The results of the first round of the presidential elections in France were not only the success of Emmanuel Macron, but a triumph of the sociologists, who almost unanimously in the accuracy of predicted results. The results are also almost completely smoothed the intrigue of the second round, where the expected wins with a difference of at least 20% of the leader of movement “forward!” (a rough guideline is 60% to 40%). However, in all this unanimity, there is a point of view that the outcome can disagree fully with the data of sociologists. There are factors that make the second round not as routine as it looks at first glance.
First of all, a big disappointment traditional right-wing and left-wing forces, deprived of the possibility in the second round of elections of the home country to choose according to the classical scheme between a Republican and a socialist. The present elections were marked by new ideological schism, which opposes the progressives and the anti-globalization, but leaves a significant part of the electorate to exercise their choice within the traditional paradigm. This is the first presidential election in the history of France, when the two major political parties, alternating in power, suddenly lost the ability to fight in the second round for the presidency. Voters, accustomed to the logic of right-to-left and not wishing to support any of Macron or marine Le Pen, was in a difficult situation between the choice in favor of so-called useful vote (for the lesser evil) and voting with their feet.
According to OpinionWay, only 41% of voters françois Fillon is ready to support the Macron, and 31% of marine Le Pen. The voters of Nicolas DuPont-Aignan split exactly in half: 37% for marine Le Pen and Macron. Left shift of the electorate of the Macron, as well as public support for the deeply unpopular françois Hollande significantly reduce the attractiveness of the leader of movement “forward!” is for the right side of the electorate.
Key base fuel rating of Makron remains left voter, but he was at a crossroads. The crisis of the socialists, together with a dynamic and very successful campaign of the charismatic leader of “the Rebellious French” led to the surprisingly high result of Jean-Luc Mélenchon — almost 20%. However, he’s the one who refused to recommend to their constituents to support the Macron. According to OpinionWay, 50% gave him votes ready to support the leader of movement “forward!”, but 17% have already decided to vote for marine Le Pen, and 33% prefer to abstain. And this is only the beginning of the campaign for the second round. The plot thickens around the supposedly secretly waged a campaign to win over the voters of Mélenchon in the camp of the National front. On the Internet circulates a leaflet “the Future together — and with marine Le Pen”, where the points are similar to the theses of the programmes of the two candidates. Twitter is gaining popularity hashtag #sansmoile7mai: “may 7 — without me”, and the choice between Him and marine Le Pen is presented as a choice between plague and cholera. Jean-Luc mélenchon of these slogans distanciruemsa, but the network appears more and more calls exactly like his sympathizers to vote with their feet and to support the leader of the National front.
Problem two — the formation of the National front of marine Le Pen is increasingly systematic political force, not only signifying its firm place on the political map of France, but also projecting its significant expansion. Today, one often encounters statements of the experts and pollsters that the election of marine Le Pen is only a matter of time for the next campaign, she will have a real chance. “Maybe devil is not so terrible as he is painted?” — the question often asks himself the French voter, and a third, as the famous expert on the National front Nonna Mayer, at least once in their life voted for the national front.
Turning from a marginal, radical forces in the system and more respectable, marine Le Pen began to draw to their camp a large right-wing politicians, not just refused to vote for the Macron, but campaigning to support the leader of the National front in the second round, the situation is exceptional compared with 2002. And the explanation presented here is comprehensive, making support for marine Le Pen issue is not a simple forced choice, colorful, complex structure motives.
So, a former Minister under Nicolas Sarkozy, Christine Butene stated that “the macron is impossible. He is the embodiment of everything I don’t like: liberal libertarianism, globalization, money, banks”, — she said in an interview with Le Figaro, stressing that a vote for marine Le Pen does not mean support for the National front. A former MP from the right Francoise, Estelle responsible for the campaign of françois Fillon in the Northern departments of the country, are ready to vote for marine Le Pen purely pragmatic reasons: in its opinion, this will create the conditions for victory “Republicans” in the parliamentary elections, the formation of the majority in the National Assembly and a possible coalition Nicolas Barua (who supported Fillon and considered him a top contender for the post of Prime Minister) and the National front. However, Baruah tries to gently flirt with Him, offering him as head of a coalition government, if the right, of course, will get a majority after the elections in June (mandatory disclaimer, to avoid being branded a traitor). But interestingly there both part of Republicans in search of salvation for his party is ready to give President marine Le Pen, believing it give them chances in the parliamentary elections.
Among the right there are those who make the choice for purely ideological reasons: the mayor of the Wyss Richard Trinquier from Republicans (though, supported the election of Nicolas DuPont-Aignan) in his Twitter hinted that they will vote “for France,” removing support for Makron or other options of electoral behavior (“against all” or voting with one’s feet). He is known Islamophobic statements and clearly demonstrates the interest in the key, and most radical theses of the program of the National front and its call is clear: for Le Pen in the second round.
Thus, one should not forget that most of the leaders of “Republicans” in one form or another called for the observance of “Republican discipline”. Fillon, Sarkozy and Juppe, three key leader of the Republican party, called for a vote against marine Le Pen. The leaders of those regions, which won the 2015 national front by using the left — Xavier Bertrand, Christian Estrosi and valérie Pécresse in favor of active support of Macron. There was even the idea to organize a nice joint meeting with Estrosi Makron. And Estrosi, former Minister of agriculture Bruno Le Mayor does not exclude that they will work in teams of Macron. “We can’t afford to turn France into an uncontrollable country,” said Estrosi. The leaders of the movement “In the way!” actively Spud Republican leaders, often oblivious to the outstretched hands of the leaders of the socialist party (for example, former Prime Minister Manuel Valls). We are talking about the provision of investiture in the parliamentary elections or about the proposals to take up Ministerial posts or even the post of Prime Minister.
Macron, Le Pen and physics
The third problem is ideological fog of Macron. The study showed OpinionWay, only 39% of those who voted for the leader of the movement “forward!” in the first round, believe that his victory will improve their personal situation (marine Le Pen per se as much as 74%). This is the lowest figure among all the candidates of the first round, pointing, said sociologist Bruno Anbar, in the absence of the Macron that is informative attractive project for a large part of his electorate. And half of its voters and all voted for him based on the unwillingness to see the second round of marine Le Pen and françois Fillon. This leads to the fact that the second round of the presidential election turns not to duel Him and marine Le Pen, and in the battle of the arguments for or against the latter.
Problem the fourth — the same indecis — undecided, which was so afraid of sociologists and experts before the first round (they could redraw the entire electoral map), but had no significant effect on the outcome of the vote. According to the latest Ipsos, 12% of those who will go to vote, do not want to reveal their choice; 15% of those who take part in the vote, allow the change of his opinions. To these are added those who don’t have to decide whether to vote at all.
Sprung — the main risk to the Macron this was pointed out causes a stir in the expert community physicist Serge Galam, predicted at the time the results of the referendum in the UK, the victory of Donald trump in the presidential election in the United States and the victory of françois Fillon in the primaries right (when still believed in the future of presidential Alain Juppe). “It’s funny to watch how sociologists proud of their forecasts. They are right, but there is nothing to insure against new mistakes,” he warned, stressing that we should not ignore the possible victory of marine Le Pen. First, he points out, it is extremely dynamic campaign. Indeed, in the first days after the election, she immediately returned to active travel, while the Macron criticized for premature and ugly celebrate his victory in the prestigious Parisian restaurant “Rotonde” (as if the second round is already in your pocket). Second, it specifies a physicist, on the day of voting can play a different explanation of the refusal to support one candidate or another: “Voters who voted for the Fillon or Jean-Luc Mélenchon, has built its analysis on the basis of critics or hollandise, or liberalism. For them to vote for the Macron in the second round the question of the ethical and ideological. In addition, they are filled with the bitter resentment of a stolen victory, because Fillon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon did not have just a little bit to pass the second round”.
In their model, Serge Galam shows that assuming that now the ranking marine Le Pen, 42% (this is the biggest indicator of all sociological groups), and the turnout will be record low 76%, in the end, the leader of the National front may score 50,07%. This is assuming that 90% of those who were prepared to vote for marine Le Pen, will go to the polls, while the electorate of the Makron will be only 65% of those who declared their intention to support the leader of movement “forward!”. In other words, the voter Rules at the last moment before the second round may decide to stay home. To do this quite a bit: weak campaign Rules and a slight increase in the rating of marine Le Pen is only 2-4%.
The researcher repeatedly stipulated that this is only a hypothetical mathematical model, which does not indicate a real chance marine Le Pen to occupy the Elysee Palace. However, his analysis, he urged colleagues to be careful and take into account wider factors that experts tend to underestimate.
But in fairness it should be noted that while the chances of implementing the scenario described above is still not very much. According to Ipsos, the confidence in their choice among the respondents remains very high, and range is just not the voters of Makron (8%), and the electorate of marine Le Pen (15%). Another argument against marine Le Pen is a relatively low priority for the profile of the voter: the fight against terrorism is only the fourth place among the problematic issues, migration in the fifth. The first places are occupied by such issues as employment, social protection and purchasing power. Finally, a very convincing argument against all the talk about a possible victory of marine Le Pen is the fact that today, anyway, the difference in ratings is 20%, while in the eve of the referendum in the UK, and ahead of the US presidential elections, the competition was conducted over a few percent.
In fact, one of the most subtle traps for Macron may just be his confidence in his victory, which greatly affects the expectations of the electorate in respect of the election results. If marine Le Pen will not work, and the Makron has one foot in the Elysee Palace, it is easier to stay away from is not very clear and often not the most pleasant choice. This may be the case when the lack of intrigue and routinization of the campaign can affect the original voting data.