For the past few weeks, Russia is a major theme in the United States. However, only in the political aspect — we are talking about Moscow’s influence in the last presidential election. The following questions are asked: did trump and his team about the actions of Russian hackers who allegedly gained access to the emails of the election headquarters of Hillary Clinton and conveyed this information to the website WikiLeaks? And was there any relevant agreement between the Russian and the camp tramp?
Evidence of this yet, but evidence is lacking. These issues are handled by the FBI, and a few days after a private investigation can begin and the Senate Committee on business intelligence. It will take a few months. Deputies from the Democratic party are doing all they can to stir interest in the subject and receive this support from the critical towards Russia Republicans. Thus, the theme of Russia was to trump a sort of “minefield” and from whatever side it may come to it, he can only lose.
Replaced the euphoria about trump came the disappointment
But what does this mean for Moscow? The former hope for another “new beginning” in bilateral relations under Putin, and the tramp disappeared. In Moscow came disappointment in the new Washington Governor. Experts on foreign policy was initially skeptical about what unpredictable new President in Washington will do better. But during the election campaign over the ocean, the trump is perfectly consistent with the expectations of Russian, when after his performances there was a feeling that the West is really quite “rusted”, which, for its part, tried to convince the Russian propaganda.
The Republican candidate was considered a sort of “spiritual brother” of the Russians. His victory became for the Kremlin a pleasant surprise. In the State Duma, greeted his success with a standing ovation. Media for several weeks spoke in detail about the new main man in Washington, whose name was mentioned even more often than the name of Putin. Now, however, the Kremlin ordered to temper the enthusiasm about trump and took the fence.
Russia seeks to ensure its own influence in Europe
However, what is actually the deal with trump was counting on the Russian leadership? The main success would be the following scenario: trump cancels anti-Russian sanctions imposed by Obama after the annexation of Crimea and the outbreak of the war in the East of Ukraine. It seriously would hurt the EU, where a number of countries, particularly Italy, has long been hope for the lifting of sanctions; and to prevent this, after the relevant decision of Washington would not have been able nor Germany, nor France, nor the other.
In addition, Moscow hoped that the new American President will limit its foreign policy activity of the country. This would be consistent with the Russian concept to gain influence in Europe.
Trump’s statements about the “outdated” NATO only strengthened these expectations. Regarding Syria Moscow was counting on the most accommodating of a new President compared to his predecessor Barack Obama. Before joining trump in the position of Moscow, regardless of the victims, conquered Aleppo and improved their positions before potential negotiations.
Moscow is dissatisfied with the approaches trump
All these features have almost nothing left. So, trump has repeatedly stressed that NATO remains faithful. At the end of may he will participate in the Alliance’s summit in Brussels. The fact that trump demands that the European members of NATO for more investments in the defense sector, may not please Moscow. In addition, trump has repeatedly signaled that the Kremlin could well be regarded as a threat. When Putin during his first phone conversation with trump offered him the extension of the “new start Treaty”, trump was initially not well informed about it, and after a pause, rejected the proposal, because this contract, according to him, was “one of the bad deals” perpetrated by the Obama administration.
Under this agreement, expiring in 2021, Russia and the United States should halve the number of starting plants for missiles with nuclear warheads. Even more unpleasant for Putin were the words of trump, what the U.S. is going to upgrade its nuclear weapons. It also means that trump supports the idea of American missile defense in Europe. This is the most painful issue for the Russian, because thereby violated the strategic balance. However, it is possible only in case of a nuclear superpower will find a way to negotiate. Washington’s demand to return Crimea to Ukraine also could not please Moscow.
Russia is not among the priorities for the US President
To all this we can add that people in the administration trump are less friendly towards Russia than previously thought. Although the Secretary of state Rex Tillerson and led as President of the ExxonMobil group in Russia, criticized the sanctions and Putin received in 2013 the Order of friendship, was that he would not lead a Pro-Russian policy. He knows how usually are Russian and how they can be trusted. Negotiations with them, he will maintain firmly that confirmed his Friday meeting with his NATO colleagues in Brussels. According to him, the Alliance needs to discuss its response to “Russian aggression in Ukraine and other regions”, as well as their next steps in Eastern Europe.
What, in fact, a deal Putin could offer to the American President? Trump might be interested in “friendship” with Moscow against Beijing in the end, it is China, he believes the main threat to the US economy. But Putin needs Beijing as a counterweight to the West, even if the cooperation with the Eastern neighbour does not always meet the wishes of Moscow. So this deal is excluded. In the economic sphere too, Russia can hardly have something to offer to the Americans: oil and gas America itself produces in sufficient quantity, so it makes no sense to invest in the production of energy in Russia. Summarizing, we can say that Russia is not currently a real foreign policy priority for trump.
Putin will have to wait for new successes
At the same time Moscow in 2014 without making any special effort, have accomplished much in punishing Obama for his reckless statement about Russia as a “regional power”. A small and successful war in the Crimea and in Eastern Ukraine, Putin has damaged relations with the West, but again won a lot of fans in the country. A year later he is going to participate in presidential elections. The Kremlin is counting on voter turnout at 70%, as well as an equally large number of votes in favor of Putin.
However, a strong mobilizing effect of the annexation of the Crimea between the matter closed. But gradually a growing number of failures in Syria. In Ukraine the situation does not develop, neither in the positive nor in the negative direction. How will the upcoming elections in France and Germany, impossible to predict. The economic situation of Russians are not happy. Scenario for the further growth of Putin’s popularity would be a rapprochement with America — as a confirmation of the great significance of Russia in the world. But this does not have to speak.
Now Putin is something of a gambler in a casino, which is with bad cards in hand decided to bluff and managed to win a big amount of chips. In the euphoria, he went to a bar to celebrate their success, but the bill for the drinks was very high. And when he returned, the window where you can exchange chips for money, was closed. And now he had no choice but to sit at this window and wait for it to open again.