At the moment the leaders of the “twenty” preparing for the scheduled on 7 and 8 July meeting in Hamburg, but Donald trump stays away from everyone. Instead to lead the way in free trade, climate change and other key points in the programme of the G20, the US President was not destiny, and sitting alone with a disgruntled mien.
Trump has already plunged US into the strongest isolation on many fronts. He attacked free trade, abandoned the TRANS-Pacific partnership and promised a new era of protectionism. During the first trip to Europe in may this year, he alienated the closest democratic allies of America, having reproached them in inadequate allocation of funds for the defense and calling Germany a “very bad” because of its positive balance of foreign trade.
Some time later, the tramp came out from the Paris climate agreement, thereby opposing America most countries in the world. All these initiatives prompted the German Chancellor Angela Merkel (and she does not tend to exaggerate) to say that Europeans “must take their destiny in their own hands.”
We face not the world without the West, and the West without the US. Now that trump has made it clear that the slogan “America first” really means “Only America”, Europe can no longer rely on Washington. Trump is a businessman, not a statesman. He believes any relationship to the transaction and treats its democratic allies, as to the tenants: if they just list the rent, you can stay. If not, then it was time for the door!
Relations between the US and its European allies goes far beyond who pays how much. The magic of the Western world is how he managed to move away from the old world, with its zero-sum game, where everyone played for themselves. After too many wars Atlantic democracy understood that, to prevent bloodshed should build an international community that is based on trust, previously agreed upon rules, multilateral institutions and free trade. Members of the Atlantic community have sacrificed short-term profits in favor of long-term solidarity.
The disproportionate impact of the
Trump forgot the story or sees it in bayonets. That is why the future of the West is now in the hands of Europe. The question is whether the European Union, who already have to deal with PACSICOM own and populists, to become the center of the Western world. At the moment, neither Germany nor the EU as a whole is not ready to take on this role. Whatever it was, it is possible that a trump presidency would be such a shock to Europe that she will find the strength to fight back.
The EU will be more prepared to fill left by America trump leadership vacuum, if you will take the following steps.
First of all, the EU needs a more balanced system of decision-making. Germany has gained disproportionate influence, which hurts her the most, as it sets against her European partners. Even if the voice of Berlin will be the biggest in the EU, the number of States needs to expand and take on greater importance.
The development of collective management
Political comeback France under the patronage of Emmanuel Macron, certainly contributes to this, but in light of Breccia and left Britain with the political mess France and Germany should make a habit to negotiate with Italy, Spain and some other less important States. If the EU intends to become the leader of the West, he needs the support of all its members.
Secondly, despite the anti-European sentiments among left-wing and right-wing populists, the EU needs to expand collective leadership on the economy, foreign policy and defence. He will not be able to provide effective leadership without a more centralized and capable of active institutions.
Emerging differences with the US may encourage the Europeans to continue the Association. Progress in European defense at the European Council on 18 may are important steps in the right direction.
Third, in order to compensate for the consequences of the US withdrawal from the multilateral system, the EU should strive for a more effective partnership with other countries including non-democratic regimes. Wittingly or unwittingly, trump is undermining America’s influence and forcing Europe to turn to other allies for the formation of coalitions.
The fact that over the years the EU can achieve in the face of China is more preferable in comparison with the US partner in the fight against climate change in favour of trade liberalization is an excellent example of this.
Finally, the EU should maintain the “Atlanticist” position and continue to consider US as a privileged partner, which he would like to have on your side, even if transatlantic relations are becoming more similar to the transaction. In the end, the Atlantic community for many years prospered based on common interests and not just feelings and values. Even if trump is driven primarily short-term calculation of costs and benefits, working with the Europe often going for him a good deal.
In this perspective, Germany must increase defense spending and take measures to stimulate domestic demand, which not only would have like Trump, but also would encourage economic growth and formation jobs, which are so essential for the Eurozone.
In addition, Europeans should not forget that the era of trump, thank God, limited in time. The current leader is clearly “not fit” into a dominant political movement, what makes its management an aberration and not a signal about what will happen in the future. America will be back, and while the task of protecting the West of the fortress lies on the shoulders of the European Union.
Kupchan (Charles Kupchan) — a former adviser to Obama on European Affairs