wPolityce.pl on 6 July President trump will visit Poland. What can we expect from this visit?
Romuald Sheremet’ev: I don’t want to speculate, because the forecasts can not be justified. It is important that the President of the United States to meet with forum members “Initiative of the three seas”. East-Central Europe is interested in creating a political and geopolitical cooperation in the area of Intermarum, as it was called before. It is necessary for our common security. If the US will be the momentum if they would support such an initiative, it will be of great help for the Polish efforts and will have an impact on the other participants in this project. Not all countries in East Central Europe believe that the creation of this community in the interest of all countries in our region.
It is worth remembering that some time ago wrote and spoke American Professor George Friedman (George Friedman). Founder and CEO of Stratfor, which is called “civilian CIA,” is well versed in the problems of our part of Europe. He and his company create a very serious analytical work. In one of his books, Friedman pointed out that Poland can regain the role it played in the era of the Commonwealth. Poland, which takes decisions about the fate of East Central Europe, could become an important partner of the United States. It will be of great importance for our future.
— What do you think about the forecast of George Friedman, who suggested that by 2020 Russia could disintegrate?
— Theoretically, everything is possible. Russia is very heterogeneous, particularly in ethnic and religious terms, these differences can be a potential source of crisis. When we say “Russia”, we imagine the vast space and strong in military power that threatens us and other countries. It seems to us that this country is monolithic. Enough, however, to look at the map of the Russian Federation. Within its borders there was a quasi-independent Republic and Autonomous region, and in the territory, which Moscow considers to be uniquely Russian, live in huge national groups not related to Russian. In addition, Russia is gaining strength by the Muslim population.
— It has a strong representation, in particular, in the Russian army.
— Some time ago it was said that the proportion of Muslims in the Russian armed forces exceeds 30%. Earlier this percentage was even higher, it is decreased due to the actions of the Russian authorities. This was due in particular to the fact that among the Russian soldiers and Muslims had conflicts. The Russians managed to pacify Chechnya, but challenges remain, from time to time they come back. In addition, there were separatist tendencies in Siberia. The region’s residents believe that Russia is exploiting their land. If they were able to dispose of their natural resources and sell them, for example, China or Japan, the situation in Siberia and Russia would have looked very different than today. As we can see, the factors that can lead to a split, a few. It imposed a policy of President Putin — the active service of the country and its military intervention in various conflicts.
All this is done against the background of low prices for Russian raw materials.
— So. There is an opinion that the Russian government and Putin are aware of the danger which threatened their country, and engage in external conflicts to avoid internal conflicts and the collapse of Russia. Against this background arises the question of safety including Poland. The idea that Russia is facing disintegration, sounds more and more, so the forecast of Professor Friedman may be quite real.
— Back to the topic with which we began our conversation, — visit, which is July 6 in Poland there will arrive the President of the United States. We see that there is no international isolation of Warsaw, talked about the opposition, no.
Yes. The party “law and Justice” (PiS) and its Chairman Jaroslaw Kaczynski (Jarosław Kaczyński) is from time to time to thank God for the fact that we have such opposition. The overall level of statements, actions, reactions to the initiatives of the ruling party look pathetic. Don’t know if she deserves the naming of “total opposition”, or its better to call, as someone has already suggested “hysterical opposition.” In my opinion, this is the right name. Poland has a great potential, a state that is evolving, gaining strength. We, undoubtedly, are the most important country of the region. Stories of the opposition, though Poland can be isolated in the international arena, is nonsense.