Watching the circus going on around the “change the format of the confrontation between Russia in the Donbas.” Why a circus? Judge for yourself. So, on Tuesday, June 20, the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko met with US President Donald trump. What are the benefits? That on July 7-8, trump will participate in the summit of “Big twenty” in Hamburg, then there is a unique chance to promote the problem of Donbass at the highest level.
However, you need to have a plan of action and specific proposals in one of two forms:
1) a secret plan, intended to review during the meeting;
2) open concept, adopted repeatedly discussed in Ukraine and, possibly, at least in General terms, the known stakeholders in the world.
The second option, as you know, we have. So, a secret plan. And then a week before the meeting of the two presidents Secretary of the NSDC of Ukraine Oleksandr Turchynov reported about the preparation of a new format in the confrontation with Russia, which should greatly help to move the return of the occupied territories off the ground.
And here begins the circus. MPs and other experts comment on possible changes, but do so haphazardly, it becomes immediately clear that either they have no idea what is that “Mr. Fix it”, or cover up a secret plan of the President, which must be submitted to the Trump. Possible third option: there is no plan and there was not, and to offer something in the Donbass (at least new, in addition to traditional, albeit generally true, “the Russian occupier, the Crimea and the Donbass is Ukraine”), Poroshenko simply nothing.
This option is most likely for a number of reasons, the first of which — the fact of the statement Turchynov: if such a plan was, he would know about it and, I think, was silent. Well, at least I hope so. Go ahead. Something very strange Turchynov explains the change of format, saying that the use of the army in the ATO is not quite legal. Well, 3 years it does not bother anyone, and then — Hello. It is clear that the ATO was introduced in 2014 in order to be able to hold elections and to, frankly, to legitimize the status quo when the acquired power, in fact, in the blood of the dead people in Kiev. But after the election, ATO be canceled has already gone.
Under the new format will be introduced martial law? Within the country is possible only when Declaration of war. Who do we call? Russia? If desired, this could be done in 2014, but nothing good is not over, not over and now. To declare martial law in the border areas of Donbass? Why? De facto, it’s there for quite some time. To suspend the voting rights of residents of border areas, opposition to the authorities? So the Ukrainian government has alienated, or at…and, not only the Donbass, so it is unlikely something will radically change in the election scenario.
In the new format, the army would act harder and go on the offensive in the Donbass? And who can guarantee that, as in the summer of 2014, will not come “North wind”? While there is the danger of its repetition, no will not advance. It turns out that the whole incident is reminiscent of the disclosure of how the President is losing a great chance in the foreign policy game.