The disaster in the Ukraine. Infectious diseases and the level of developing countries in Africa

Former Ambassador to Russia and Ukraine Jaroslav Bashta warns about the “africanization” of Ukraine and the actual disintegration of the country in all senses. For the Czech Republic this can pose a threat. Also, Basta argues that in a certain respect, our country begins to resemble Ukraine, and warns against the same fate.

Parlamentní listy: Ukraine no longer occupies a Central place in geopolitical events, and the media began to write about it less. As this country is living now? They say that in some areas it is gradually sinking to the level of developing countries that the economy and infrastructure collapse, and that in these years, not invested. Say, high morbidity, and the incredible pace of population decreases, people are sitting without work…

— Yaroslav Bashta: There is nothing surprising in the fact that Ukraine has disappeared from the bands of the Western media. Current state of this second largest European countries is that optimistic about it can only be revoked by the official Ukrainian media. Others prefer to remain silent.

The explanation can be found in some statistics: GDP per capita rather, the level of the African (Morocco, Angola) or of poor Asian and Latin American States (Philippines, Guatemala). Of the European countries, worse things are only in Moldova. Economic condition corresponds to the situation in health care. So, in Ukraine there are infectious diseases that put the country in a number of developing countries. The population decline has reached catastrophic performance. In 1991, Ukraine has lived for 52 million, and last year (after the separation of Crimea), there were already 42 million.

Some Russian analysts say some exaggeration, about the africanization of the neighbouring countries. Apart from the above mentioned statistical data about the economy and health care, they mention the prevalence of corruption and crime, and argue that individual oligarchs have created a private army that the infrastructure in Ukraine is falling apart, and the state is destroyed. These political scientists are right that in recent years the events in Ukraine resemble the situation in the former colonies, for example, in Black Africa.

— As far as possible federalization of Ukraine or its dissolution?

— The current Kiev government considers any mention of federalization of crime and firmly defend a centralized state. Because of the national minorities in Ukraine is very tense relations with almost all neighbouring countries: not only with Russia but also Hungary, Poland, Romania, Moldova and Belarus. The only exception is Slovakia. Kiev has already missed the time for peaceful federalization of Ukraine, so the eventual collapse of the state.

— And there is a threat that Ukraine will divide those countries that parts of it belonged to in the past?

— What to 2014 seemed impossible, has now passed into the category of real-life scenarios. The geographical boundaries of independent Ukraine has identified two Soviet leader. Stalin annexed thereto Czechoslovak Transcarpathia (Subcarpathian Rus), Romanian Bukovina, Polish Galicia and large areas of modern Western Ukraine. Khrushchev adding to it the Crimea.

Given all this, Kiev must proceed with caution to the current de-Sovietization of Ukraine did not have international legal consequences. The Russian annexation of Crimea showed that such a threat exists. The protection of national minorities is a strong argument. However, you described against the development said another powerful argument: the reconstruction of the destroyed region will cost dearly. Therefore any state before the annexation, at first you’ll think twice as Russia in the case of Donbass.

— What’s happening now on the Ukrainian political arena, and what the mood of the citizens? Expert Tomas Haas notes that in Ukraine glorify Bandera and the Nazis…

— It is not only severe Western Ukrainian (Galician) nationalism, which quite naturally appeals to their Nazi roots and traditions, glorifying not only Stepan Bandera and the SS division “Galicia”. Like this, from our point of view, can be seen in the East, where, in a sense, been rehabilitated Stalin. So the fighting in the Donbass — is the return during the Second world war not only in a geographical sense, but also ideologically. In fact we are talking about the collision of two idols — Stalin and Bandera…

— In the Ukraine gives us a negative example? Is there something that is happening in Ukraine and what may happen with us? And perhaps we are already seeing some early signs of this?

— For some time now, there is a gradual Ukrainization of the Czech politics and Economics. Among Czech political parties have already appeared “entrepreneurial” political actors who promote the interests of their owners. I’m talking about the parties Věci veřejné and the ANO, which confirm the penetration of the oligarchs in our political arena. Traditional political parties have adapted to this trend, have adopted the same tools of the struggle for power. Only the owners of these parties more difficult to calculate.

Everything goes to the fact that the profits we will increasingly privatize, and losses to impose on society. For many years Ukrainian oligarchs ruled the country as a firm, therefore, considered the collected taxes of their profit, and now the country is destroyed and can not perform its basic functions. While we still have the opportunity to learn from the crisis in Ukraine and to prevent a negative scenario.

There is another danger. I mean radical Ukrainian nationalists who come to us. The demonstrations against our President always waving Ukrainian flags. Migration often means import of foreign conflicts and the alien ways of their solution…

From July between Ukraine and the EU will operate a visa-free regime. What is the result? Isn’t there a threat that the Ukrainians will start to massively emigrate, including to the Czech Republic? Wouldn’t that be dangerous for us? For example, Ukrainians can legally or illegally to flood the labor market and the like…

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko suggests that after the introduction of a visa-free regime, the number of people daily crossing the border with the European Union, will increase from one hundred thousand to one hundred and twenty thousand. For us it is not dangerous. However, a survey was conducted in which Ukrainians were asked what they would do in the event of a sharp deterioration of the economic situation in their country. 60% of young people said that they will go abroad. And it can become quite a serious problem to which we must prepare. The development of events in Ukraine makes this catastrophic scenario is very likely.