A report issued by the International crisis group (ICG), according to which Armenia and Azerbaijan closer to war than ever 20 years after the ceasefire, most likely reflects reality. Another thing conclusions on the fact that the escalation will be drawn two main regional powers — Russia and Turkey, “having agreements with Armenia and Azerbaijan respectively.”
Note that the international crisis group in anticipation of the June visit to the region the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk group issued a document, the text of which it is noted that any escalation can quickly spiral out of control and the danger of more deadly fighting with the use of highly destructive weapons is real.
In g believe that failure to deter future escalation, “will likely lead to heavy casualties, combined with foreign intervention. The deployment of troops from any of the regional powers will have a profound influence on Armenia and Azerbaijan and their sovereignty at a time when the two countries just celebrated the 25th anniversary of independence,” the report says (by the way, Azerbaijan has not commented on the independence Day and Republic Day — approx. ed.).
But what’s the intervention of the regional powers — Russia and Turkey? Azerbaijan, for example, was not going and not going to attack Armenia, which is included in the CSTO, along with Russia, Kazakhstan and some other countries. Turkey to fight in Karabakh for Azerbaijan will not, however, care about the security of Nakhichevan.
The thing is that Yerevan is not the first year trying to blame Azerbaijan that the armed forces of our country shelling the territory of the Republic of Armenia. So the other day there was information that Azerbaijan opened fire at the border village of baghanis, Tavush region, RA.
According to the head of the village Narek Sahakyan, Armenia’s baghanis, because of the actions of the enemy (Azerbaijan) in one of the houses in the village damaged roof, another drain. Apparently, the locals by telling about the fire, so I decided to get money from the state to patch up their homes.
But in General, with the opinion of MCG’s hard to disagree: the region is living in anticipation of war. And has already begun the shelling of Azerbaijani settlements of the Armenian army.
ICG noted that Armenia insists on reducing the risks of security for Nagorno-Karabakh until the beginning of substantive negotiations. At the same time, Azerbaijan is disappointed with the perennial preservation of the status quo and is concerned that additional security measures can further strengthen it.
According to analysts of the ICG, the best way to prevent the resumption of war — ordinated actions of Russia, USA and France together with a strong involvement of the management.
“They should also put pressure on the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan to mitigate hostile rhetoric, to soften their negotiating positions and to acknowledge, not only privately, but publicly that this conflict will ultimately be resolved only through negotiations, not force,” the authors of the document.
But what can the OSCE MG co-chairs to make, given the ambiguous attitude towards him? And it is still fueled by the statements of the Armenian experts and diplomats, who are pleased that the OSCE Minsk group changes positions (in favor of Armenia — approx. ed.). This, for example, said Shavarsh Kocharyan, Deputy Minister of foreign Affairs of Armenia.
But according to Armenian political analyst, Aghasi enokian, which he announced in an interview with “Lragir”, at present, the Minsk group has an important mission — to keep the Karabakh conflict in the framework of the negotiation process and to prevent its military development.
“I think that the forthcoming visit also pursues this goal. It would be naive to believe that there can be reached some agreements and solutions in the current Syrian events, the militarization of the region, the aggressive foreign policy of Russia and the uncertainty of U.S. intentions. The Karabakh conflict was often used by the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk group, especially Russia, to offset losses in other regions or increasing pressure”, — he said.
All this talk about the war, trying to prevent it — what are they?
It is obvious that Armenia wants to use the recent designation of the Armenian General Yuri Khachaturov to the post of Secretary General of the Organization of collective security Treaty (CSTO). And it hardly concealing said Vice-speaker of the Armenian Parliament Eduard Sharmazanov at a recent meeting with the Ambassador of Belarus Igor Nazaruk. “On the Karabakh issue needs to remain true to the official position of the CSTO,” — said Sharmazanov.
However, the Belarusian Ambassador ignored this passage Sharmazanov, but the message of the Armenian leader was clear. Especially given the start of the shelling of Azerbaijani settlements of the Armenian army and the provocative statements from Yerevan that Azerbaijan allegedly shelled settlements in Armenia.
The appointment of Yuri Khachaturov Secretary General of the CSTO has already led to the intensification of provocations to try to involve the collective security Treaty organization and Turkey in the conflict. That is why the ICG concluded that the growing threat of war.
Whether Turkey is involved or Russian in him? As already noted above, it is unlikely, if only Armenia will not attack on the state border of Azerbaijan, including in Nakhchivan.