First, Ukraine has shot himself in the foot a blockade of Donbass (DND and LNR wrapped it against Kiev) and now presses the trigger of the gun, which she put himself to the temple on independence in 2014.
In recent days and weeks the plan of Vladimir Putin on Ukraine, which many considered too “soft” on the background of the mass murder of the population of Donbas, gradually begins to unfold.
But let’s look at the story from the beginning. During Maidan in February 2014, the legally elected President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych was overthrown in a coup, which all Western governments called legitimate. Only now he wasn’t even from the point of view of the Ukrainian Constitution.
Former member of Parliament until 2014, Volodymyr Oliynyk made a detailed report about these events, which showed that the coup of 2014 was absolutely unconstitutional.
In short, after the departure of Yanukovych forces of Maidan through Parliament changed the Ukrainian Constitution, returning it to its previous version, to legalize his coup. These amendments were signed and promulgated Turchynov, who was acting President because he was speaker of the Parliament. The problem is that before the publication of the new Constitution in a formal way Turchynov was authorized to put his signature on it. Right it was only the head of the Yanukovych government of Mykola Azarov.
In addition, the Council approved the changes by resolution, and no law that contradicts the Constitution. And MPs can’t even say that it is not aware of the illegality of their actions, as stated in the resolution that the “procedures for the revision of the Constitution of Ukraine, established by the Constitution and prescribed in Chapter XIII of the Constitution of Ukraine, is one of the basic conditions of legitimacy the constitutional order in Ukraine.”
Besides, amendments were based on the law in 2014, which was canceled by the Constitutional court of Ukraine. Decisions of the constitutional court are binding on the entire territory of the country, the final and unappealable. Thus, the new Ukrainian authorities have crossed not only through the Constitution but through a constitutional court which has the exclusive right to determine the constitutionality of a decision.
The icing on the cake becomes the dismissal of Viktor Yanukovych. Article 108 of the Constitution clearly stipulates that there are only four reasons for the early termination of powers of the President of Ukraine: the resignation, inability to perform duties for health reasons, the dismissal of the impeachment, death.
© RIA Novosti, Aleksandr Maksimenko | go to fotoracconti removed from office by the President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych on Independence square in Kiev
Yanukovych did not resign, had health problems and died (here, by the way, it becomes clear why Yanukovych after the overthrow of the persecuted in the East of Ukraine, to kill: this would remove the issue of the legitimacy of his removal. Rescuing it, has created a big problem for the current Ukrainian authorities).
The only legal way for the coup was the impeachment. In article 111 of the Ukrainian Constitution clearly stipulates the grounds for such decision: “the President of Ukraine may be dismissed by decision of the Verkhovna Rada in the impeachment in case he is guilty of treason or other crimes”.
Only now when his dismissal was called another reason. The resolution noted that “the President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych unconstitutional manner refused to perform his constitutional duties not fulfilled his duty.” But such grounds are not provided in the Ukrainian Constitution for the removal of the President from his duties. That is, the decision about the resignation of Yanukovych is absolutely unconstitutional.
In other words, the current Ukrainian government fully and irreversibly illegitimate from the point of view of the Ukrainian Constitution and law, and Viktor Yanukovych is still the legitimate President of Ukraine.
Then you tell me that the Ukrainian authorities are supported by the international community, and that all these facts do not change anything for Ukraine and Donbass. All was well. But the situation has changed.
The fact is that his Russophobic insanity and the quest to prove crimes against humanity Yanukovych to after the fact to justify the coup, the Ukrainian authorities themselves put a gun to his head and prepared to pull the trigger.
In mid-January, some media supporters of the Maidan like “Radio Liberty” published information that was disclosed in 2014, but left on display after the request of the Ukrainian side in the UN to submit a certified copy of the letter submitted by the permanent representative of Russia Vitaly Churkin at the meeting of the security Council on 4 March 2014.
6 January 2017, the UN granted the request and provided a copy of the letter follows.
“As the legally elected President of Ukraine declare. The events on the Maidan, illegal seizure of power in Kiev led to the fact that Ukraine was on the verge of civil war. In the country there is chaos and anarchy, life, safety and rights of people, especially in the Southeast and in the Crimea, under threat. Under the influence of Western countries made open terror and violence, people are persecuted on political and language grounds. In this regard, I appeal to the President of Russia Vladimir Putin with the request to use the Armed forces of the Russian Federation to restore legality, peace, law and order, stability and protection of the population of Ukraine”.
Yes, you are all perfectly see. In March 2014, Viktor Yanukovych, and Bashar al-Assad in September 2015, has requested military intervention to restore order in the country.
So, why Russia did not do this, you ask? We should remember that in that time she had already had to deal with the Crimea issue. Not accepted the coup Peninsula organized a referendum asking whether the population wants to rejoin Russia. Originally it was to be held in may but the date was shifted to 30 March, the day the letter of Yanukovych, and five days later, on March 16.
In that moment, when Churkin, presented a letter to the security Council, the events in the Crimea took hard controlled character, and Russian intervention to protect the population of the Peninsula from Ukrainian neo-Nazi groups allowed the US and their henchmen to raise a howl about the invasion of Russia.
If Russia had accepted the request of Yanukovych, this would mean to take responsibility for Ukraine, which slid into a financial abyss (not to mention the political mess). In addition, Russia is not eager to play the role of world policeman, the US and NATO would have received a perfect pretext for war, but Moscow still had to deal with the situation with the Crimea. Then the referendum confirmed the return of the Crimea and the situation in the Donbass deteriorated sharply. In Syria, the situation was no better. There were too many fronts and risks in the internal and international level, and Russia would prefer to wait.
The most urgent issue was the Crimean. Russia simply could not afford to lose this strategic point. In addition, true to tradition, the authorities prefer negotiation, dialogue and not arms. This is the essence of the first and second Minsk agreement. The Russians remember what they cost Second world war, and prefer a bad peace is good war.
Even if they know that Ukraine is not going to fulfill these agreements, as openly declared 21 February, the Ukrainian MP Anton Gerashchenko on air of TV channel 112.
He said the Minsk agreement is not vypolnyali from the date of signing in February 2015 and was seen by Ukraine as a temporary measure, deliberate deception.
© AP Photo by Mykola Lazarenko, PoolПереговоры of Vladimir Putin, Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and Petro Poroshenko in Minsk
Only now with the adoption of the UN resolution, they became binding international Treaty, which the Ukrainian authorities are not going to perform according to their own admission.
So, how can it look like Putin’s plan? I will give you my point of view, not pretending to what he thought or did (on my part, it would be too presumptuous).
The face of multiple serious crises Putin has decided to wait, to be patient and negotiate to delay the use of weapons and force opponents to reveal a card, show your true face and intentions. And also give on a silver platter weapons against them.
At the sight of trump’s inability to repel the neo-cons, Putin decided that rather long endured, and that once a fight is now inevitable, you need to find the means to win. There may be useful preparatory measures that have been adopted in Russia. This applies in particular to rescue Yanukovych.
It all started with increasingly tough warnings against Ukraine concerning the attempt to undermine the Minsk agreements. The new escalation at the end of January and the blockade of Donbass in early February was followed by Russia’s recognition of the official documents of the DNI and LC for Stripping the republics in the humanitarian and economic terms, and the consequent recognition of the legitimacy of the issuing documents of the authorities (this will be very useful for the future plan).
This was the last warning to the Ukraine to prevent a bloodbath. If she continues to insist on the aspiration to settle the conflict in Donbas by force, than shout louder Ukrainian officials, Russia can then put on the table the trump card, Yanukovych, who, according to the law, still the President of Ukraine. Whatever is said about Western governments.
But why the same old story with a letter to the UN again put on public display Ukraine, not Russia? I think it’s also part of Putin’s plan. If this reminded Russia that the West could accuse her of trying to justify a future invasion of the Ukraine. But once it enters Ukraine, nobody will be able to object to anything, if it then uses Russia (I think Moscow has made Kiev pulled out of boxes cleverly planted Russophobic forces information).
If Ukraine will begin a new offensive and the Russian intervention is inevitable, then Yanukovych will be able, like Assad in September 2015, to repeat the request for Russian military intervention to prevent the bloodbath, not burdening it with too much responsibility and financial burden. This time Russia will accept it, having the legal basis for the intervention from the point of view of international law as well as moral grounds, since she has given Ukraine more than two years for the application is signed, but ineffectual agreements.
Western governments will be yelling, and during the war in South Ossetia in 2008, but in fact, from the point of view of the law, they will not be able to do anything. Russia can reinforce their inaction to the implementation of the Minsk agreements in order to silence the zealous.
Ukrainian army failed nearly three years to win the people’s militia, it is easy to imagine what awaits her in the confrontation with Russian troops. Then Russia can officially recognize the DNI and LC or include them in the Federation by the decision of the population thanks to the first step in the recognition of the documents and of the authorities of the republics (once power is legitimate, this also applies to their initiatives, including the organization of a referendum).
So patiently and decisively Russia supplied Ukrainian authorities to checkmate with their active participation. As stated in the adopted Viking proverb, the adoption of laws to build a country and failure destroys it. The new Ukrainian authorities and the neoconservatives it would be worthwhile to reflect on it.