US President Donald trump in Poland is really important. He will visit Warsaw on 6 July, and it will be his first stop in Europe, before the G20 summit in Hamburg. There trump will hold talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin, after meeting him for the first time since coming to the White house.
In Poland, the trump will participate in the summit of the initiative “Three seas”. The goal of the initiative is the modernization and expansion of energy and trade relations between the twelve countries bordering the Baltic, Adriatic and Black seas. The holding of such a summit was, of course, makes sense: all the participating countries are too slow to establish transport and energy links, not least because of the lack of political will and unity.
However, the success of this initiative, it is very difficult to imagine without significant funding from the EU. Unless it will interfere China, which is becoming an important investor in the region. This development is unlikely to suit trump. Chinese investments in some extent replace these countries dependence on Russian energy. Hence, a broader value of trump’s visit to Poland.
The Polish leaders and (some) other members of the initiative “Three seas”, will confirm that Russia has destabilized parts of Eastern Europe, annexing the Crimea and the occupied part of Eastern Ukraine in 2014. These steps fundamentally undermined European security architecture after 1989.
The reaction of NATO was strengthening the defence of the Baltic States and Poland, and the United States play a leading role. It is expected that when this trump America’s role will not change. “President trump has demonstrated a commitment to U.S. alliances, because of strong unions further reinforce American security and American interests,” said Herbert McMaster, national security Advisor of the United States, June 29, during a briefing at the White house.
Trump’s visit to Poland on the eve of his meeting with Putin is a chance for leaders of the region to unite and to explain how Russia is spreading disinformation, supports ultra-right movement and makes every effort to further weaken the countries of the Western Balkans. In short, this is an opportunity to explain to Trump what is actually happening in Europe.
The problem is that Poland recently, a number of preconceptions about the EU. Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of the ruling party “law and justice” said in a recent interview that he wants to return sovereignty and authority from Brussels to Warsaw. Just a few months ago Poland was a large company of eurosceptic and populist movements in Europe. But the elections in the Netherlands and especially in France, combined with the catastrophic mess which Britain shouldered by voting for withdrawal from the EU, has weakened the position of Poland.
For its part, the European Union finally is gaining more and more confidence in the future, after the President of France Emmanuel macron took the role of a new leader, guide Europe forward. In this context, the determination of the party “law and justice” to limit the powers of independent institutions like the constitutional court, the media and the judicial system, strengthen the isolation of Warsaw in the EU. The same actions cultivate intolerance of the EU to Poland. Warsaw still believes that it can ignore the rule of law, taking the help of the EU funds played an important role in the modernization of infrastructure of Poland and attracting investment. In Paris and Berlin there is a growing conviction that Poland can not sit on two chairs simultaneously.
Kaczynski has not paid as much attention to criticism from other EU governments. The nationalist conservative government of Poland is obsessed with the desire to take revenge on the liberals of the movement “Solidarity”, which in 1989 paved the way for a peaceful transition from one-party Communist rule to democracy. The Polish government does not get tired to criticize the EU and to question the values of the EU, including fundamental human rights, and the policy of the Union towards refugees. With all this, the Polish leaders are now able to show their colleagues from the EU that trump’s visit to Warsaw proves that Poland is not isolated. The government so badly wants to turn this visit into a big festival that even going to bring in the crowd from the province.
However, the future of Poland is in the EU, while the United States is the guarantor of the security of Warsaw. The Polish economy, investment and trade are inextricably linked with the European Union. Any belief that the USA can become a major economic or political partner of the country fiction.
However, we cannot forget about the energy problem. If there’s a theme uniting Kaczynski and trump, that is their common position against the pipeline “Nord stream -2”, which is owned by Russian Gazprom and supported by a consortium of European companies led by Germany. Washington has called on Berlin to abandon the project, not only because it prolongs the dependence of Europe and Germany on Russian gas, but mainly because the United States wants to export more gas to Europe.
Poland had started to import American LNG. We can not exclude the aspirations of Warsaw to become the hub of American gas. Kaczynski will support trump, criticizing the “Nord stream-2” and Germany. The last time this is not a difficult task for the Polish government. The question is whether trump wants to engage in another battle with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, host the G20 summit this year?
