Last weekend the world community holds its breath. USA was one step away from a blow to the North Korean regime. Pyongyang’s characteristic manner provoked the patience of the international community. It was assumed that on the day of the 105th anniversary of the founder of the DPRK Kim Jong Il, the country could hold the next, the sixth, the testing of nuclear weapons or ballistic missile launch. Like the North Korean regime did before, and he got away with it.
All accustomed to the fact that the threat of Pyongyang to deliver nuclear strikes on South Korea, Japan and even the United States a blank that this is pure bluff, and in fact North Korea simply seeks, as usual, in exchange for the blackmail of the new package of economic aid from the West.
But this time the situation is different. In the South China sea off the coast of the Korean Peninsula stopped a powerful Armada of the aircraft carrier “Carl Vinson” and several destroyers carrying on Board of cruise missiles “Tomahawk”. From Washington came a dire warning: US will not allow new testing by North Korea of nuclear weapons. And after the missile strike on Syria in danger of repeating something similar, but on a larger scale, the world to believe.
Did the person Kim?
About a day America and North Korea played like a game of “who blinks first”. At first it seemed that surrendered the young North Korean leader — no trials on the occasion of the Day of the Sun (so called in the country the day of the birth of Kim Il sung) was carried out. However, it turned out that Koreans still have launched some kind of rocket, but it exploded five seconds after the start.
He writes in his post on Facebook, Vasily Golovnin, the Russian japanologist, “it was a symbolic action to save the face of comrade Kim against trump: I love you, red monster, not afraid! And your nuclear aircraft carrier too! So now heroically something came shooting out. But make is too small you will be uncomfortable to bash us “Tomahawks,” as in Syria.”
Golovnino from Tokyo, the potential of a zone of defeat of the North Korean missiles probably know better than anyone else. Of course, the findings, though controversial, are doing in Washington and in Moscow.
In the American capital say that Donald Trump managed to convince the Chinese President XI Jinping that China is not profitable cooperation with the DPRK. It is curious that the White house ordered the missile attack on Syria at the moment, when the two leaders looked at each other in palm beach, and he reported this to his guest during a tea party with chocolate cake. According to the correspondent, The Washington Post, XI was silent for 10 seconds, and then asked that trump was transferred again. Apparently, the message made an impression on him.
Of the total of the pest partners
Us-Chinese summit, as already reported, was extremely successful. China of the enemy, threats to national security, world manipulator of currency, economic predator and kidnapper of American workers, as he appeared in the speeches of trump during the election campaign, suddenly turned into a friend and ally of Washington. The President announced to the nation that he had with si “special relationship” (chemistry is, as they say in America) and that they “understand well each other”.
However, the American-Chinese Banquet can ruin insidious 33-year-old leader in Pyongyang.
Si explained at the meeting with trump that in America are wrong when they say that China can, if desired, easy to put the DPRK on his knees. The President of the United States listened carefully to the lecture of the guest about the history of relations between China and North Korea and then admitted that his belief in the enormous influence of Beijing was incorrect. “It’s not that simple,” said trump. What can you do, everything in the world is not as easy as he thought.
Swing on the ruble. Blow…
Well, what’s next? Donald trump, inspired by the success of his Syrian strike, he swung again, this time in a different region of the world. Will hit if he is as good as, if from Pyongyang followed by serious provocation? The white house seems to have been, as so often happens in world politics, in chess the position of zugzwang, when each move leading to a losing position.
In the case that North Korea will conduct a nuclear test, the United States cannot be hit, otherwise it will be compromised the prestige of the President as a strong leader who keeps his promises. But North Korea is not Syria. The North Korean leadership, of course, brags and bluffs, talking about its nuclear capabilities. The country’s ability to launch ballistic missiles is pathetic, they fall in all the wrong places, or explode immediately after the start (such failed test was not less than 30), but the North Koreans under the gun delivered more than 1 million people (according to the number of their army is bigger than Russia), and, most importantly, this country does have heavy artillery capable of inflicting a crushing blow to the 10 million of Seoul, which is just 24 kilometers from the border of the two Koreas. Finally, in the case of full-scale hostilities are vulnerable 35 thousand American military personnel stationed at bases in South Korea, in the danger zone are the Islands of Japan, where tens of thousands of American military.
Almost certainly it can be argued that military strategists suggest Trump not to rush to make a decision, because the number of victims may be too high. The most risky option and the least effective is the potential impact of “Tomahawks” in the North Korean missile positions. Pyongyang then just carry out his promised “revenge” and try to strike at us ships and us bases in the South of the Peninsula, but the regime itself will survive and the conflict is resolved.
While the United States rely on diplomatic and economic measures. Vice-President Mike Pence, who is now in the framework of his Asian tour in Seoul, said that “the era of strategic patience” toward the DPRK over.
“There was a period of strategic patience, but the era of strategic patience is over, — he stressed. — The United States will support the iron Alliance with South Korea and to seek peace through strength”.
In Washington understand that the failed launch of North Korean rocket (it took place, incidentally, during the approach of Pence to Seoul) does not lead to de-escalation of the conflict. Ahead of the 85th anniversary of the armed forces of the DPRK, and this anniversary can become a new point of confrontation with the United States. Trump said the other day that North Korea “is a problem”, but “this problem will be solved”. It can happen in the case if the President will assure that after a couple years of Kim Jong-UN will have the means of delivering nuclear warheads, capable of hitting U.S. territory. And then the amount of possible casualties in case of war with Pyongyang may be considered acceptable, because in a nuclear attack on America there can be many times greater. In this situation, trump can take the risk.
In Russia not afraid of war
In Russia, there is little fear of the possible American strike on North Korea. The leader of this country with his apparent sadistic few who feels sympathy. But the events in the East of Russia all watching the exciting computer game, especially because the current crisis is not the first and everyone thinks he is, like previous ones, will end in nothing. With some indifference, the specialists argue about the harms of radioactive contamination of Russia. Some claim that because the dominant in that region the prevailing winds, the radioactive cloud will go South. Others, conversely, believe that it is within two hours will cover Vladivostok.
“You can advise someone of the experts on the DPRK?” — a question often heard in the social networks from the workers of the pen, who needs to give a qualified opinion. A recognized authority Andrei Lankov, orientalist, now works at the Seoul Institute of Kunmin. He believes that, although work on weapons of mass destruction in North Korea, as far as we can judge, been very successful, from the first test run we are probably not even months or years — and not the fact that this launch will be successful. In the meantime, the strike at North Korea, nobody wants, it will lead to serious consequences for the United States, and Donald trump.
“The current panic in the media should not be taken seriously — says Lankov. — Although the election of Donald trump President of the United States, as well as the success of the North Korean missile increase the likelihood of full-scale conflict on the Korean Peninsula, this probability is still quite low.”
But there are other opinions. Military commentator Gazeta.ru Michael Khodarenok carefully counted the number of U.S. military ships and aircraft that may participate in the attack on the DPRK, and the number of “Tomahawk” and other missiles at the disposal of the US and concludes that the American Armada can repeatedly carry off the face of the earth points senior management, communications centers, air defense facilities, nuclear test sites and position areas of missile forces of North Korea.
“It can happen so quickly that Kim Jong-UN just did not have time to use his trump card — the few nuclear warheads that are at its disposal,” says Khodarenok.
But with this option we will focus on the global war with unpredictable consequences. The North Korean regime will be destroyed, but the Peninsula can turn into a black hole, a giant wound on the face of the Earth. To the destruction of Korea was a prelude to the Third world, trump and now treats under the palm trees President XI chocolate cake. Russia in this game no one will not take into consideration is its impact on Pyongyang is minimal. Iran, which with the North Koreans linked missile contracts, will also be in the event of a conflict out of the game — it’s not his area of influence. Western European allies will urge the White house to try seven times before you cut. Donald Trump will have to make the hardest decision may be the most difficult in the field of foreign and security policy of America: “to beat or not to Beat, that is the question…”