Israel must act very cautiously

The script known anxiety is associated with threats from the North or reinforcement of enemy forces on the opposite side of the Northern border, the fear that these tensions will have an impact on the Israeli home front. All this led to that, which I was trying to avoid war. This happened in 1967 and 1973. Air collision of the Israeli and Syrian forces became a prologue to the six day war and the Yom Kippur War. It can happen now — as a result of clashes between the Israeli air force and Syrian air defense forces. In such a situation requires exceptionally balanced policy to avoid large-scale military confrontation.

Until recently, a separate Israeli air strikes, associated with the desire to prevent smuggled to Shiite militants of strategic weapons from Iran, as well as symbolic of the reaction of the Syrian Assad army and Hezbollah, have not led to a significant change in the balance of forces in the North. However, the unspoken rules of the game have changed in recent times. This is due to the Russian intervention in the region on the side of the Assad regime. Russia has saved the Syrian ruler from total collapse in exchange for the strengthening of the Russian military bases on the Mediterranean coast in Syria. Iran is also interested to settle in this coastal zone. It was one of the main topics of the talks between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in early March.

It was after this meeting, the IDF attacked a convoy of weapons destined to Hezbollah. The actions of the Israeli army can be regarded as a result of the Russian-Israeli coordination. However, Syrian forces responded to the strike, and the Israelites first had to use a missile system “Arrow”. This was seen as Israel’s willingness to escalate on the Syrian track. On the days in Syria were eliminated by one of the commanders of the Syrian militia, operating on the side of Assad in the area of the Golan plateau. This elimination of the Arab media have attributed to Israel. To all this, you can add a sharp diplomatic step of Russia — the foreign Ministry was invited to talk to the Israeli Ambassador in Moscow.

Until now Israel has avoided any interference in Syria’s internal conflict, which involved the Russians, the Americans, the Kurds, the Turks, Iran and Hezbollah, al-Qaida and the Islamic state (is prohibited in Russia organizations — approx. ed.). Using chaos in this country, the Israeli army carried out the operation to prevent the transfer of dangerous weapons to Lebanon. But now the situation, apparently, is considerably complicated. And therefore, should act with extreme caution.