Battleship: the escalation of the conflict with China occurs before joining Donald trump in the post. Relationships may become a major crisis, said the expert sinologist tenneson a Stein (Stein Tønnesson).
This week, the level of conflict in the world generally rose after NATO sent 3 000 American soldiers in several countries in Eastern Europe, neighboring with Russia. Many hope that the promises of Donald trump to improve relations with Russia will contribute to reducing this tension.
However, hope was somewhat diminished when elected trump the Minister of foreign Affairs Rex Tillerson made clear that the policy towards Russia will be tougher than said trump.
However, tellerservice rattling sabers against another global rival of the USA, China, instills more fear in connection with the probability of collision among the strongest in the world militarily powers.
On the bellicose statements from Beijing Tillerson at the hearing in Congress said that as Secretary he would like to prevent China to gain access to the disputed island group in the South China sea, where China is building artificial Islands with military facilities.
A specialist on Asia at the Institute of peace studies in Oslo (PRIO) Stein Tonnesson (Stein Tønnesson) believes that the current escalation of tension – only a prelude to the conflict that will become more acute.
“In the future, we in the presidency, trump will be destined to experience major crises in relations between China and the United States. If it incline to his side the armed forces in the conflict with China, it could lead to a very serious crisis,” he says in an interview with Klassekampen.
We are sending a clear signal
China has several territorial disputes with neighboring countries in the region, and Tenneson compares the behavior of China “Russia’s seizure of Crimea”, the Ukrainian Peninsula annexed by Russia in 2014.
“We must send China a clear signal: the construction should be stopped, access to the Islands should be prohibited,” said Tillerson.
Under the control of the authorities, the Chinese newspaper Global Times said that the United States can achieve this goal only with the help of a full-scale war.
“If Washington is not planning a large-scale war in the South China sea, other attempts to prevent the access of China to the Islands are idiocy”, the paper wrote in an editorial.
Foreign Ministry: China will respond
During the presidency of Barack Obama secretly stepped up military containment of China. After the election trump the conflict is in the foreground. According to an internal memo from the Norwegian Embassy in Beijing from December 15, which gained access Klassekampen, trump is a “serious concern of the Chinese side”.
Diplomats expect a “much stronger” reaction on the part of China in the future, if trump will continue its provocations, such as the rapprochement with Taiwan.
“There is reason to think that the Chinese side is more seriously looking at the situation than is presented in official statements,” writes the Embassy.
In anticipation of a major crisis
Tenneson believes that “the administration trump is trying as hard as possible to scare the world before coming to power,” and thinks that the world should prepare for a higher level of conflict and constant strife between the two major world superpowers.
“The crisis will begin as a result of trade, Taiwan, North Korea and the South China sea. Then, perhaps, there will be meetings at the highest level between trump and XI Jinping. A lot will depend on how will be these meetings,” says Tennessen.
According to experts, the conflict in the best case will end with the conclusion of mutually beneficial agreements in the worst — war.
“But no parties, particularly China, which is still weaker militarily, does not want war”, — he said.
Those who provoke US, see for yourself
So far, however, trump in China perceive as the weakness of the US and strengthen its position, for example, in the trade.
“Influential forces in the US trying sinuciderea by means of impeachment. Such inner conflicts are seen as a sign that the United States will soon be out. And XI Jinping, and Vladimir Putin in Russia and Erdogan in Turkey see now new opportunities by weakening the USA,” says Tennessen who claim that China will also try to attract closer Europe due to the more “irresponsible States.”
The expert believes that China’s decision on restoration of relations with Norway could be happiness of such a plan and, possibly because of trump’s victory in the elections.
However Tennessen thinks si in China can use the pressure from trump in order to push through necessary economic reforms, now in the face of resistance in the country.
Reforms can, in turn, contribute to the redistribution and the fact that every Chinese will have more money, but again, this can benefit the export industry of the United States.
“China will also benefit because trump is not going to worry too much about respecting the person,” says Tennessen.