In Ukraine has steadily strengthened the national currency. In summer the dollar for the first time this year fell below $ 26 USD. The trend towards strengthening of the national currency according to experts will last long. The website “Today” found out what the dollar is to wait for the Ukrainians in the second half of this year.
Why has strengthened the hryvnia
Summer – the period of strengthening of the hryvnia. At this time, the traditionally high prices of raw materials, in addition, farmers plant revenue and the currency strengthened. This period, said the analyst “Alpari” Maxim Parkhomenko, – the best time to buy the dollar. So, if in January of this year, $ 100 could buy 2 690 hryvnias, at the moment for the same amount of currency will have to pay about 100 UAH less.
Another factor that contributes to the strengthening of the hryvnia in summer – no need to buy energy. 85% light oil and almost half of the natural gas Ukraine imports, that is, buying in dollars. This leads to a devaluation of the hryvnia.
Yes, and the dollar at the moment, analysts say, is experiencing not the best times. Due to the political instability in the United States, talk of impeachment of the President-elect of Donald trump, and weak macroeconomic indicators, the us dollar steadily depreciates.
At the end of may, the dollar against the hryvnia was 1 to 26,35. Now one dollar, according to the official exchange rate is 26.08 USD. A few days ago the U.S. currency was sold for the hryvnia of 25.99. The trend towards the strengthening analysts predict could last until at least the end of the summer. The hryvnia has all the chances in the near future to grow for another 40-60 cents.
However, this opinion is not shared by all Ukrainian analysts. So, Concorde Capital suggest that in the near future the trend will change and the dollar can rise again. “We see that the volume of steel production the last months of fall, and prices on world markets are slightly reduced. Most likely, in the future, less than a month we will see that the hryvnia will weaken,” explains the Director of the analytical Department of the company Alexander steam.
Analysts agree that the “Golden period” of the hryvnia will soon be over. In the second half of the year will have to step up imports, to pay for foreign loans. In addition, there is a tendency to reduce the cost of the metal. This product is one of the main sources of currency for the country, along with the products of the agricultural sector.
What will happen to the dollar fall
To reach the forecast level predicted by Ministry of Finance, for 29.3 hryvnia on average for the year, the national currency should be in the second half of the year to depreciate at least up to 32 hryvnia per dollar, says analyst Natalia Milchakova. However, this prediction can be called pessimistic. For example, the Razumkov Centre forecast course in district 27 hryvnia in the second half, and Concorde Capital assume that at the end of this year the dollar will cost 28,5 hryvnia. Itself Natalia Milchakova suggests that already the fall of the dollar will fluctuate in the range 26 to 28 UAH.
“The risk may be, for example, the refusal of the International monetary Fund or other international financial institutions to provide loans to Ukraine. Another risk could be the fall in world prices for grain, metals and other export goods of Ukraine, as well as the fall in global oil prices that could adversely affect the market for foreign importers of the Ukrainian goods. However, what will be the course in the fall – really can know only the national Bank of Ukraine as hryvnia more expensive and cheaper mainly due to the policy which the national Bank conducts the foreign exchange market”, – says Natalia Milchakova.
“The risk may be, for example, the refusal of the International monetary Fund or other international financial institutions to provide loans to Ukraine”, – says Natalia Milchakova.
In comparison with the currencies of many other developing countries, the expert said that the hryvnia illiquid and of little interest to currency speculators.
Forecasts to the end of the year
Ukraine is waiting for at least three years of the fall of the hryvnia. The resolution of the budget until 2020, the Cabinet forecasts average annual exchange rate of the dollar at the end of this year is 27.8 million hryvnia. In 2018, the dollar can be bought for 27 hryvnia, in 2019 – more than 30,5 hryvnia. Thus, the national currency will fall to the level 31 of the hryvnia to the dollar in 2020.
International company Standard&Poor’s last year predicted the dollar at the level of 26.5 hryvnia to the end of 2017 and 27 hryvnia to the end of 2018.
One of the most disappointing for the Ukrainian currency forecasts made by U.S. investment firm Goldman Sachs. According to their estimates, at the end of this year the dollar will cost 32 UAH.
Note that from the value of the dollar depends on the inflation level in Ukraine. According to experts, the fourth part of the consumer basket of Ukrainians – imported goods, including energy resources. The dollar on the cost of gas and gasoline. The prices of gasoline lay in the cost of transportation of goods.
In Ukraine the dollar was “tied” prices for equipment of apartments in the secondary market, cars, etc.