Leaders and outsiders of the race on the Champs Elysees. Presidential elections in France. The consequences for Ukraine

Presidential elections in France, which is of great importance to the strategic directions of development of this country and the future of the European Union, go to the finish line. The first round of elections on Sunday, April 23. If it does not identify a winner among the 11 registered candidates, may 7 will be held the second stage of voting. Anything can happen, but, according to opinion polls, the leaders of the race are marine Le Pen and Emmanuel macron: each about a quarter of adherents among French voters. The outsiders — Republican françois Fillon, socialist Benoit Hamon, levoradikal Jean-Luc Mélenchon.

Obviously, the French already feel some fatigue from the representatives of the traditional parties alternating in power. The debate in France suggest a paradoxical, at first glance, the idea — to the descendants of General de Gaulle with his idea of full independence of France in international politics are more like socialists than Neopolitan such leaders as françois Fillon and Nicolas Sarkozy.

The latter strongly emphasize the need to negotiate with Russia, favour the feasibility of lifting the sanctions in order not to have conflict relations with strong militarily government. It is obvious that the center-right are afraid of Moscow, and, therefore, their position felt weak, the desire to interpret international law, depending on the current benefits from the situation and avoid a hypothetical confrontation with a more powerful country. But the socialists — and the unpopular President Francois Hollande, and the candidate Benoit Amon — the emphasis on the unacceptability of violations of international law and boundaries and Express readiness to go on restrictive measures.

The socialists picked up the ideological legacy of General and believe that France, defending the foundations of international law, can and should have a position, not afraid to confront the most powerful players in the global strategic space. Therefore, if in the last years in France the President was not Hollande, and one of the centre-right, which is afraid of Russia, the Normandy format would be somehow different than it is now.

And Ukraine should not be underestimated. The results of the primaries of the center-right forces show that former French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s low popularity among the French. The leader of the primaries was former Prime Minister Francois Fillon, rolled away the ex-Prime Minister Alain Juppe in second place. In a typically Gaullist spirit Fillon in favour of France took first place in the renewal of the European Union and would facilitate the understanding of the European countries the urgency of creating a Europe that would respect the main partners, especially the US and China. In his opinion, France should be the engine of the revival of the EU.

In the program, formulating a strategy update Europe, Fillon says the safety of citizens with efficient borders, controlled immigration and an Autonomous defense; economic and financial sovereignty due to the transformation of the Euro into reserve currency; investment, innovation and research for major European projects and development of the knowledge society. With regard to immigration, Francois Fillon proposed to fix in the Constitution the principle that immigration will depend on the capacity of France to accept and integrate immigrants.

Parliament will annually set quotas for immigration and to determine the regions of the world, of which France wants to accept immigrants. Fillon is holliston, therefore, favorable to Moscow, but only to the extent that it does not threaten the interests of France. To visit the isolation of Russia is not a solution and can only further approve of Russia in its current position. According to many representatives of the French political elite, historically that France and Russia have ties in many spheres, and Russian art, especially literature, raises the Pro-Russian tropism. The corruption scandal surrounding bogus employment

Fillon of his wife and children, significantly lowered his rating and crossed presidential prospects. It is unlikely that the next President of France will be the representative of the socialists B. Amon. Despite the peculiarities of his program, over the candidate tends General the current situation in the country: there is a decline in the popularity of the socialists because of dissatisfaction with the government and the socialist President

Hollande. The rating fell to a greater extent due to the fact that he has failed to overcome unemployment, and because of the General security situation in a number of terrorist attacks in France. B. Amon proposes to introduce an unconditional basic income of EUR 750 for all adult French. It is unknown how could it happen, but it is significant that already in France became prevalent variety of social assistance programs in all areas.

In addition, Amon believes that France has not enough workers. Therefore, it is to introduce a “humanitarian visa” for refugees that would allow the migrants to legally enter the country for temporary accommodation and protection. But for many French, this idea is unacceptable in light of the recent terrorist attacks and discontent over what refugees and immigrants receive various forms of social assistance, and the usual French pay a lot of taxes. This, in particular, is one of the reasons for the growing popularity of the National front led by Le Pen, who advocates the opposite approach to immigration and migration to France.

It is unknown exactly how many adherents of the “National front” and its leader. In certain circles in France, inconvenient to announce that the vote for Le Pen, in order to avoid accusations of pandering to xenophobic and too radical, according to many French. Some French are just not recognised in sympathy with this party. Meanwhile, the popular leader of the National front, due to several factors.

First, Le Pen has modernized this movement and made it a bit more acceptable than it was in the days of her father Jean-Marie Le pen, founded the party in 1972, She worked hard to ensure anti-Semitism and homophobia inherent in the “National front”, in the past, and protectionism of French citizens and their security have become the cornerstone of the political program. For this she even went into conflict with his own father, but the reforms have added to her political supporters.

Second, in recent years the security situation in France has changed radically: after the terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015 and in nice in 2016, the atmosphere of danger and insecurity. However, before France was a long-standing problem some of its suburbs, where many citizens primarily of immigrant origin, many of them unemployed and socially disadvantaged individuals who use drugs and boozing.

In General, for ordinary citizens more important is the question of internal politics than external. When Le Pen urged to recognize the annexation of Crimea was legitimate and lift sanctions against Russia, we must understand that for most French people, Ukraine is a distant country, a poor and too corrupt. The country, which some French disparagingly called white Africa. It is necessary to consider and understand what the French will pay attention in the pre-election slogans of Le Pen, and what — not.

Marine Le Pen also was the defendant in several scandals. However, for its rating they will not have the same effects as in the case of Fillon. Has long been writing about the loan Le Pen from the Bank associated with Russia, but this fact does not apply to the French budget and direct interests of the French. More serious are accusations of misuse of funds by the European Parliament. However, again, this is not the money of the French national budget. And besides, the voters of Le Pen just support antirossiysky mood of this political force, because these facts do not alienate the followers from the leader of the party, as happened with Fillon.

In case of a victory of marine Le Pen French politics will enter into a period of turbulence. Le Pen is able to begin the process of withdrawal of France from NATO. Recall that Paris already has experience of release and return to the military committees of the Alliance. While it is impossible to predict exactly what will become of the EU if come to power, Le Pen. She may announce and hold a referendum on membership in the European Union, and after Breccia no one will undertake to predict the outcome of such a referendum: Paris is one of the founders and one of the main actors in the EU, and its output is indicated by the stability of the Union.

But at least Le Pen will take care of restoring border controls despite the Schengen agreement. However, it will not encroach on the social protection of French and will not resort to a significant reduction in running, though, no doubt, will change the policy towards immigrants — that’s what you expect from her constituents. Her statement about Russia give an idea of the common strategy on Ukraine: it is likely that Le Pen would be considered inappropriate extension of sanctions against Russia and recognizes the annexation of Crimea legitimate.

To calculate scenarios of development of events after the probable coming to power of Le Pen almost impossible. And in case of defeat it will make appropriate conclusions and will continue to reform their party, more it closer to the traditional center-right party and reducing radicalism. As a result, in subsequent years, her party could worsen and she, being in middle age, has a chance several times to participate in the presidential elections. Former economy Minister Emmanuel macron is the most possible winner of the presidential election. And after coming to power, he will not have a political party, on whose support I could count on: there are only founded in 2016, the movement “Forward,” denoted as “neither right nor left.” A staunch supporter of the strengthening of the EU Affairs expert of economy and Finance, the Makron is quite able to give a new impetus to the EU and to bring long-awaited changes in France.

The French will expect from him above all of overcoming unemployment and relieve the tax burden. That it promises in its program to achieve reduction of the tax shelter and improve the situation with the budget. His fiscal program interesting and for the right part of the electorate, and to the left. In particular, the wealthy strata of French society were annoyed by the socialists introduced a wealth tax. Therefore, the macron proposes a tax reform: he takes a middle position between the right who want to repeal the tax, and a socialist Amon, who, on the contrary, through the increase of this tax plans to Finance the total profit for all.

Undoubtedly, the French are waiting for security. And macron, realizing that due to the strengthening of terrorism in the world and the unpredictability of terrorist acts to resolve the situation alone will fail announces serious reinforcement of cooperation with European intelligence services and the police. Emmanuel macron, as President, will defend primarily the interests of France and the EU, based on respect for the legal framework. He is in favour of expanding sanctions against Russia if no progress is made in the embodiment of the Minsk peace agreements in the East of Ukraine, but at the same time and persistent negotiations with Moscow. Subject to the success of our reforms, the Makron will continue to support Ukraine.

But the endless corruption scandals in our country are unlikely to encourage him to do so: why failed to help a country that for decades mired in clan-oligarchic struggle. And besides Ukraine is not a priority sphere of national interests of France. Voters will expect from the new President of the French solution to the problems and not spending on aid to corrupt countries. And Emmanuel macron will be forced to listen to them more than any French President since he does not have the traditional support of the political party.