It seems that the events in Belarus once again becoming more and more alarming turn. After the past, in particular, in Vitebsk, Brest and Grodno protests against the so-called tax deadbeats, a demonstration was held in Minsk, which was accompanied by mass arrests. 2017 can determine what will be the future of the Belarusians.
In the Belarusian society is growing dissatisfaction with President Lukashenko, at the same time, the increasing pressure from Moscow. The escalation of protest with the large-scale doctrines “the West” that Russia has planned for the fall, can lead to events that could lead to serious consequences.
Just look at the map to understand how far the destabilization of Belarus will complicate the situation in the entire region. Belarus borders with the two Baltic States, including Latvia, where the potential of the Russian-speaking minority, relatively close to the Belarusian border, is the capital of Ukraine. In addition, there is the question of the Kaliningrad region and the Polish minority in Belarus. All of these topics fall within the scope of the special interests of Moscow.
Once (not without reason) said about the problem of the “Balkan cauldron”. You get up there in front of us now is the problem of the boiler Belarus, in particular its geopolitical importance? Of course, it is difficult to nourish sympathy for Lukashenko, but is it possible to wait and be willing to change in Belarus occurred on the old scenario of the early 1990s? Situation, including in our part of Europe has undergone since then a radical change. The European Union is full of himself and has no idea what he can do on the Belarusian issue. USA trump in terms of the concept of politics in our part of the world remain a mystery (the solution of which we are not close). Thus Russia has in Belarus is a great opportunity to make the next after Ukraine and Syria, a move that will undermine the strategic stability of the West.
The pessimistic scenario of development of events in Minsk will bring Poland is enormous in its significance changes. If Lukashenko will lose the power of Russia in Belarus will have a free hand. And then we can lose our Eastern neighbor (no matter that he was a quasi-state structure) and to develop into a true frontline state.