Russia is preparing the second phase of the offensive against Ukraine, the timing is already known — Alexey arestovich

The first part of the interview is available here: Ukrainians fight better than the Russians, since the beginning of the year we have at least seven wins — Alexey arestovich

— Tell us what the mood of the population in the frontline in relation to our units.

They are all very different. There are people who openly hate them, you can see them. But negativity is not a lot. In my estimation — I really spent a lot of time in the frontal area, I saw people — 15-20% acutely not love us. This is from the districts varies, with very clear geographic divide there.

— Where not in love anymore?

— Closer to the Russian border, for example, from Svatove and more — there are more Pro-Russian sentiment. Is 15-20% a very Pro-Ukrainian. There are medium — mass, which is still, whose power, but would rather the war ended and normal economic situation. But superficially, visually, it is very Pro-Ukrainian: there urns are painted and stay painted pillars painted. Someone had tried, the same volunteers or local people. Pro-Ukrainian people in the Donbas is much more active than in any part of Ukraine. They say there are no Bandera worse than Luhansk and Donetsk. They updated the live environment, they have to actually fight, unlike the relaxed patriots in Lviv or Kiev, for example. This is the public, which is alertnum condition (condition of maximum readiness for action, “Apostrophe”), have a continuous Maidan lasts, they keep in readiness, they proactively interact with and look much more patriots than the public living closer to the areas where there is no war.

— Probably, You know, what the mood in the occupied territories?

I was in the Village of Lugansk, there are 10 thousand people cross the bridge every day. I wormed into the crowd at this point and 2-3 hours listening to what they say. There about the same, there is a 15-20% strongly Pro-Russian and hate “dill”, 15-20% much for us, they are from the other side came and not shy to say that they are for Ukraine, and there are plenty who don’t care: “Give pensions, salaries, and stop shooting”.

— Why the residents who are Pro-Ukrainian, live in the occupied territories?

— Because, well, you passed the bridge — and where will you live, where you spend the night? Understand that they have a flat there, its. Seniors do well — they get two pensions and I feel great. And the majority of those who stayed there — elderly people, after all. Youth there posmeyalas, there was very little. A retired heavy and physically, because after 50 years to relocate is very expensive. And economically, they themselves feel good, get two pensions.

But there is an interesting moment: they stopped talking, “if APU will go to Lugansk,” they say, “when the APU will go to Lugansk”. That is, they have in the speech is sounded.

— That is hope?

— They don’t hope, it was a figure of speech. They do not put much emphasis on this, and speak already as about the come true fact. And I was there one lady asked: “And how long have you had this change happened?” She’s a teacher with her to talk. She says: “Yes, that’s imperceptible once, 2-3 months ago we started to say “when.” Even separable”.

— And what is that? Still saw it — a road to nowhere?

They see what’s going on — it really is a road to nowhere, what you need to live in a situation of certainty. And this certainty Russia it does not, but only we can provide. There they have no options. Diplomas that kids get, no one recognizes, except for Russia.

— Passport of the same.

— Yes, passports. And the further this road goes, the more it is hopeless. It becomes a gray area that does not exist for the international community.

They received a certificate and where to go, what to do? Of course, they may arrive in Ukraine, they are given the opportunity, but it’s all so confusing. And if the elderly understand that you’ll be dead soon anyway, roughly speaking, looking at their grandchildren and children, they realize that that road is overgrown dead end. And against the background of such things as bezviz, for example, when Ukraine has lifted the iron curtain on the Western border and set on the East, they already all want to be here and not there. Because it’s the main line that went into a bright future, but it is a place that leads to completely dirty a standstill.

And, besides, there are a lot of nuances: do not operate the enterprise. Brewing technological disaster. And George Tooke, and not only is it right when talking about the prospects of technological disaster. They see where it all goes. There are so many people with an engineering mindset, they are able to predict, understand that brewing technological disaster, associated with the outpouring of chemicals, displacement of soil, flooding of mines and other extremely unpleasant things. And you need to have someone doing it. Russia is not engaged. The current “leadership” LNR, DND this will never do. So, what are their options remain? Method exceptions: to go back to the Ukraine and restored order with the assistance of the international community. They all understand it. Soon there physically cannot be live if the situation does not change.

But the option to return these territories is also not clear.

— In returning, in fact, clear. You just need to create opportunities for him. Can military means to capture, can be combined by, you can put Russia in the conditions when it withdraws its troops from the Donbas on their own. For this to emerge three frames. First — Russia itself must agree to return (withdrawal of troops from the Donbas — “Apostrophe”) in the amount of reasons or, shall we say, not be able to impede the return. The second option should be a situation in Ukraine from socio-political to the military — when we’re ready to pick up. And, third, when in the LC and the DNI the situation is ripe for a fence when one is in a bowl in our favor, tend, people already understand that is not so. In my estimation, to ripen the situation for at least another year and a half. If some “black Swan” will arrive and radical something will not change. It is a question of conditions rather than actions. Must be certain conditions. If right now to thrash through military means, it is very difficult, because to establish superiority, even local is possible, but would be big losses on our part. And yet there are so many unknowns, that the military do not plan to. The military don’t do anything, yet 85% guarantee of the results. And now this warranty is 50: 50, not enough reasons to go on the offensive.

— And You do not exclude that the active offensive on the part of Russia, too, perhaps?

I don’t believe in this scenario. I was screaming for the first two years, because it was necessary to shake up society, who slept and did not understand that war. But, in my opinion, Russia never seriously considered the option of a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine. There to consider, thank God, know and understand that not pull. Soviet Union to liberate the Ukraine, has created four Ukrainian fronts a total population of 6 million people. This whole Russian military machine, the army, if all they collect, to skin, squeeze — 330 thousand people in all. And they need to protect Russia from Kaliningrad to the Kuril Islands. Russia also a little bit more of Ukraine. Where they take troops? They can’t generate the necessary number of people. In the peaks, they all can gather for 2-3 months, otherwise it will be a radical change in the troubled regions — in Central Asia, the Caucasus, the far East, in Belarus, the same — if there remove Russian troops. If they gather all the corners will be scratched, and will appeal to cooks and clerks, they can up to 100 thousand to create a group. And we have 400 thousand mobilized security forces now.

— And if such advance will be, what direction are the most important to save?

— Understand the rule of three operates for the Russians. To advance, they must have: a relevant international situation, internal situation in Russia, the internal situation in Ukraine.

— What was the international situation when the Donbas war has started?

— What was that? They (the Russian authorities — “the Apostrophe”) forgave the Crimea — take, start the Donbass. In Ukraine has not been recognized by the President, was acting Turchynov, was not a legitimate government, which would be recognized by the international community. And then there was the big question, whether to recognize the selected President, given that did not vote in the Crimea and Eastern regions.

— But we could expect more decisive reaction of the West to the annexation of Crimea?

We told you they react the brakes. Here in Africa the Hutu and Tutsi slaughtered each other for three years in a row, killed 3 million people, scored them hoes, stabbed with a machete. The West reacted strongly to this? You need to understand the rules: any social system is a very inert, the reaction rate for 2-3 years. Now in its fourth year of conflict, the West is finally more or less decided on its strategy towards Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, Russia does not have now the most important foreign — policy conditions for the deployment of full-scale aggression. Now the ratio of the parties ‘ interests and positions is that any attempt to pull Russian troops here will cause what? There will be immediate reaction of the West will be reinforced economic sanctions. Most likely, we’re armed because it is the red line, in this case, the West is ready to give weapons already.

And Russia is technically not able to carry out (a full-scale offensive — “Apostrophe”). What can she do? She can cross the border near Chernigov, grab there are 50 km of our territory and become, for example, in the new trench warfare. It can move in the direction of Kharkiv, grab another 50 km of our territory, it can from the Crimea to try to go through the isthmus and capture 50 km. During these 150 km in three places, she will receive this amount of sanctions that any normal sane person (and in Russia there are any) or just knowing how to count their own interests, the same cooperative “Lake”, will not do it. Why? That is, they have no foreign policy framework. They problematisation the political frame, there Bulk-“perennially” baby protests to cities and so on. To start an external war, when your house is a mess — is a threat to independence that is afraid of the Russian leadership. This is a problem. And, third, they have no conditions in Ukraine, because as soon as they start the attack, what the reaction would be in Ukraine? 200 thousand men pohvatali weapons and go kill them. Immediately. They in Chechnya have lost 14 thousand people during the second Chechen campaign. And Chechnya — half of the Kiev region in size. Now imagine them on the territory of eight regions will actively kill. What will happen to them? Them the end will be. They understand that perfectly.

And, moreover, they are the same in the spring of 2014, when we virtually had no army, has not gone because, despite all their propaganda, they figured out that even then there will be resistance with which they cannot cope, and the reaction of the West will with which they cannot cope. What more can I say now, three years later, when we have 400 thousand mobilized security forces and 200 thousand reserve. And 200 thousand more men who never go to fight in the ATO, but if it is a full-scale Russian invasion. Going to be a partisan, to fight, to kill, join the army and so on. This goal impossible.

Here, for example, to take Belarus… Why do they want gently to occupy Belarus (during the exercises “West-2017” — the “Apostrophe”) under these conditions? Because this change of foreign policy path, as time. They will create an assault force — would be a direct threat to the security of Poland and the Czech Republic, the countries of Central Europe and the Baltic States that are already members of NATO and the EU. And they put forward such a proposal — let’s change the security of the Ukraine for their own safety.

— What is the exchange?

Yes, offer exchange. Like “Think about your fate, we — the wild Russian people, we could light out, and no the US will not protect you. We occupy faster than the Americans will have time to make a decision. Give us Ukraine, refuse to support or partially refuse support. Or, fuck it, let’s negotiate, but on our terms”.

Plus the combination of the elements of hybrid warfare, information-psychological large-scale operations against Ukraine will be announced. When I tried to read the tape Facebook in the ATO, I have hair on my legs stand on end was because here it is not visible, and there, in the field, when the senses clear and simple, the consciousness is cleared, and you see that 90% of the feed is terrible “zrada”. When reading the tape, apparently not “zradu,” and only openly separsky statements that are at once Patriotic part of the tape begins to bomb. And so, if you read — continuous “zrada” heavily black “zrada” fills all.

She has her reasons. But, let’s say the man knocked over the Cup of coffee on white pants. From this we can make a small event, and you can make a great event. The problem is not that there is an inverted Cup — it is, and that this is a great event, the pumping goes. And you can see that is a massive campaign. Add cyber-attacks, the killing of officers. And we must admit that Russia is the first phase of the hybrid attack (and in a hybrid offensive military means are only a small part, fifth part) played in the years 2014-2016, were now come to a new phase, relatively 2017-2019, which will be more ambitious than the previous one. Here we think that we have almost won the war, stabilized the front so it is not so. This fall will begin a new phase hybrid attack of Russia to Ukraine, and it will be stronger than the previous one.

— A military offensive?

— It will be military means. For example, the military grouping in Belarus is the creation of a military threat to us in the North, which we, frankly, not a lot to stop.

— And You said that the unstable political situation inside Russia is now a priority for them.

— No, they have a lot of priorities and they work on all three frames. They are like normal planners carry out actions to change the external situation, the steps to change the situation in Russia is different from giving powers of Regardie to shoot into a crowd with women and children and to work with the leaders of the opposition — that Maltsev (Russian politician Vyacheslav Maltsev — “Apostrophe”) was forced to leave Russia. And, third, they work in Ukraine. That is, all three part of the work is going.

In Ukraine, too, is working on all three frameworks, but limited, efforts by individual enthusiasts and groups in the framework of a more open and not such a totalitarian society as in Russia, when even the President, the Supreme commander of a country at war, can not direct his decree to achieve something, because what starts? “Zrada Sredna”. The question of a ban of social networking. It’s the actions that needed to be done on the first day of the beginning of the conflict, and, in fact, before the start of the conflict. And 13 million people in Ukraine, beat the bell, petition writing, and yelling “let me”.

Now these movements have subsided.

You won’t beat. This once again shows that it is necessary and possible to do. Nevertheless, we remember what happened.

So Russia is very clearly works, they know what you want in all three frames. While we are limited. We have volunteers in all: the volunteers at the front, the volunteers on the information front. This is all done on the enthusiasm, and where Minstets that he navoyevat? But the individual volunteers, who, thank God, enough on the information front, and the individual responsible journalists and publications somehow their struggles are.

And, in fact, Ukraine to win to our calves wolf theirs to eat, that you need? Not just to begin normal operation, all three frames, and we need to stay ahead to work actively. And considering that we have even less resources than they have, then you need to work much more efficiently and better.

We keep a lot of things: the idea, the ability of self-organization, openness of society, of the European tradition. But you know when you need to work the brain 100 Russian citizens, but work Ostankino, the FSB, the Kremlin and so on — that is one option. And when “Apostrophe” with Arestovich recorded a video even received 200 thousand views something completely different layout. If we were given the tools that they have, we would have already won the campaign. But we don’t have these tools. This is the reality with which we work. But how else?

Politicians can’t act in our society effectively, because society doesn’t want to believe that it fell asleep in Europe and woke up in Israel — that we have a war. You could hate, but war is always the underlying fundamental process in any society. If society is at war, the war defines everything, always. Of course, I want to think about the economy, about bezviz, about the train Kiev-Przemysl and so forth, but, in fact, all determines the war. And while we do not understand — and no one wants to understand, according to polls, 60% of Ukrainians did not notice that the war in the country — politicians can not act proactively, even if they wanted to. They stumble upon the resistance of the masses. The story of the visa regime with Russia: “But what about the 1.5 million Ukrainians working in Russia?” The question is, what are they doing in Russia? It is an aggressor nation, it’s killing your countrymen, and any of you can hold, when her new hostages need. But they go there to work.

— Have you thought about a cyber attack. I think this is also a provocation by Russia?

— This is not a provocation, this reconnaissance, rehearsal. Will these massive attacks later on from Russia as they need them, they will just bring down the entire computer system of Ukraine, and it is absolutely stupid and 70% served by Russian software online. And here explain to this fool-the fool businessman or Manager, you do not need to use Russian software product!

— Well, they’re not yesterday started to use these programs.

— Of course. And an urgent need to take action. And they’re like, “fuck you…, we have our own economic interests, I have a family to feed, and generally hang out there.” And unless the business of the state is to provide a software product? No. The business of the state to prohibit and punish the use of.

In a recent issue of the Crimea fell out of the information agenda. Why is this happening?

— On the first page of the secret of the American textbook information-psychological warfare is written: “the Main thing — to seize the agenda.” Seized the agenda — and you can smoke a bamboo in the shade, and occasionally to correct the situation. No matter how debated topic, how well. Matter who made the topic. Ukrainian media dependent still. They are either Western newsworthy chew, or Russian. And only about 5% of its Ukrainian somehow get. And the Western media is very much prone to lifting the theme of the Crimea, except for the group of individual enthusiasts, concerned about human rights, and those politicians who are interested in the extension of the sanctions. And the Russian media just remove the theme of the Crimea and return it to the Ukraine, this is a taboo topic. Our journalists honored in the morning all the Western media reports, read the Russian media — is not the Crimea, then, and we won’t write about the Crimea. And to put the topic… That’s “Apostrophe” could now.

We need constantly the subject to pedal, not to forget about her. This is an important topic. Unlike the Donbass, Crimea is considered occupied territory with all the ensuing consequences. And you need to draw an analogy, the Crimean question should be in conjunction with the Donetsk and Lugansk to consider, in any case not to divide (the separation of these two themes — the main desire of the Kremlin), clearly recognize that the territories are occupied, and demand the release of those, and at the same time. Need to work on collecting legal material in order to condemn Russia as a state and private actors, to outweigh her social security territories, accumulate a database for crimes that they commit, because the conscription of citizens from the occupied territories for military service — it is an international crime without a Statute of limitations.

— Searches, repression…

Yeah, tons of things… of Course every fire in the area ATO is classified according to the article 258 as a terrorist act, materials are prepared, and already 1.5 million of claims will go to the Hague. But, in General, we do not modify here at inner frame we have a problem and the outside frame.

The theme of the Crimea will not removed, it is also the rule framework. It is clear that in Russia there is a consensus on non-return of Crimea, even among the opposition, see remarks Bulk or left-wing Russians. It is working with the domestic circuit. With the foreign policy circuit in relation to the Crimea all right, in fact, all civilized society (except for Nauru, which brought $ 5 million) considers Ukrainian Crimea, and Russia — the aggressor, the occupier. But it’s external. Inside there too all sorts of currents, and a lot of people among the Western politicians propose: let the Donbass Russia will return Crimea and let the leaves.

There are four frames — domestic, international, and domestic vnutriukrainskie. That’s when these four frames will be ready to return to Crimea, he’ll be back. And this requires constant effort, and this effort is more like picking the designer, and the cultivation of the garden. Not so easy to raise this tree.

— Russia itself is unlikely to ever return Crimea.

Why? Come Garry Kasparov to power — and will return in an hour.

— If it happens, it is a very long time in the future.

— Well, not now, then in 10 years, 50 years from now. That’s when Germany reunited?

— Then option? Wait?

— Not to wait, and to create the conditions. For that, again, you need to proactively play in all four frames. You need to work with the Crimeans. Crimeans activity?

— Some conducted.

— What? No. It means that one frame is not working. Second, conversation is had on the return of Crimea with the Russian opposition? No.

— What is the opposition? They stumble through one in Crimea.

— It does not matter. Whatever it was. Tatarstan need to talk with the Caucasian republics, and so on. In a long distance relationship work? There is just some kind of being to constantly pedaling theme of the Crimea, sanctions for Crimea, human rights. With Turkey we are working in the Crimea? In Turkey, 6.5 million Crimean Tatars, almost one in ten Turkish — Crimean Tatar. We say that Russia violates the Crimean Tatars, the Mejlis was banned, pursues, breaks into the mosque? In the Ukrainian society the idea is that we train will get the Crimea? The work is not conducted. If there is no work, what kind of results can we say? He’ll Mature and in the hands of us fall? This is also possible, but this requires not a year or two.

— The return possibly only time-consuming in a peaceful way?

Why? Possible and the military way, a possible combination of ways. We need to create conditions.

— Capable of Ukrainian army by military means to regain the Crimea?

— Of course, under certain conditions — able.

— And how will react the international community?

— And what can be the reaction of the international community in the case of the return of their territory, which the community has recognized the occupied? You return his. We don’t invade them.

— Not too late to return the Crimea by military means?

What do you mean too late to return by military means? During the annexation we had 6 thousand ragged soldiers. That’s when we will have 600 thousand soldiers against 60 thousand in Crimea — then you can return. With 20 thousand soldiers, we can’t return the Crimea by military means. When will the 200 thousand — it is already possible to begin to talk about it, and 2 million Ukrainian soldiers — sure you can return. Question: do we need 2 million or enough 300 thousand, for the return of the Crimea? Conditions must be created.

To return the Crimea by military means should be when the Crimean population want it back in any way, because off the water, the Russian cops beat with batons Crimeans (and those moments have already started), because there is no life, no happiness. This should be done when the Crimeans themselves say: “We want to return are in any way” when the Turks say: “Let us return, we will support you”, when the world community says, “Yes, return, fuck with him because this issue of Crimea is already here”, when the Crimean Tatars armed and ready to act against the aggressor actively, when the Ukrainian society is shouting: “Return the Crimea by military means, let’s”. Should all the frames together.

Here is the alignment of the framework, and then their reduction to a single sight — this is a policy, which need to be addressed. And since almost no one does, in the Crimea held only an international frame, by the Crimeans do not work with Russia do not work, Ukrainian society is not prepared for the return of the Crimea. The challenge at the state level — to get it back. Force or not by force — me neither cold nor hot. And no, neither cold nor hot. Likely to be a combination. For example, we can sabotage methods to make the stay of the aggressor in Crimea is very expensive for him financially expensive. Crimea to make a trap for the bear. Remember, we are talking about Putin and paw said? Here, he took the bananas and can’t get them out. Need this paw to beat.

— That is, the blockade organized by the Crimean Tatar activists have been effective?

— Of course, the tactics of a thousand cuts. Now there is the ecological situation is changing, because we the water turned off. After 10 years, life in the Crimea will be unbearable, and the way out of this situation can be only one — his return to the Ukraine. And then you can quite different to talk about Crimea. In addition, possible international solutions. For example, a joint protectorate of the Ukraine-Turkey relations over the Crimea, an international consortium, to make Crimea a demilitarized zone, recreational zone, a new technological area. There are a million solutions. You need to determine the solutions and some policies. Now Ukraine has not enough resources, including brains to work on all four framework.

Yet even in the Donbass not enough, which is already far more Mature fruit to fall into our hands, rather than the Crimea. Therefore, efforts are transferred sequentially. No one, even in a country like the United States, not strong enough to fight in eight places at once. We focused on the Donbass, now in Belarus are added, there is a serious threat, it will have to stop, create a new part, throw them to the border with Belarus. Again — work with Belarus, with the Belarusian opposition, to work with the poles, foreign policy outline to create, to work with the Ukrainians who live in Rivne, Volyn, Kyiv regions, which are adjacent to Belarus directly, and so on. The Russians occupy Belarus, in particular, in order to distract us from the Donbass and Crimea to create us a new threat in the other direction. It’s all an endless game of chess: they move — we move. A certain policy of the state is very slow, with an efficiency of 5%, is conducted. While we are on a rollicking revival of anything goes. Now seriously you need to talk, to adequately and effectively reflect the second stage of the Russian hybrid attack on Ukraine.

— And how it can reflect?

— Work on all three frames. At least maintain this framework. And we behind him for 2-3 years. And about to level up or even proactive step, speech in principle, yet is not. And you need to come. So we started to act in advance. We’re like Sparta. Ancient Sparta had no walls. The walls they were not built because they have a very few people were in the best years of 15 thousand people. Athens, their main opponent, 45 thousand exposed easily. So they constantly fought near the walls of enemy cities, to those who had trouble at home and did not think about the attack on Sparta. This is our method, we need to work very effectively with the Caucasus, Tatarstan, the Russian Far East, everywhere. And in Moscow itself cause them tremendous trouble to ensure that they served their house and did not climb to us. But we do not, because: a) know; b) not to end I want more;) I hope God and good the West; d) do not have the staff, financial and all other resources.

— Given the lack of resources, the return of the Crimea is the question of what time, in Your opinion?

— What is the forecast? The forecast is an act of information warfare. I will say that Crimea will return within five years. Do you think he will come back or not? But the act of war we did. Can fly “black Swan” — and the Crimea may come back tomorrow. Maybe not to fly — and then it will be natural processes to return from 5 to 15 years. But he guaranteed to return, this we know, train. The question is timing.