The point of no return

Blockade of trade with the DNI and LC, initially perceived as the action of misfits who wanted to draw attention to himself, to the end of the second month blasted the situation in Ukraine. The result of the blockade, became an acute political crisis that has rocked the state system, whose consequences seem to be unpredictable and will need only to be known in the future.

The initiative grew into political outsiders in the end in the campaign seized the attention of the politicized public that came to the fore in discussions in the media and social networks, and resulting in important economic consequences.

Hardly two months ago, when the people’s deputies of Ukraine semen Semenchenko and Vladimir Parasyuk (both charismatics, but without serious political support) and “persons calling themselves veterans of the ATO,” as they were then called, began to block the railroad by which the coal came from the self-proclaimed republics in Ukraine, someone could imagine what it will evolve. The formal reason was for the beginning of the siege, was the dissatisfaction of the radicals by the very fact of maintaining economic relations with the territories controlled by the separatists. Like, the DNI and the LC is a war, and we traded with them. It was found a good catchy title for this is “trading in blood”, the first strong PR move, the organizers of the blockade.

The first response of the government was to intimidate the Ukrainians, that the blockade, they say, will lead to a stop of factories and power plants that can operate only on the Donbass coal. In Kiev, as it now appears, did not yet fully understand the significance and consequences of the blockade and the level of public support. Contrary to the opinion of the authorities, the majority of the population supported the actions of the “blockade” and not afraid of the supposedly negative effects from it.

It was not surprising. Almost three years the war continues in the East of Ukraine. No prospects for its end is not visible. Almost every day dying Ukrainian soldiers, dozens injured. Naturally, society was appalled by this situation and demands decisive measures for the early solution of the conflict, but it is not ready to compromise and concessions. Output, respectively, is seen as a tightening of pressure on the separatists.

Any war, especially sluggish, as the Donbass, is valid razlagalsa on public morality. People do not see in it sense and purpose, or resent the fact how it is conducted. The blockade became like lancing a wound. It showed how much people’s discontent with the government and its policies. To organized the “redoubts” rushed hundreds of volunteers from all over Ukraine. To storm them, the government feared, well aware of the fate of their predecessors.

Organisers of the blockade skillfully used the opportunities offered by the Internet, the same Semenchenko (in the past a journalist and a student of directing Department) arranged an online broadcast on Facebook, bringing to tens of thousands of spectators, its position and information about current events in real time. His popularity and his colleagues grew by leaps and bounds.

The picture is reminiscent of what is called “deja vu” — the country seemed to repeat the events of 15 years ago, like the stock “Ukraine without Kuchma” and others. Recall that these are public actions to weaken the legitimacy of the Kuchma regime and created a situation which made possible the “orange revolution”.

The blockade showed that the post-revolutionary consensus is eroded and no longer exists. In the camp of the winners was split. Naturally enough, all sorts of conspiracy theories and rumors. The main one was that the blockade allegedly aimed at undermining the position of Rinat Akhmetov and managed from behind the scenes by Poroshenko interested in the maximum weakening of the Donetsk oligarch, already weakened after the “revolution of dignity”, when his business Empire was split the front line. Indeed, the figure Akhmetov had been strongly demonized by the organizers of the blockade.

The marginalization of “Donetsk” is, of course, important for Kiev. But first, Poroshenko must remember that the radical activists easily get out of control. Second, the “blockade” is actively curse Poroshenko, discrediting it in every way. This is hardly a shrewd move AP, which can only be a further decline and without that the low rating of the President.

A turning point in the blockade was an attempt to block railway communication with Russia in early March. Semenchenko announced the construction of a redoubt “Konrad Adenauer” Konotop in the Sumy region, far from the Donbass. This was no joke, and such action is threatened with serious international consequences for Ukraine. “Blockade” is deliberately went to the aggravation, and the Kiev authorities had to respond. Before that Poroshenko himself preferred to remain silent, “unaware” of the blockade, and the main speaker, the Prime Minister Groysman with his horror stories about the stop production and the depletion of stocks of coal at thermal power plants.

As a result of clashes on 13-14 March, when riot police tried to disperse the “blockade”, but simply to intimidate them showing that the government is ready and hard measures, there was a threat of a chaotic spread of protests across Ukraine, as called for by Semenchenko and his associates. However, on their call in the center of Kiev came only a small group of supporters, but the fact that such appeals are too reminiscent of the atmosphere before the start of the Euromaidan.

March 15, making sure that the situation is a stalemate, Poroshenko decided to make concessions — the Council has adopted a decision on the full termination of economic relations with DND and LNR. Also under the threat of closure was “daughter” of Russian banks in Ukraine, since before the national security Council collapsed on the MP parasiuk, staged a brawl with the police, and have demonstrated a willingness to resort to force, this decision is not formally looked as a concession to the protesters.

Ukraine today is at the point of bifurcation. How will its future political development — is unclear. On the one hand, the radicals felt his power and now hardly will calm down quickly. To stay afloat and to maintain his reputation, they need to attract the attention of all new shares. On the other, Poroshenko can’t afford to drive themselves into a corner. The attempt to “blockade” directly affect the economy and transport, to create alternative governments and armed groups that are prone to dual power, the reign of the Makhnovshchina.

But the opposition is not reduced to the dilemma the President vs “blockade”. The split went through the entire political system of Ukraine. The party now positioned in their relation to the blockade. The opposition is now rallying a great tool and a slogan. It is clear that the conflict will only increase. Events in Parliament when the Pro-presidential faction 15 Mar resulted in his soldiers of the national guard (for a story about a run-in with Parasyuk), and the opposition faction cried out about the “capture Happy” — proof.

The geopolitical Outlook is less clear. The DNI and the LC get a new trump card in the propaganda war, because Ukraine clearly violate the Minsk agreement, banning the trade and movement of goods. They are even more removed from Kiev, and the decision on nationalization of property — proof. Moscow also cannot stay away, especially if affected branches of the savings Bank. For Poroshenko, the deteriorating foreign policy situation, on the one hand, it is advantageous to strengthen the political positions, when the country must unite in a moment of danger, around their leader, on the other — the crisis has a negative impact on the economy and possible military losses can cause an explosion of discontent.

Whatever it was, but the Ukraine after the blockade another state. She burned the bridges behind them, and the escalation of confrontation both inside and outside has risen to a new level. The most interesting is that today, nobody remembers what happens when the stocks Donetsk coal and coke in the warehouses of factories and power plants will end? Whether the apocalyptic predictions just intimidated or they had a real fear? We will know it soon.