Poland needs Ukraine. The support of this state-and even assisting in the formation of military capabilities is an area of our vital interests. However, a hypothetical bilateral Alliance with Kiev or even the unification of our defense industry will become too far-reaching step that does not take away from the Polish risks, but rather create new ones. A more secure form of assistance for Ukraine is the training of its armed forces to NATO standards so they could become a worthy adversary for Russia.
The political project of the Union and interaction of enterprises of the military-industrial complex presented on the pages of Rzeczpospolita, the head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on foreign Affairs Hanna Hopko and Deputy Viktor Romanyuk. They propose the concept of agreement, which applies to energy and defense and acts the same reaction to the low efficiency of Western sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea. In theory, such a Union could strengthen the position of Poland in the region, to give Warsaw a tool to influence Kiev, and finally, to expand the area of our security in the East. In practice, however, is a recipe for inevitable disaster.
Our country had once signed an anti-Russian Alliance with Ukraine. It was in 1920, and it ended up that the Ukrainian military, to shame for Poland, were in Polish camps for prisoners of war. The cooperation of the poles should learn one lesson: the Ukrainian army was then (and still now) too weak to be a real ally, and the main burden of war had to take on the Polish army. For the Ukrainians is disappointing, the output looks like so that Poland can no scruples to turn away from the allies, when they cease to need them.
However, for the conclusion of a military Alliance, there is no real basis. Russia, rather, strike on Ukraine and not in Poland, and in such a situation, rather, the Polish armed forces will have to perform the operation on the Ukrainian territory, rather than Vice versa. NATO plans to protect against a possible attack Ukraine because it is not a member of the Alliance. Poland therefore will have to act independently, without the support of NATO forces. Such potential in the field of engineering, logistics, planning and so on we have. Poland is not politically ready to conclude such a Union, in question, because of him she would have to abandon the guarantees of NATO, and it would be suicidal for country step.
The Ukrainian side also creates many obstacles. We would have to conclude an Alliance with the unstable politically government, the armed forces and the political class which are teeming with Russian agents. The war for Donbass showed how “leaky” are the Ukrainian structure. The bilateral Alliance involves the exchange of classified information and passing it on to Ukraine, we would have passed it to Russia.
With regard to the integration of our military industries, Poland’s goal is to replace Soviet equipment to Western, preferably produced in our country, and Ukrainians do not have the sophisticated decisions and deal only with the modernization of Soviet equipment. Such cooperation is nothing Poland will not give.
Ukraine should create the potential for confrontation between Russia, investing in the regular armed forces (what it is, however, consistently engaged) and creating irregular forces, which in the case of the invasion tightened the Russians into a quagmire of guerrilla warfare. And here has a role to play Poland and other NATO countries passing Ukrainians know-how in the field of modern warfare, connecting the Ukrainian military to NATO exercises, sharing with them information about the strengths and weaknesses of the Russian army, engaging in joint analysis of effective ways of dealing with it and finally achieving, the Alliance to put Ukraine those arms, which it lacks. Independently of this, Warsaw should not be done, but in Alliance with the US — completely.
A military Alliance is now a crazy idea, but let’s say, 15 years later, when both parties organizationally, mentally and politically before it Matures, things can change. You need only to Ukraine remained up to that time an independent state.