Donald trump and Cuba: the pause in the normalization of relations

In recent months, many asked themselves, do not trump the changes started by the Obama administration policy towards Cuba. According to the decree signed by trump last Friday, the answer will be negative. Correctly, the rejection rate Obama may lead to conflicts with allies, to open gaps for strategic adversaries such as Russia and China, and to aggravate and without that uneasy relations with Latin America. No country in the world supports the policy of blockade against Cuba, considering it illegal, immoral and counterproductive.

In addition to the demagogic statements made by us President in address Cuban exiles advocating the extension of the embargo, the current administration has continued those developments achieved by the previous command. Although trump uses Cuba as a bargaining chip. Remained in force, remittances to relatives living on the island, unlimited rides Cuban-Americans, authorization of different categories of Americans to travel to Cuba, the functioning of the U.S. Embassy in Havana and a Cuban Embassy in Washington. Cuba no longer appears in the list of countries that promote terrorism, compiled by the state Department. Still has intergovernmental agreements on the exchange of information in the field of security and law enforcement. Ceased to operate a particular migration policy towards Cubans who managed to reach the United States.

A lofty phrase that “the era of Obama’s policy towards Cuba is ended,” delivered from the mouth of trump, is, exaggerated truth, or half lie. The new “policy” trump is determined by three main directions: 1. Restrictions on individual travel to Cuba for educational purposes for American citizens, with the exception of trips Cuban-Americans that make up most of them. 2. Preconditions Cuban leaders before the talks between them and the tramp. 3. Restrictions on the access of Cuban military factories to income derived from traveling Americans. Trump is willing to do anything for the people of Cuba, but not to listen to him. As is evident from his performances in Miami, the measures taken by President Obama, has only harmed the Cuban people. Surveys conducted among Cuban-Americans in Cuba and among the American people, suggest otherwise. Obama’s policy towards Cuba approves more than 60% of U.S. citizens and Cuban-Americans. More than 90% of the Cuban population share the same point of view, according to the survey of the sociological centre of Bendixen-Amandi conducted without the permission of the Cuban authorities.

Unlimited rides Cuban-Americans and sending their remittances will not undergo any changes, such as those that occurred under the Bush administration. It is interesting that the same politicians who favor restricting the travel rights of other Americans, are hesitant to encourage their voters to the same restrictions. When trump Cuban Americans have the advantages of travel that is denied to other Americans.

Consolation for the Americans, who had the honor to be born in Cuba, will be that they will be able to continue to travel if you have a General educational license, but only as part of the group. In these conditions may decrease the number of trips, although the number of travelers visiting Cuba after January 2015, will continue to increase. Cuba, travel agencies, airlines can offer such forms of travel that will meet the new requirements, which not only will reduce the flow of tourists, but may facilitate its further growth.

The restriction of foreign exchange earnings of the Cuban defense companies — another public gesture that had little effect on the Cuban authorities. The armed forces of Cuba represent a decisive factor in the process of generational change, which will begin in 2018, even though for the first time since 1976, the President may be a civilian. Anyone who underestimated the ability of the Cubans to consolidate, was wrong.

Most probable that trump anything tangible to oppose the Cuban armed forces will not be able, but provides the authorities the opportunity to once again condemn the unacceptable American intervention and to unite the people around the power structures standing on guard of the independence of the country. Instead offer methods competent management and transparency of the government, trump will fail, trying to choose the most suitable characters among Cuban politicians.

The performance of the trump in Miami is only the beginning of a series of future statements. The transfer of presidential power in Cuba in 2018 will make obvious the weakness of the us policies in a critical situation. During the next elections in 2018 and 2020 trump will call for more stringent policies. Supporters of the trade embargo of Cuba, who took important positions in the administration of the first attempts to reduce the flow of tourists, so that later it can be politically to stop altogether.

Miami trump proclaimed the approach which puts at the forefront of concessions by the Cuban government, not the protection of American interests and values, regardless of the actions of the Cuban authorities. This is a departure from the policies of Obama, dead end road. The list of conditions for negotiations, which the President of the trump read out the current Cuban leaders and those who will take up the reins of the island in 2018, will mean failure for another five decades.