The future of the European Union depends not only on how the relationship will develop between the Europeans and their relations with the rest of the world. And an important part of this world is Russia. The Europeans are trying to talk about it as little as possible. Perhaps, in order to support the part of public opinion, which with admiration and sympathy looks at Vladimir Putin. But if you look at a map, you will notice that Russia in any case will play a significant role in shaping our future. A few days ago marine Le Pen friend took in Moscow. Here is the scenario, if she becomes President of France: the European integration process will stop and the result will be the acceleration of the spread of Russian influence, lost control of Europe. This is the paradox of supporters of sovereignty: they are defending “freedom”, “independence” from “tyranny” (SIC) of Brussels, but the risk to put European countries under the influence of powerful continental powers with illiberal traditions.
The Hostility Of The Trump
But even if Le Pen does not win the elections in France and in other countries will decrease the pressure of skeptics, the problem will not disappear. Our relations with Russia will be due even future U.S. policy. If the hostility of trump in relation to the EU go into hostile actions, if NATO will lose the remnants of any value to Americans, Europe is gripped by despair and unable to deal with its security, wants to seek protection from Russia. Russia will be very glad. It can start with the help of the Europeans in opposition to Islamic terrorism, taking advantage of their strong position, won in the middle East.
We will pay dearly for this assistance. Replacement, even if only partial, of the United States by Russia in the role of Lord protector of Europe will have a variety of consequences. This will slow down European integration: internal disorganizing movement will overlap the Russian pressure.
Russia even in the future needs a split in Europe. Another consequence will become more blatant and aggressive use of energy blackmail with the aim of exerting political influence. In addition, the split exists today, albeit only in its infancy, almost all European countries, the main political line of the watershed will be conducted between Pro-Russian and anti-Russian movements. Russia, which is known to be able to act very cynically, will easily be able to Finance (even more than today) and to strengthen Pro-European political groups. Finally, gaining in Europe, the political weight of a powerful country that has never in its history was not a liberal democracy, it would destroy all the European tradition, having infected them with Bacillus authoritarianism. And needless to say about the possibility of military conflicts that could erupt not only in Ukraine, but also along the borders of the countries-members of NATO (Poland, the Baltic countries) who do not want to tolerate a new Russian influence.
The increase of Russian influence
If the above scenario is implemented, after ten years in different European countries even publish articles like the one that you are now reading, may not be politically risky. Fortunately, the future is not yet written. It we write. Growing Russian influence begins to cause concern not only for the Europeans, who hope that the Europe of the future will be all liberal, but the Americans, who, in addition to a hostile attitude towards the Trump, also a lot more alert to international political stakes. Perhaps today it is still possible to do something worthy to stop (lots of) Pro-Russian parties in Europe to gain strength and win.