When you consider that North Korea is in possession of nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles for more than ten years, why such a panic arose right now? Because North Korea is focused on nuclear breakthrough. The regime openly stated that he is rapidly approaching the creation of an Intercontinental ballistic missile that can reach the US and thus destroy any American city — is just Kim Jong Ynu (Kim Jong Un) click the button.
North Korea not bluffing. They have made significant progress in developing solid-fuel missiles, which can be much faster to put in state of alert and thus easier to hide, which makes it difficult for the enemy to detect and pre-emptive strike.
At the same time, Pyongyang is steadily increasing its nuclear Arsenal. Today, North Korea is approximately 10-16 of nuclear warheads. By 2020, it could produce 100 (for reference — Britain supposedly has about 200 nuclear warheads).
Hence the crisis. We just can’t allow Kim Jong-UN has the ability to destroy American cities.
Some will insist on the policy of deterrence. If this policy is allowed all these years to keep the Russians and the Chinese, why not apply it to the North Koreans? First, because deterrence — even if it is about an intelligent enemy like the former Soviet Union — does not always guarantee success. In October 1962, we were on the brink of nuclear war.
And, secondly, because the North Korean regime to the extreme eccentric. It is a country closed to the outside world, which is ruled inadequate, incredibly violent and unpredictable “God-king”. You can’t rely on Caligula. This barbaric regime based on a cult; and the population of the country — the people-robots. Karen Elliot house (Karen Elliott House) once said that if Iraq Saddam Hussein (Saddam Hussein) is a prison, then North Korea is a colony of ants.
And the colonies can not be effective checks and balances.
If you can not contain it, then you need to prevent. But how? The biggest hope for China — it could use its influence to force North Korea to abandon its nuclear program.
For many years the Chinese tried to threaten (to Pyongyang), but any little bit drastic steps they did not take. They have their reasons. It is not that they are afraid of mass influx of refugees in case of a fall of the Kim regime. The problem is in the fact that Pyongyang is an eternal thorn in the eye of the Americans, as in the case of regime collapse in South Korea (and, hence, America) are up close to the banks of the Yalu river (along which runs the border between China and North Korea — approx. transl.).
So why should the Chinese have to help us right now?
For a number of reasons.
They don’t mind tension, but they do not want war. And the risk of war increases. They know that for Americans the threat of a strike Intercontinental ballistic missiles are completely unacceptable. And that the current administration seems to be particularly serious to ensure not to go for this undeclared “red line”.
The creation of a regional missile defense system to counter the nuclear weapons of North Korea gets China’s interests significant damage. South Korea is trying as quickly as possible to establish a missile defense system THAAD — missile complex rolling land-based for high-rise natmosphere intercept medium-range missiles. The same thing can be done and Japan. The strategic task of installing a THAAD system is to track and shoot down missiles aimed with North Korea, but like any missile shield, it inevitably reduces the power of the Chinese nuclear Arsenal and the ability of Chinese missiles to overcome the defense system.
For China, the rejection of action is fraught with the return of American tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea, where it was derived in 1991.
If there is a deepening of the crisis, there is a possibility that South Korea and, more importantly, Japan themselves will start manufacturing nuclear weapons. And it will be for China an absolute nightmare.
This is the basic card that America can play. We need to set a clear goal. At least — freeze test by Pyongyang of nuclear weapons. As the high — regime change.
Because Beijing is very interested in the preservation of (North Korea’s) current government, we could sweeten the pill of a regime change, promising to abandon the idea of reunification of Korea. The new state will not be like Germany, where the Communist state was part of the West by “absorption”. We would accept North Korea as a state independent, but organized according to the principle of “Finlandization”, i.e. pursuing a policy of cautious neutrality and small concessions in relation to a powerful neighbor.
During the cold war Finland was (according to agreement) independent, but in matters of foreign policy is always Pro-Russian. In this case, we would guarantee that the new North Korea will be independent, but always focused on China. For example, the new regime will have to permanently refuse entry into any hostile alliances.
Here it is necessary to negotiate. The agreement must be supported by a demonstration of United States resolve. A pre-emptive strike on nuclear facilities and missile systems of North Korea would be too dangerous, since it almost certainly would have triggered the influx in South Korea millions and millions of victims. However, we could try to shoot down the North Korean missile in mid-flight paths to demonstrate our ability to defend and the inefficiency of North Korean missile forces that can be neutralized technically.
Korean crisis really exists, and it is growing. But we are not helpless. We have a choice. We have the power and money. And it’s time to use them.