The Minsk agreement do not work, but they achieved their main goal — the war stopped. Now we are dealing with provocations, but this is not a war, and militarized world. The real war is happening in another plane. If Ukraine will be able to reform that is very difficult. For economic reform need to overcome the corruption component that has the interests of the class, which is based on Petro Poroshenko.
The West understands that Putin war in Ukraine will not come back. He can’t unleash on Donbass real war, which was in 2014. But I have to pretend to support a hybrid tension to throw the instructors. For this purpose, the DNI and the LC. There always has to maintain the tension, ideological sabotage, undermine, and kill.
In the West, understood that with Putin to engage in dialogue not as a person belonging to a common civilization type, and in the framework of dialogue with such “pseudococaine chiefdoms”. Talking to him is pointless, it is necessary to direct influence of material facts. In peaceful competition, these measures are very effective, sanctions are effective. Putin will lose. He still had not incorporated the Donetsk — knows that the next step will be new sanctions.
In Ukraine, however, believe that the Western measures are too weak. In fact, such measures and led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The strategy of rejecting communism Ronald Reagan moved into the strategy of dropping Putin. He threw from the group of eight, Russia’s nominal GDP is already below South Korea. The country is in a stalemate, Putin is isolated. Then he has no ability to move is too heavy there will be consequences.
Putin once again lost in Europe. Attempts to split the European Union, to embroil France and Germany, to carry out marine Le Pen did not succeed. The West on Ukraine’s side, although unhappy with the way she behaves.
You need to understand that in practical terms, Putin has nothing. It has no economic, demographic, and technological resources.
Putin controls the media, and, accordingly, the representation of the population about what is happening in Russia. With limited access to alternative sources of information most people are deeply disoriented. Therefore, any economic, foreign policy failures, and isolation are presented as signs that Russia rises from knees. As it was under Stalin — may, we began to live worse, but that’s because we all envy.
To respond to adverse life should be, tightening the belt and uniting around their beloved leader, to repel the hostile outside world. In North Korea, nothing to eat, but all the people around the leader and prepares nuclear response. In Russia the same, but in a milder form: up to a third of all money spent on military programs, cut spending on education and health, worsening standards of living. But Putin is not affected, his image is separated from the daily challenges, he is fighting against American imperialism.
So Putin is to maintain a sense of war. But he understands that the feeling of war is good, and for conducting the real war we need resources, but they are not. But he was a real war and not needed, he needs the hybrid war. The population lived in a state of stress, were willing to die in the name of ideals, constantly felt the external threat. People should understand that it without Putin will not survive.
In Russia there are people who are aware of the situation, but they have no tools to change it. So they leave the country. Putin is to hold his regime, would have to be mounted internal repression. While the scale of these repressions is incomparable with Stalin’s times, or North Korea.
Next year Putin will have to escalate the Patriotic rhetoric, as there are no advances in the agenda no. Therefore, to maintain their status in the presidential election will have to use negative stimulation of fear. So, we need to say that without Putin we will destroy: come and NATO wrought boot us trample. For this to work, people need to give evidence. So next year we should expect virtual exacerbations, accompanied by the material provocations, which will look like the offensive from the Ukraine. The logic is — we, the Russians, forced to fight back and rally around Putin. I think that Putin’s strategists are waiting and willing to provoke large-scale actions on the part of Ukraine. Putin will play in the giveaway, invited Ukraine to aggression, to advance in Donbass. In the Ukrainian propaganda space it will be perceived as the restoration of control of Ukraine, and in Russia — as aggressive steps.
This will give the occasion to speak to people and say that “fascist” regime destroys the brothers of Russia in Donbass. I hope that the Ukrainian political class understands this. Although, judging by the actions of the so-called party of war, maybe not. You need to understand that the desire to advance in the Donbas could help Putin and increase the level of support. In Russia they say that the enemies are everywhere, so we have to be patient and forget about economic reform, and then come the Ukrainians and capture us. You have to understand that it works.