Blockade in the Donbass will hit the economy of Ukraine – NBU

The national Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has confirmed revised in connection with the imposition of a trade blockade of the occupied territories of Donetsk and Lugansk regions of economic forecasts. About it reports a press-service of the NBU.

Thus, the growth of Ukraine’s GDP in 2017 is expected to reach 1.9 percent in 2018 – at the level of 3.2% in 2019, at the rate of 4%.

The balance of payments deficit, according to the NBU, at the end of the current year will amount to 4.3 billion dollars, or 4.4% of GDP and will remain at the level of $ 4.3 billion in 2018 and 2019, declining in relation to GDP to 4.1% and 3.7%, respectively.

The level of international reserves will amount to 21.1 billion dollars at the end of 2017 and 26.2 billion dollars at the end of 2018. While the determining factor for the forecast of reserves is continuing cooperation with the International monetary Fund (IMF) and obtaining associated with the program funding.

At the same time, according to estimates of the NBU, the blockade the movement of goods across the line of demarcation with ORDO will not have a significant impact on the level of consumer inflation.

The inflation rate, the regulator expects at 9.1% at the end of this year, 6% for 2018 and 5% by the end of 2019.

“The main risk for the implementation of the outlined scenario is how effectively the private sector and the government will be able to minimize losses from the termination of movement of goods across the line of contact in the ATO zone. In addition, as before, a significant risk remains a risk of an immediate escalation of hostilities in the East of Ukraine”, – noted in the NBU.

As reported, while the national Bank continued to ease monetary policy, lowering the discount rate to 13%.